"Sources and Techniques" Title Page


Chapter 5: Consumer Intelligence Needs Studies

Intelligence consumer studies refer to studies of the consumers of intelligence.

Intelligence consumers are consumers of intelligence or information, including all individuals and organizations that use intelligence or information in the course of scientific research, technological work, production, or management. We refer to the former as individual intelligence consumers and the latter as institutional intelligence consumers. We loosely refer to both as intelligence consumers, or consumers for short. Intelligence consumers are both the consumers and the creators of intelligence and information. Consumers are the reason intelligence exists and has practical value.

The study of intelligence consumers covers a broad area, including the study of the intelligence needs of consumers, the study of the psychology of consumers, the study of the acquisition of intelligence by consumers, the study of consumer intelligence assurance, and the study of consumer training.

Every stage in intelligence work and information work, whether it is the gathering, processing, storage, indexing, or circulation of intelligence, or intelligence studies, is most closely related to consumer studies. However, the emphasis differs from stage to stage. As far as collection is concerned, the emphasis is on the study of consumers' intelligence needs. Today intelligence consumer studies exist as a unique field in intelligence studies and consumer needs studies is one of the key basic research areas in collection studies.

Section One -- Basic Concepts

I. General Human Needs and Intelligence Needs

Consumer intelligence needs are part of general human needs. The theory of consumer intelligence needs was first based on the general theory of human needs. According to Maslow, the well-known American psychologist who founded behavioral science [sic], man has five needs, namely physical needs, need for security, need for social interactions, need for esteem (both self-esteem and esteem from others), and the need to actualize his own ideals. These five needs change in order. As one need is satisfied, the next need in line intensifies. Ultimately the need to actualize one's ideals becomes the most powerful of all. This is the well-known Maslow theory of need system.

As society advances and production grows, the first four human needs are more and more satisfied. Meanwhile, man's high-level need, namely the need to realize his ideals, also reaches its most intense point. Man realizes his various ideals by engaging in all sorts of creative endeavors, the most important of which are science, technology, production, and management. The need to solve the miscellaneous problems man encounters in his creative pursuits gives rise to the need for specialized knowledge. When man searches for a shortcut to scale the pinnacle of science and technology, he must learn from the experiences of his predecessors to avoid reinventing the wheel. Hence the urgent need for full and accurate intelligence or information. Simply put, this objectively existent need for intelligence or information is consumer intelligence needs or consumer needs.

II. Intelligence Needs and Intelligence Behavior

Typically, a person (or organization) with a need for intelligence would engage in various types of intelligence behavior, including formal and informal scientific exchanges, in order to obtain the necessary intelligence or information. We refer to the actions taken by an individual (or organization) to acquire intelligence or information as intelligence behavior. A consumer's intelligence needs give rise to and regulate the consumer's intelligence behavior.

What kind of intelligence behavior does a consumer engage in? Let us analyze it using a diagram developed by F.D. Wilson, a British intelligence expert.

This diagram outlines the kind of intelligence behavior a consumer may engage in. Lines with pointed arrows represent possible lines of inquiry. There are four interrelated sets:

[Diagram omitted]

1, 2, 3, 4 indicate lines of inquiry where the consumer does not rely on any intelligence organization. We can call them Type A lines;

5, 6 indicate lines of inquiry where intelligence organizations are relied on. Here the word "intermediaries" refers to research personnel or material workers and the word "technology" refers to card catalogs, bibliographies, computerized indexing equipment, and other indexing tools. We may call them Type B lines;

7, 8, and 9 indicate lines of inquiry where intelligence research personnel or data workers are relied on to satisfy a need. We may call them Type C lines;

10, 11 indicate lines of inquiry where the consumer directly uses inquiry facilities or equipment.

It is clear from Diagram 5.1 that apart from Type A lines, intelligence or information must be obtained through intelligence organizations in all other lines of inquiry. Intelligence organizations occupy the position of an intermediary, serving as a bridge to satisfying the consumer's needs. Through the intelligence organization, the consumer has access to knowledge not yet recorded as well as tangible recorded knowledge. In our so-called era of "information explosion," when science and technology is highly advanced, no consumer can rely solely on his own abilities; he has no choice but to turn to intelligence organizations. Hence the important place of intelligence work in the process of scientific and technological development.

III. Consumer Intelligence Needs Studies

The study of consumer intelligence needs simply means figuring out consumer needs and the characteristics of a consumer's intelligence behavior and determining if they exhibit some patterns. Naturally, man's intelligence behavior is inseparable from his psychology. Thus when we study intelligence behavior and its patterns, we inevitably have to examine the psychological side as well.

IV. The Rise of Consumer Intelligence Needs and Their Cyclical Process

Intelligence needs give rise to and regulate intelligence activity. When people engage in all sorts of creative activities to obtain the necessary intelligence or information, their creative activities advance into even newer territories and scale even newer heights, which, in turn, gives rise to new intelligence needs, and the cycle repeats itself endlessly. The diagram below illustrates the birth of consumer intelligence needs and their cyclical process.

