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Weapons of Mass Destruction
Intelligence Threat Assessments

Official Documents

• Worldwide Nuclear, Biological and Chemical Weapons, and Ballistic and Cruise Missile Threat for FY 2017 (heavily redacted), DoD annual report to Congress, October 2017
• Acquisition of Technology Relating to Weapons of Mass Destruction and Advanced Conventional Munitions, 1 January Through 31 December 2011, Unclassified DNI Report to Congress, February 2012
• 2011 Report on Activities and Programs for Countering Proliferation and NBC Terrorism, Counterproliferation Program Review Committee, Volume I, Executive Summary, May 2011
• Acquisition of Technology Relating to Weapons of Mass Destruction and Advanced Conventional Munitions, 1 January Through 31 December 2010, Unclassified DDNI Report to Congress, March 2011
• Acquisition of Technology Relating to Weapons of Mass Destruction and Advanced Conventional Munitions, 1 January Through 31 December 2009, Unclassified DDNI Report to Congress, March 2010
• 2009 Report on Activities and Programs for Countering Proliferation and NBC Terrorism, Counterproliferation Program Review Committee, Volume I, Executive Summary, July 2009
• Acquisition of Technology Relating to Weapons of Mass Destruction and Advanced Conventional Munitions, 1 January Through 31 December 2008, Unclassified DDNI Report to Congress, March 2009
• Acquisition of Technology Relating to Weapons of Mass Destruction and Advanced Conventional Munitions, 1 January Through 31 December 2007, Unclassified DDNI Report to Congress, July 2008
• Planning Guidance for Response to a Nuclear Detonation, Homeland Security Council, January 16, 2009
• Acquisition of Technology Relating to Weapons of Mass Destruction and Advanced Conventional Munitions, 1 January Through 31 December 2006, Unclassified DDNI Report to Congress, March 2008
• Acquisition of Technology Relating to Weapons of Mass Destruction and Advanced Conventional Munitions, 1 January Through 31 December 2005, Unclassified DDNI Report to Congress, November 2006
• Department of Defense Chemical and Biological Defense Program, Annual Report to Congress, April 2007 (5.9 MB PDF)
• 2007 Report on Activities and Programs for Countering Proliferation and NBC Terrorism, Counterproliferation Program Review Committee, Volume I, Executive Summary, May 2007
• Department of Defense Chemical and Biological Defense Program, Annual Report to Congress, March 2006 (8.5 MB PDF)
• 2006 Report on Activities and Programs for Countering Proliferation and NBC Terrorism, Counterproliferation Program Review Committee, Volume I, Executive Summary, May 2006
• Acquisition of Technology Relating to Weapons of Mass Destruction and Advanced Conventional Munitions, 1 January Through 31 December 2004, Unclassified DDNI Report to Congress, May 2006
• The Lugar Survey on Proliferation Threats and Responses, Sen. Richard G. Lugar, June 2005
• 2005 Report on Activities and Programs for Countering Proliferation and NBC Terrorism, Counterproliferation Program Review Committee, Volume I, Executive Summary, May 2005 (1 MB PDF file)
• Acquisition of Technology Relating to Weapons of Mass Destruction and Advanced Conventional Munitions, 1 July Through 31 December 2003, Unclassified DCI Report to Congress, November 2004
• 2004 Report on Activities and Programs for Countering Proliferation and NBC Terrorism, Counterproliferation Program Review Committee, Volume I, Executive Summary, May 2004 (1.5 MB PDF file)
• Acquisition of Technology Relating to Weapons of Mass Destruction and Advanced Conventional Munitions, 1 January Through 30 June 2003, Unclassified Report to Congress from the Director of Central Intelligence, November 2003
• Acquisition of Technology Relating to Weapons of Mass Destruction and Advanced Conventional Munitions, 1 July Through 31 December 2002, Unclassified Report to Congress from the Director of Central Intelligence, November 2003
• Acquisition of Technology Relating to Weapons of Mass Destruction and Advanced Conventional Munitions, 1 January Through 30 June 2002, Unclassified Report to Congress from the Director of Central Intelligence, April 2003
• Acquisition of Technology Relating to Weapons of Mass Destruction and Advanced Conventional Munitions, 1 July Through 31 December 2001, Unclassified Report to Congress from the Director of Central Intelligence, January 2003
• Acquisition of Technology Relating to Weapons of Mass Destruction and Advanced Conventional Munitions, 1 January Through 30 June 2001, Unclassified Report to Congress from the Director of Central Intelligence, January 2002
• Acquisition of Technology Relating to Weapons of Mass Destruction and Advanced Conventional Munitions, 1 July Through 31 December 2000, Unclassified Report to Congress from the Director of Central Intelligence, September 2001
• Acquisition of Technology Relating to Weapons of Mass Destruction and Advanced Conventional Munitions, 1 January Through 30 June 2000, Unclassified Report to Congress from the Director of Central Intelligence, February 2001

