TABLE OF CONTENTS
FOREWORD..............................................inside front cover
INTRODUCTION...........................................................i
TABLE OF CONTENTS....................................................iii
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY....................................................vii
CHAPTER I. A CHANGING OCEAN ENVIRONMENT
A. CLIMATE CHANGE.................................................I-1
B. IMPLICATIONS OF CLIMATE CHANGE.................................I-1
1. Global Warming..............................................I-1
2. Ocean Temperature...........................................I-2
3. Sea Level Rises.............................................I-3
4. Storm Trends................................................I-4
5. Ice Formation...............................................I-5
C. UNCERTAINTIES STILL EXIST......................................I-5
CHAPTER II. CHALLENGES TO MARITIME SECURITY.........................II-1
A. FORCES AFFECTING MARITIME SECURITY............................II-1
1. Economy....................................................II-1
2. Migration..................................................II-3
3. Non-state Actors..........................................II-18
a. Civil Actors...........................................II-19
b. Non-civil Actors.......................................II-20
4. Technology................................................II-28
a. Platforms..............................................II-30
b. Naval Weapons Systems..................................II-30
c. Navigation.............................................II-31
d. Technological Impact on Asymmetric Warfare.............II-31
e. Ocean Monitoring.......................................II-32
5. Information Operations....................................II-39
6. Law of the Sea............................................II-41
B. DESTABILIZING EVENTS.........................................II-44
1. Political-Military Engagements............................II-44
2. Natural Disasters.........................................II-48
3. Other Emergencies.........................................II-49
CHAPTER III. THE FUTURE OF MARITIME ACTIVITIES
A. COMMERCIAL ACTIVITIES........................................III-1
1. Natural Resource Exploitation.............................III-1
a. Living Marine Resources................................III-1
b. Exploitation of Non-living Marine Resources........... III-7
c. Maritime Safety and Security Requirements.............III-14
2. Legal Maritime Trade and Activities......................III-19
a. Container Shipping....................................III-19
b. Bulk and Bulk-break Cargo.............................III-20
c. Tankers...............................................III-21
d. Nuclear Waste.........................................III-21
e. Port Infrastructure...................................III-22
f. Cruise Ships and Ferries..............................III-24
g. Underwater Cables.....................................III-26
3. Illegal Maritime Trade and Activities....................III-27
a. Drugs/Narcotics.......................................III-27
b. Arms Proliferation....................................III-33
c. Unlawful Migrant Entry Methods........................III-38
B. POLLUTION AND DEGRADTION OF NATURAL RESOURCES...............III-43
1. Coastal Population Growth................................III-43
2. Nonpoint-source Pollution................................III-44
3. Marine Accidents.........................................III-45
4. Ocean Dumping............................................III-46
5. Noise Pollution..........................................III-46
6. Invasive Species.........................................III-46
a. Marine Environ........................................III-47
b. Terrestrial Environment...............................III-48
APPENDIX A. FUTURE TRENDS IN COMMERCIAL SPACE-BASED REMOTE SENSING...A-1
APPENDIX B. PROJECTED SIGNALS INTELLIGENCE/ELECTRONIC WARFARE
INFORMATION WARFARE THREAT TO U.S. COAST GUARD 2010..................B-1
APPENDIX C. UNCERTAINTIES IN MODELING CLIMATE CHANGE................C-1
APPENDIX D. BIBLIOGRAPHY............................................D-1