[Diagram omitted]

Section Two -- Significance of Consumer Intelligence Needs Studies

Consumer intelligence needs studies are an important field in collection science and collection work. Every intelligence system must be connected to a given set of consumers. The consumer is the be all and end all of an intelligence system. As the first link in intelligence work, collection work is even more closely linked to the consumer. Consumer intelligence needs are the basis and purpose of collection work.

I. Consumer Needs Studies Point up a Direction for Collection

As he goes about collecting materials, the first question the collector confronts is this: Whom am I collecting for? What am I collecting? A collector cannot collect at random. The basic purpose of consumer intelligence needs studies is to answer these questions. Consumer intelligence needs studies help familiarize collection personnel with their own consumers and get a firm grip on their intelligence needs. As a result, their collection work would be highly relevant.

II. Consumer Needs Studies Must Be Conducted if the Cost-Effectiveness of Collection Is to Improve

Raising the utilization rate of materials is an oft-discussed topic in China. Judging from survey data collected by the various units, the materials circulation rate generally hovers around 10 percent, regardless of the size of the organization. In other words, between 85 and 90 percent of the information does not live up to its potential as intelligence. There is a major gap between the sources of intelligence and intelligence consumers.

This problem is not unique to China but is something that raises eyebrows around the world. According to statistics published in the Soviet newspaper Pravda, between 70 and 80 percent of the materials in all Soviet libraries were unutilized, 43 percent of the materials in the All-Soviet Library of Science and Technology had never seen a reader, and over 50 percent of the books in Lenin Library had never been used. Let's take a look at the United States. Of the 36,892 books acquired by Hillman Library at Pittsburgh University in 1969, 39.8 percent have never been checked out once, 14.3 percent have been checked out once, 8.3 percent had been checked out twice, and only 2 percent have been checked out more than seven times. Of the books acquired between 1968 and 1975, 48.37 percent have never been touched.

Liu Qinzhi, deputy director of the School of Information Science at Siemens [phonetic] University in the United States, said it well, "The modern library is not a place for storing books. More does not mean better and more complete does not mean better either. Whenever I visit a library, I am told it has a collection of such and such a number of books dating from such and such a year. I nod politely but when I see the thick coating of dust on the gilt-edged volumes, I wonder inside, 'How come?'"

What is the cause of this? One reason has to do with the training of intelligence consumers, another with the way intelligence units and libraries have been publicized. But the foremost reason is the power of inertia exerted by the library-as-book-warehouse philosophy. Regardless of their size, all materials-collecting units strive to be "big and comprehensive." They pride themselves on the size of their collection. The more materials they have, the more powerful they feel. Their collection work becomes a blind pursuit of quantity as they disregard economic profits and cost-benefit comparisons. If this goes on for long, we will be making the biggest mistake in our collection work.

Another major reason is that not enough research has been done on consumer intelligence needs. Collection personnel sometimes do want to be selective. One of the rules in collection work is to be "relevant." There are eight characters written on an order form: "Guojia waihui, jinzhen xuanding," which means "be careful what one chooses to buy because it is the foreign exchange of the country one is spending." Because of their less-than-thorough understanding of consumer intelligence needs, however, they often end up acquiring information that should not be acquired or that is dispensable.

As the information industry develops, the industry's managerial personnel and information collectors have become more and more sophisticated and the concept of "supplementing what is necessary with what is complete" is being corrected. All units are adjusting their collection policy, so the above-mentioned problem will be resolved in due course. Against this new backdrop, the status and importance of consumer intelligence needs studies will become increasingly evident by the day.

III. Consumer Intelligence Needs Studies as a Shortcut to Improving Quality of Collection Personnel

Collection work sounds simple. In some departments it is referred to as "procurement," which lacks any scientific flavor. In reality, however, collection work is a scientific technique. Besides mastering the basic theories, skills, and techniques of collection work itself, a collector must be familiar with the subject matter of his own area of work. Collection is not something a college graduate or even a graduate student is fully qualified to do as soon as he takes up the job. It is no exaggeration to suggest that it takes three to five years of practical experience to train a basically competent collector. In addition, if you want to keep getting better as a collector, you need continuing education.

Whether in an intelligence department or library, collection work is not limited to just one discipline or specialty. In the case of the larger organizations, work is divided according to the sources of materials and the type of materials. The smaller the organization, the cruder the division of labor. In other words, besides collecting materials in his own specialty, a collector must also collect materials in other disciplines. The very nature of the work requires collection personnel to be "jacks of all trades." Moreover, as science changes every day and knowledge becomes obsolete at an accelerating pace, a collector cannot keep up with the pace of the times by just relying on what he has learned at college alone. Instead you must broaden the scope of your knowledge and keep updating it. To take a leave of absence from one's job in order to attend a few courses is not the best thing to do. The best approach is to have extensive contacts with the consumers and study their needs in depth. Our personal experience is that by interacting with a consumer, we are interacting with a teacher, and that by studying in depth one particular consumer need, we are taking a specialized course. As we keep on doing this, over time we become "jacks of all trades" in our own fields as well as competent collectors.