• The Decision to go to War in Iraq, Report of the UK House of Commons Foreign Affairs Committee, July 2003
• Proliferation: Threat and Response - 2001 Department of Defense January 10, 2001 (~5MB PDF file)
• Proliferation: Threat and Response - 1997 Department of Defense November 25, 1997
• Proliferation: Threat and Response Department of Defense April 1996
• Report to Congress on Response to Threats of Terrorist Use of Weapons of Mass Destruction, January 31, 1997
• United Kingdom House of Commons Foreign Affairs Committee Report on Weapons of Mass Destruction 25 July 2000
• Acquisition of Technology Relating to Weapons of Mass Destruction and Advanced Conventional Munitions, 1 July Through 31 December 1999, Unclassified Report to Congress from the Director of Central Intelligence, August 2000
• Acquisition of Technology Relating to Weapons of Mass Destruction and Advanced Conventional Munitions, 1 January Through 30 June 1999, Unclassified Report to Congress from the Director of Central Intelligence, February 2000

• Weapons of Mass Destruction Technologies
  Militarily Critical Technologies List (MCTL) Part II - September 1998

• Iraq Weapons of Mass Destruction Programs U.S. Government White Paper, released February 13, 1998
• The Acquisition of Technology Relating to Weapons of Mass Destruction and Advanced Conventions/ Munitions July - December 1996 Director of Central Intelligence June 1997
• DCI John Deutch Speech at the Conference on Nuclear, Biological, Chemical Weapons Proliferation and Terrorism - 23 May 1996.
• The Continuing Threat from Weapons of Mass Destruction By Dr. Gordon C. Oehler, Director, Nonproliferation Center to the Senate Armed Services Committee - 27 March 1996
  • Statement for the Record
  • Appendix A--Chronology of Nuclear Smuggling
  • Appendix B--Chemical Agents
  • Appendix C--Biological Agents
• DCI John M. Deutch brief to the Senate Select Committee on Intelligence on the Worldwide Threat Assessment and Question and Answer Session following presentation - 22 February 1996.
• Report to Congress: Update on Progress Toward Regional Nonproliferation in South Asia Bureau of South Asian Affairs, June 15, 1997
• PROGRESS TOWARD REGIONAL NONPROLIFERATION IN SOUTH ASIA US Department of State Report to Congress -- 08 Feb 1994
• NUCLEAR PROLIFERATION - NATO Scientific and Technical Committee - November 1994 - AL 234 STC (94) 8
• 07-11-95 POST-COLD WAR WEAPONS SPREAD SPURS NEED FOR ARMS CONTROL John D. Holum, Director of the U.S. Arms Control and Disarmament, adapted from a 2 November 1995 speech at Georgetown University.
• Weapons programs in Middle East, Asia pose concerns John M. Deutch, Director of Central Intelligence speech to the National Defense University, 27 October 1995
• SMUGGLING SPECIAL NUCLEAR MATERIALS Dr. A. Robitaille & Mr. R. Purver COMMENTARY No. 57 Canadian Security Intelligence Service May 1995
• Report to Congress on Status of China, India and Pakistan Nuclear and Ballistic Missile Programs" received by the House Foreign Affairs Committee on or before July 28, 1993

• The Nuclear Potential of Individual Countries Treaty on Nonproliferation of Nuclear Weapons Problems of Extension Appendix 2 Russian Federation Foreign Intelligence Service 6 April 1995