IV. Consumer Intelligence Needs Studies as a Precondition for Becoming Versatile Collection Personnel

Collection work is not always procedural routine work. We cannot go to the client and ask for instructions every time we have to decide whether or not to secure an item or a few items, even if they are routine ones. In our collection work in the real world, we often come across situations where circumstances change rapidly, which requires us to be adaptable as collection personnel. Only when we know the consumers' needs like the palms of our hands can we be decisive at critical junctures and acquire good materials for the country and for our consumers at fair prices, materials that have real use for the consumers, not stuff that is simply put away and forgotten.

V. The Pattern of Consumer Intelligence Needs Is a Guide for Collection Personnel as They Collect on Their Own Initiative

We made the various points above from the micro perspective. The central purpose is relevance, that is, collect whatever the consumer needs. But collection personnel need to be more than that. For one thing, this is reactive. For another, there are tens of thousands of consumers, so it is impossible to satisfy all of them. Therefore, not only must collection personnel be familiar with consumer needs, but they must also detect a pattern to such needs. In other words, they must launch studies in collection science: classifying the consumers and identifying key consumers; determining the corresponding relations between consumer type and consumer needs; probing the causes of the rise, change, and development of consumer intelligence needs and their patterns; and identifying the factors that affect consumer intelligence needs, either objectively or subjectively. To put it differently, after studying specific consumer needs extensively, we should look beyond the appearance to grasp the essence and identify the principles or rules that have general guiding significance for collection work. Collection personnel can base themselves on these principles or rules as they take the initiative to collect. That is the way to infuse collection work with energy and dynamism.

VI. Discovering the Patterns in Consumer Intelligence Behavior Would Help Extend the Collection Personnel's "Feelers"

Consumer intelligence needs give rise to and regulate consumer intelligence behavior. Thus, not only must we conscientiously inquire into and study the consumers' intelligence needs, but we must also look into the patterns of consumer intelligence behavior so that we obtain feedback on an objective level, which can then be used to supplement and verify the theorems or rules we have developed relating to consumer intelligence needs.

Discovering the pattern of consumer intelligence needs would also help extend the collection personnel's feelers. For instance, our predecessors drew this conclusion from their studies: "Every intelligence consumer finds the intelligence and information it needs through informal as well as formal channels. In the eyes of some consumers, the informal channels are more important than the formal ones. To date there are still activities such as the 'invisible college.' Informal channels such as the 'invisible college' are highly valued by consumers mainly because of the key role played by some experts in these collectives. The experts are both consumers and a source of intelligence. The consumers' trust is the main reason why we have this kind of information-seeking behavior." Given this law, collection personnel should take pains to discover the "invisible college" that may exist all around them and find out who is the backbone of such a "college." After making such discoveries, they should extend their feelers toward them and put them to full use, both as subjects of study in their consumer intelligence needs studies and as a sources of materials. Collection personnel should tap the materials on the hands of these experts in order to improve the overall effectiveness of collection work and gradually incorporate informal exchanges into the sphere of formal exchanges.

VII. Collection Personnel Should Take Pains to Increase Their Name Recognition among Consumers and Colleagues.

A collector new on the job often says in surprise, "Why hasn't anyone contacted me to talk business? All the phone calls are for the old comrades. They all ask for this or that person by name." Even among old comrades, the situation varies from person to person. Some people are heavily sought-after, while others are ignored.

Those who are sought-after are the winners. They enjoy a high name recognition among consumers. Name recognition is earned when a collector solves a needs-related problem for a consumer. The more problems you solve for consumers, the more people will come to you and the greater your name recognition.

Collection personnel must not shy away from trouble or look upon dealing with consumers as a burden. Instead they must approach consumers in every way possible and effectively help them solve problems relating to the gathering of materials. At the same time they must be adept at discovering a pattern to things through their myriad contacts with consumers. Such a discovery can guide them and their colleagues as they take collection work to a deeper level. There is much research collection personnel need to do; they must not be content just to muddle through. They must painstakingly establish greater name recognition among consumers and people in the same business. In other words, a collector should have the spirit of Gen Xu, but more importantly, the spirit of Zhen Tianyang.

Section Three -- Essential Attributes of Consumer Intelligence Needs

I. Objectivity

Consumer intelligence needs are an objective reality independent of man's will. They are a tangible reflection of social development and progress.

II. Specificity

The specificity of consumer intelligence needs is complex and is affected by two major groups of factors: one having to do with the consumer's own personal attributes and the other with the environment the consumer is in. The first group includes such factors as occupation, academic credentials, job responsibilities, age, his command of a foreign language, specialty, psychology, interests, and expertise. The second group consists of the general and specific policies of the government, the nation's history, cultural tradition, level of scientific development, sources of intelligence, and the state of intelligence services. The specificity of consumer intelligence needs is reflected in many ways, including:

1. Different types of consumers have different intelligence needs;

2. Because they differ in their objective environments and the responsibilities they assume, consumers of the same type may have different intelligence needs.

3. As a consumer moves from one stage of a project to another, his intelligence needs may change.

4. Some consumers from the same type and in totally identical environments nevertheless may have different intelligence needs. This is because they have different personal interests, specialties, and "ideals." Hence the diversity of their intelligence needs.

5. Some consumers belong to the same type and the same objective environment, undertake similar responsibilities, and have similar interests and specialties. Nevertheless, because they vary in personal background, experiences, and habits, their intelligence needs each have their own special characteristics. Take a most simple example. A professor who has studied in Germany often first inquires about the situation in Germany, while a professor who has studied in Japan would first inquire about the situation in Japan.

The complexity and diversity of consumer intelligence needs and the difficulty of consumer intelligence needs studies are inherent in the specificity of consumer intelligence needs.

III. Dynamics

As noted above, as society advances, so do intelligence needs. Intelligence needs are born of the objective problems in real life that need to be solved. In return, Intelligence needs provide feedback to help solve real problems. This cycle keeps repeating itself, each time pushing consumer intelligence needs to a higher level.

IV. Time-sensitivity

That is, there is a time and speed dimension to the consumer's need for intelligence and information.

Section Four -- Consumer Intelligence Needs Studies: What It Consists of and the Forms its Achievements Take

From the perspective of collection science, the first thing the worker should do in studying consumer intelligence needs is to examine the specific features of consumer needs and figure out exactly the basic characteristics of the consumers within the worker's area of responsibility and their actual needs and establish an appropriate consumer record and consumer needs record. This is the achievement of consumer intelligence needs studies at the primary level. Next the worker should create a consumer database and consumer intelligence needs database by using the computer. Such databases, which would make information storage, retrieval, and utilization more convenient for collection workers, are the achievement of consumer intelligence needs studies at the intermediate level.

It is worth noting that because of the dynamic nature of consumer intelligence needs, such records and databases must be revised and amplified continuously to ensure that they are usable and up-to-date.

At an even higher level, the student of consumer intelligence needs explores the intrinsic laws of consumer intelligence needs and intelligence behavior in light of the uniqueness of consumer intelligence needs and searches for the theorems or rules that have general guiding significance for collection work. This point has been discussed above.

Advanced-level studies also involve exploring the degree of dependency of each type of consumer on the various sources of intelligence and materials, that is, their interrelationship; shedding light on the relative intelligence value of a source of intelligence or information; and scientifically determining the kind of information and the amount of information one's department should collect and the channels one should open up. This piece of research is long-term and incremental. Moreover, it needs to be adjusted regularly as one's task and consumers change in order to maximize the cost effectiveness of collection work.

When we investigate interrelationships, we can only do so on a macro level from the perspective of a group of consumers. No collector is ever able to satisfy each particular need of every consumer.

Certainly, methodological research too is an important part of consumer intelligence needs studies. There is no question that scientific methods will lead to even more reliable research results.

Section Five -- Assessment Standards for Consumer Intelligence Needs

In this context evaluation criteria refer to the starting point from which to study and evaluate the uniqueness of consumer needs and explore their intrinsic patterns.

I. Consumer-Based Indicators

Among these indicators are occupation, job responsibilities, job title, specialty, educational standard, command of foreign language, intelligence training, and age. Because these attributes often determine the main attributes of intelligence needs, they should be investigated as a major part of consumer intelligence needs studies.

II. Types of Intelligence Required by Consumers

Do they need intelligence or information? Dynamic intelligence, data intelligence, or special-topic intelligence? If they need information, what kind of information? Periodicals, books, or scientific and technical reports? Primary materials or secondary materials? Here the emphasis is on investigating the consumers' opinions and evaluations of the various types of materials (and sources of intelligence).

III. Topics and Content of Intelligence or Information Needed by Consumers Today and in the Future

Which discipline? Which specialty? What is the subject matter? What are the contents? The more specific, the better. When a consumer has a few leads, he should be asked to provide as much information as possible, such as the title of a book, the name of the publishing unit, the name of the department or individual, Chinese or overseas, who has been researching the topic in question, and the name of the department or individual, Chinese or overseas, who may have possession of the materials in this area.

IV. An Indication of the Amount of Intelligence or Information Needed by the Consumer.

V. An Indication of the Year or Years in Which the Required Intelligence or Information Were Published and an Indication of the Time Frame within Which They Must Be Obtained.