The Threat of Clandestine Nuclear Attack

• Defending Against Clandestine Nuclear Attack, Defense Science Board, June 2004
• The Clandestine Introduction of Nuclear Weapons into the U.S., National Intelligence Estimate, 1970
• The Clandestine Introduction of Weapons of Mass Destruction into the U.S., National Intelligence Estimate, 1968
• Clandestine Introduction of Nuclear Weapons to the United States, Memorandum From the Joint Chiefs of Staff to Secretary of Defense McNamara, January 2, 1968
• Soviet Capabilities and Intentions with Respect to the Clandestine Introduction of Weapons of Mass Destruction into the U.S., National Intelligence Estimate, 1963
• Soviet Capabilities and Intentions with Respect to the Clandestine Introduction of Weapons of Mass Destruction into the U.S., National Intelligence Estimate, 1960
• Clandestine Introduction of Nuclear Weapons Under Diplomatic Immunity, Special National Intelligence Estimate, 1955
• Soviet Capabilities for Clandestine Attack Against the US with Weapons of Mass Destruction, National Intelligence Estimate, 1951

Other Sources

• Is Saudi Arabia a Nuclear Threat? by Steven R. McDowell, Naval Postgraduate School Master's Thesis, September 2003
• PREVAILING IN A WELL-ARMED WORLD: DEVISING COMPETITIVE STRATEGIES AGAINST WEAPONS PROLIFERATION Henry D. Sokolski Strategic Studies Institute, United States Army War College, Carlisle Barracks March 2000
• Fighting Proliferation - New Concerns for the Nineties Edited by Henry Sokolski, Air University Press, Maxwell Air Force Base, Alabama -- January 1996
• The Political Economy of Nuclear Restraint ETEL SOLINGEN, INTERNATIONAL SECURITY , FALL 1994, PP 126-159 -- A government interested in greater freedom tends to oppose nuclear weapons programs both because this position tends to encourage international trade, aid, technology and investment, and because of potential reductions in government regulations and bloated budgets related to nuclear weapons progress.
• USAFA INSS Occasional Paper #1 Explaining Weapons Proliferation: Going Beyound the Security Dilemma. Gregory J. Rattray, July 1994
• USAFA INSS Occasional Paper #6 Nuclear Proliferation: Diminishing Threat? William Kincade, December 1995
• USAFA INSS Occasional Paper #7 Nuclear Proliferation: The Diplomatic Role of Non-Weaponized Programs. Rosalind R. Reynolds, January 1996
• USAFA INSS Occasional Paper #8 Five Minutes Past Midnight: The clear and Present Danger of Nuclear Weapons Grade Fissile Materials. Guy B. Roberts, February 1996
• USAFA INSS Occasional Paper #10 Weapons Proliferation and Organized Crime: The Russian Military and Security Force Dimension. Graham H. Turbiville, Jr., June 1996
• Russia's Crumbling Tactical Nuclear Weapons Complex: An Opportunity for Arms Control Stephen P. Lambert and David A. Miller Air Force Academy Institute for National Security Studies Occasional Paper #12 April 1997
• NATO COUNTERPROLIFERATION POLICY: A CASE STUDY IN ALLIANCE POLITICS Jeffrey A. Larsen, Air Force Academy Institute for National Security Studies Occasional Paper November 1997
• NUCLEAR THREATS FROM SMALL STATES Jerome H. Kahan US Army Strategic Studies Institute June 13, 1994
• A National Policy for Deterring the Use of Weapons of Mass Destruction ): Dale A. Blackburn; Gregory T. Boyette; Robert K. Brannum; Tommy D. Dickson (Faculty Advisor); William M. Napolitano, Jr.; Dwayne R. Turmelle; Elise M. Vander Vennet; Steven C. Williams Air Command and Staff College 1996
• A Profile of WMD Proliferants: Are There Commonalities? Brian Anderson; Royce H. Dasinger (Faculty Advisor) Air Command and Staff College 1999 - Background and personality characteristics of individuals who proliferate weapons of mass destruction.
• Proliferation of Weapons of Mass Destruction: U.S. Policy and Practice in the Late 1990's Alan C. Bridges; Paul J. Moscarelli (Faculty Advisor) Air Command and Staff College 1999 -- Realism, rather than its stated idealist policies, drives U.S. non-proliferation and counter-proliferation strategy.
• Nuclear, Biological, and Chemical Defense in the 21st Century Army Center for Strategic Leadership - by COL Richard A. Jackson. (4500KB PDF).
• Weapons of Mass Destruction: Title 10 Implications for the Military Army Center for Strategic Leadership - by Kenneth K. Steinweg, William R. Betson, Jeffrey A. Matt, Richard F. Riccardelli, Carmen J. Spencer, and Michael N. Ward. (4500KB PDF)