VI. Consumers' Demand that Intelligence and Information be Accurate, Continuous, and Cumulative

With collection work as the starting point, we have listed six evaluation criteria above. However, it is not necessary for a collector to use all six criteria every time a collector conducts a study, with the exception of the consumer's own criteria. Instead he may select some or all of them based on the subject matter and objectives of his own research and his priorities.

Section Six -- Types of Consumer Intelligence Needs and their Relations with Collection Work

Consumer intelligence needs may be classified in many ways, such as general needs and specific needs, current needs and long-term needs, actual needs and potential needs, and knowledge-based needs, news-based needs, and data-based needs.

From the collection worker's perspective, we think that classifying consumer needs based on their relations with collection work has even greater practical instructive significance for collection work. Accordingly we have classified the relations between intelligence needs and intelligence work as follows:

[Diagram omitted]

The so-called "demand for known materials" in Figure 5.3 refers to a situation where the consumer knows the name of the database, the title of the book, or the author of the book, or a situation where the document number (such as scientific and technical report number, technical standard number, or patent number) is already known. In these cases, the required intelligence or information can be searched by following the known lead or through a directional search. "Subject need" refers to the need to search for materials relating to a particular subject or discipline through formal or informal channels or for oral materials. In this case, the consumer may have some lead to the materials he needs or he may have no such knowledge at all, making it necessary to do a "subject determination topic search." So-called "dynamic intelligence," special topic intelligence, and database intelligence refer to active answers to scientific and technical questions, not vehicles of intelligence.

Section Seven -- The History and Current State of Consumer Intelligence Needs Studies

I. A Brief History

Consumer intelligence needs studies originated in research on library consumers. It has been 40 years since Bernal and Urguhari presented their consumer survey report at the British Royal Society's scientific information conference in 1948.

In the early days the primary focus of consumer intelligence needs studies was the way readers made use of magazines. Bernal, for instance, studied eight research organizations and conducted a survey on 208 scientists using the questionnaire survey method. These 208 scientists specialized in a variety of fields, most of them in 15 disciplines. They were asked to name the magazines they read, their purpose of reading those magazines, the reason for reading them, and the results of reading them. The subjects of study were the readers who checked out magazines from the library at the British Museum. The questionnaires were distributed to them along with the magazines they checked out in order to find out their utilization of magazines. Most of the respondents specialized in about a dozen fields. Research in this period mostly focused on magazine use. Compared to the broad spread of specialties represented, the samples were quite small.

Consumer information needs studies gradually became a popular topic in the information science community starting in the late 1950's. The contents and depth of the studies became more sophisticated. Over time this area of research earned its place as a basic area in library science and information science.

This period gave rise to a number of influential reports. In 1958, Tornudd presented his research report at an international academic conference. He identified the following as factors influencing consumer information needs: the ease or difficulty with which information was obtained, occupation, research environment, academic credentials, and specialty. His contribution to consumer information needs studies was enormous. Subsequently Menzel came up with his critique. He divided previous study reports into three groups: 1) surveys on hobbies and requirements; 2) information utilization studies; and 3) information exchange distribution surveys. Menzel's classification scheme was widely accepted at the time as a more appropriate scheme. In his report, Paisley noted that information consumers were the principal players in search of information in the various systems and emphasized the need to each define his conceptual frame of reference. Other influential reports of this period included a study by the American Psychology Association, a study by Johns Hopkins University on the exchange of information among social science researchers, and a survey on social science workers at Basi [phonetic] University.

Currently hundreds of information scientists in the United States, the Soviet Union, Britain, Japan, Denmark, Finland, and other countries are engaged in research in this area each year, producing hundreds of papers thus far. To fund its study on consumer information needs, the United States goes so far as to appropriate hundreds of thousands of dollars, which shows the degree of importance it attaches to this piece of work. Some units in the United States have begun setting up consumer studies center. At Xiefeierde [phonetic] University, for instance, the consumer studies center has been actively collecting the results of consumer research in countries around the world, at the same time producing several case studies on its own.

Consumer information needs studies had a late start in China. It was not until the 1970's that it captured the attention of the general public and it was not until the early 1980's that substantial progress was made. The systematic conduct of consumer information needs research did not come about until 1983. Today many departments and units have organized specialized studies and some publications devote special columns to articles in this field. A 1986 study on seven publications, namely Qingbao Xuebao, Qingbao Xuekan, Qingbao Kexue, Qingbao Kexue Jishu, Qingbao Yewu Yanjiu, Qingbao Zazhi, and Tushu Qingbao Zhishi found 45 articles dealing with consumer studies, 8.81 percent of all articles in the publications. While the number of articles in this field is substantial, their contents are more or less the same. Most of them are general papers, which shows that research in this area has yet to be deepened.

II. Current Situation

There is universal agreement that in the field of information science, the "information consumer" is the most studied area other than information indexing. Its history goes back 40 years and research in this area has produced a bumper crop of achievements. It has earned its place as a basic subject in library science/information science. However, many information scientists still consider it an immature discipline and complain that research in this area has not yet produced the expected results. Tsuda Yoshinari of Japan wrote in his book, "An Introduction to Library Science-Information Science," "It is often said that the objective of consumer information needs studies is to design and improve information systems, but very few are actually put into practice. What is particularly amazing is that in the absence of data on consumer information needs, many information systems have been designed and improved." This statement may be a little exaggerated, but does reflect the sense of dissatisfaction with research results.

In our work in the real world, we also frequently come across mutually contradictory study results and feel less than confident about some research data. As we read books on information science, whether Chinese or foreign, we often find descriptions of the characteristics of the intelligence needs of various types of consumers. After reading them, we often get the sense that the studies are too crude, too general, and too imprecise and have little instructive significance for practical work. This is why we think consumer intelligence needs studies are still in the preliminary stage and have yet to develop in depth. An unremitting effort on the part of intelligence workers is still called for.

Why is this so? Apart from the complexity of the issue itself, there are these reasons:

1. There is no widely acceptable and mature methodology so far. So it is difficult to draw universally recognized scientific conclusions. Every method in use today has its limitations. As a result, many research results are mutually contradictory and cannot serve as a guide.

2. There is no ideal cooperation from the subjects of study. This matter sounds simple, but it is hard to resolve. Many consumers do not truly understand that when they answer the questions conscientiously and accurately, they themselves will benefit in the future. On the contrary, for a variety of reasons, they regard the questionnaire from the intelligence department as an additional burden, so they set it aside and ignore it. Alternatively, they may answer it perfunctorily, not truthfully. This prevents research personnel from drawing scientific conclusions of general significance and even misleads them into believing that false appearances are the truth.

It is necessary for a host of enthusiastic consumers (both actual consumers and potential consumers) to directly participate in consumer intelligence needs research. They need to enthusiastically and truthfully describe their situation or join the ranks of researchers outright. Only that way can consumer intelligence needs studies take an epoch-making step forward and only thus can the conclusions we draw be scientific and practical.

3. Research is conducted in a way that is too fragmented. What is lacking is a series of rigorous control measures. As a result, the data obtained is piecemeal, incomplete, and hard to compare. Units or individuals that organize the studies lack full confidence in the data gathered and other departments and research personnel simply do not know what to make of it. Accordingly some people of insight have proposed organizing international studies and launching extensive international cooperation. E. Tenud of Denmark, for instance, proposed organizing a large-scale international survey on all types of information consumers in all the countries using operational research methods as a way to amplify information consumer studies. We think it may be a tad premature for China to engage in international cooperation, but at a minimum we should initiate cooperation on a larger scale within China. For instance, if all the large intelligence units in China can join forces to formulate rigorous measures and launch consumer studies, that will greatly improve the infrastructure of information consumer studies in China.

4. Neglect of theoretical research. The overwhelming majority of consumer researchers have a very narrow objective. They may be prompted by departmental needs to search for specific ways to improve intelligence work or they may be interested only in finding the optimal design for intelligence organizations or networks. Only a handful of researchers devote themselves to probing the pattern of consumer intelligence needs and intelligence behavior and concentrate on theoretical development. This tendency to over-emphasize immediate payoffs and neglect theoretical studies has hindered the development of consumer research and does not bode well for the development of the discipline. It is the direct mission of scientific research to bring to light the objective laws of a thing. Only the discovery of objective laws and scientific theorems has universal practical significance and higher instructive value. It is shortsighted to judge the value of scientific research by its current value. Nobel Laureate C. Taoensi [phonetic], the American physicist, said, "To look upon science merely in terms of its practical applications is like trying to prove the importance of music for mankind by pointing to its box office receipts."

Section Eight -- Research Methods for Consumer Intelligence Needs

Generally speaking, from the early days of consumer intelligence needs studies to the present, people in the field have mainly used the social science research methods of observation, experimentation, and statistical survey. That is, they chose typical examples on which to conduct a study and then compared, analyzed, and synthesized the survey results.

Before the late 1950's, indirect investigative methods were most commonly used:

1. Conducting statistical studies on the check-out patterns at libraries;

2. counting the documents cited in abstracts and indexing publications;

3. counting the documents cited in books and magazines.

Methods of direct investigation gradually evolved from methods of indirect investigation in the 1960's and came into widespread use:

1. distributing questionnaires to sampled individuals and units;

2. studying consumers and their units;

3. using the diary method. Issue to consumers a diary index on which are printed certain investigation items. The subjects are asked to make daily entries. The diaries will be collected at the end of a set period (such as half a year). Data in the diaries will then be tabulated and analyzed.

4. Actual observation. Investigators were sent to work alongside the consumers and observe and record the way intelligence was obtained and utilized.

New methods that have come into use since the 1970's include the following:

1. Launching a pilot project to test a particular information service. That is, a given service is provided and feedback from the consumers is obtained in order to understand their real needs.

2. Compile charts depicting the organization, functions, and activities of a consumer unit;

3. Know the consumers' activity plans and arrangements;

4. Conduct large-area surveys to investigate not just the consumer but also his subordinates and superiors, co-workers, and associates.

5. Convene seminars bringing together consumers of the same type at regular intervals;

6. Take part in discussions on specific research plan, on the formulation of work plans and technical conferences;

7. Examine consumers' borrowing records and comments. Read correspondence and reports relating to consumers;

8. Apply systems engineering methods. Study consumers in other countries. Analyze and compare the results of various kinds of surveys.

The first issue encountered by those who study consumer intelligence needs has to do with methods. Although information scientists in every country now fully realize the importance of the methodology of information needs studies and although the methods of research have been undergoing continuous innovation in practice, the consensus of the intelligence communities at home and abroad is that there is as yet no mature and widely acceptable research method due to the complexity of the mix of consumers and the limitations of all the research methods now in use.

However, science and our undertakings cannot sit still waiting for methods to mature. In any case a mature research method can only be born of practice. As far as the present is concerned, using the current conditions in China as the starting point and based on what we have learned from consumer intelligence needs studies, we believe that provided they are done properly, a mix of the questionnaire method, the interview method, and information feedback method is the most practical, feasible, and effective way to conduct consumer intelligence needs studies. It can effectively help us determine the principles and objectives of intelligence collection and improve collection work. It can help us launch in-depth consumer intelligence needs studies and search for a pattern. It also yields basic intelligence and information. Below is a brief explanation of each of these methods:

I. Questionnaire Method

The questionnaire method is one of the most common research methods in consumer intelligence needs studies. Its main advantage is that it is simple. The coverage of the survey can be narrow or extensive. The survey is easy to conduct. A substantial amount of survey data can be obtained within a relatively short period of time. It also is quite inexpensive to conduct. Its main drawbacks are these: The return rate is low, not all the questions on the questionnaire form are answered, the questionnaire does not convey the mood of the respondent when he or she is filling out the form, and there is no assurance that the respondent actually understands the questions. The challenge posed by the last two disadvantages to the in-depth study of consumer intelligence needs cannot be ignored because it prevents us from determining the reliability of the data gathered. If we are fully aware of this point as we actually carry out a survey and take appropriate supplementary measures, that would probably go a long way toward clarifying the nature of intelligence needs.

This is how a questionnaire survey is conducted in practice.
1. Clearly define survey objectives. Once objectives are set, we can proceed to design the questionnaire revolving around these objectives, formulating questions at different levels and from different perspectives. Objective-setting is the guide for the entire survey from beginning to end. Before conducting a consumer intelligence needs survey, we must expend enough energies and time clarifying its objectives. Once this is properly done, it will lay a solid foundation for the successful execution of the survey.

2. Define the survey subjects. Decide who are the target of the survey depending on the objective of the survey. If the objective of the survey is to find answers to general questions pertaining to S&T personnel, the subjects of the survey should be the population consisting of all types of S&T personnel or, more specifically, a random sample of this population. If the objective of the survey is to extract intelligence on S&T personnel in a particular discipline or specialty, then the subjects of the study should be confined to this particular population. But this is not enough. We also need to obtain and analyze other pertinent particulars relating to the subjects of the survey, including their occupation, specialty, profession, age, their perception of intelligence work, intelligence behavior, psychological traits, the information environment they are in, and other background information. All these particulars may have a major effect on the objectivity and reliability of survey results.

3. Determine the sampling principle. Generally speaking, random sampling based on the various particulars of the survey subjects is enough to ensure the representatives of the sample. In practice there are four major sampling methods:

(1) Simple Random Sampling. Sampling is done within the population based on the random sampling principle.

(2) Layer Sampling. The advantage of this method is the ability to increase the representativeness of the sample and avoid the over-representation or the non-representation of a particular characteristic that happens with simple random sampling. For instance, S&T personnel may be divided into several levels based on a given survey principle. Next the size of the sub-population can be the size of the S&T personnel at each level as a percentage of the total population of S&T personnel. As for the way levels are divided, that can be determined by the set objective of the survey.

(3) Grouping Random Sampling. Under this sampling method, the region to be surveyed is divided into certain sub-regions, the composition of the personnel in each region being almost the same as that for other sub-regions. In other words, there are similarities between the sub-regions and differences within a single sub-region. Random sampling is then conducted in each sub-region.

(4) Judgment Sampling. The person conducting the survey chooses those who are representative from among the sample based on his subjective judgement.

4. Design of Questionnaire. This is the most critical step. Whether the questionnaire is designed well or badly directly affects survey results. Before the designing begins, we must first gather materials extensively, including questionnaires designed by others, and learn from their experience. The questionnaire should be as simple and clear as possible. The contents of the questionnaire should be reduced to a minimum. The questionnaire should be closely related to the objectives of the survey. Also it should be related to issues that the consumers are more interested in so as to enhance the appeal of the survey and interest the respondents in answering the questions. The meanings of words and terminology on the questionnaire should be clear and well-defined.

Generally speaking, as far as the various survey items on a questionnaire are concerned, the best thing is to ask a respondent to give each indicator a fixed quantitative value. Among the most common are the grading system, 10-point system, and five-grade system. The simplest is the grading system under which a respondent is to assign a grade to each item depending on its importance. If there are n items, there may be 1-n grades. The most important item is assigned (1). The less unimportant an item, the higher the grade, but not more than n. Items that are considered equally important may be assigned the same grade. Skipping is allowed, meaning that some grades may be omitted.

Where the quantitative approach is really inappropriate, it would be necessary to use the simple question-and-answer method to gauge the opinions of those surveyed.

Based on our experience, one must pay attention to the ordering of the contents of the survey. Practice shows that a consumer often tends to give more complete answers to the questions at the top of the questionnaire and shorter answers to those at the bottom. Therefore, core questions and questions that are more interesting should be placed at the beginning of a questionnaire while questions that solicit comments from the consumer or are easier to answer should be put at the bottom, such as those relating to name, age, and discipline.

The purpose of this series of steps is to make it easier for the respondent to give answers easily and accurately so as to ensure a higher return rate and make sure that the survey yields a sufficient amount of data.

Also, we need to emphasize the importance of the personal particulars given by the respondents for the final analysis. They should be enumerated on the questionnaire as part of the items, such as profession, job title, command of foreign language, place of work, and nature of work. In many surveys, the final analysis and conclusions have been affected because this important group of intelligence is overlooked.

5. Conduct a small-scale preliminary survey to correct any existing thinking that is inaccurate or unrealistic and make the questionnaire more scientific. A preliminary survey may also shed light on some problems that then can be resolved, thus enabling the main survey to proceed more smoothly.

6. Conduct the formal survey and collect questionnaire forms.

7. Process and analyze survey results. After the questionnaires are collected, we need to tabulate and process the data and analyze the final results. Among the quantitative statistical methods in use are the following:

(1) Form Method. Data is entered into pre-designed statistical forms. The form must be designed to include both horizontal and vertical items so as to facilitate vertical, normal, cross, and related analyses and comparison.

(2) Diagram Method. With this method, survey results are processed and presented in a variety of diagrams, including bar charts, pie charts, vertical diagrams, and all sorts of diagrams of curves. Its biggest advantage is that it is a direct and striking and easy to understand.

(3) Mathematical Statistical Method. In the wake of the development of informational mathematics, the application of mathematics in consumer intelligence needs studies will grow over time, which will have an increasingly profound impact on our understanding of the pattern of consumer intelligence needs. Here we discuss a few simple ways of gauging the opinions expressed by the surveyed subjects.

(a) Averaging the Points (or grades, same below)

Divide the sum of the grades assigned by the respondents for a particular item by the total number of respondents. The quotient is the average for that item. That is:

[formula omitted]

(b) Weighting

The total number of points assigned by the respondents to a particular item as a proportion of the sum of all the points assigned by the respondents to all items. This proportion is known as the weighted score for that item. That is:

[formula omitted]

(c) Highest Evaluation Frequency

The number of respondents who assign the maximum number of points (or the lowest grade under a grading system) to a particular item compared to the total number of people surveyed. This proportion is known as the highest evaluation frequency. That is:

[formula omitted]

(d) Average Ranking Indicator

First, the various items are ranked according to the points assigned by the respondents. That way every item receives a ranking equivalent to the number of respondents. Next, divide the total number of rankings by the total number of respondents and the result is the average ranking for the corresponding item. The lower the number, the better. Where the grading system is used, divide the sum of the grades assigned by the respondents to a particular item by the total number of respondents. The quotient is the average ranking. That is:

[formula omitted]

Each of the four processing methods discussed above can be used alone or in combination with others. Then we use the average ranking to determine their pecking order.

To measure the degree of consistency in the respondents' opinions regarding a particular item in the survey, we frequently use the so-called Kender Harmony Coefficient as a measure. Below is a detailed explanation of the way we calculate the Kender Harmony Coefficient based on the results generated by the grading method.

Assume that the intelligence personnel collect the questionnaires with n items and compile a table as shown in Table 5.1 based on the results, in which aij is the grade assigned by Consumer I to Item j. The number of valid returns is m.

In Table 5.1, the most important item is the lowest grade (grade 1), while the least important item is the highest grade (grade n). To make calculations easier, the grades in Table 5.1 have been appropriately changed to yield Table 5.2, in which

Amax is the highest grade given.

[Tables 5.1 and 5.2 omitted]

As a result of this change, the more important items correspond to the higher grades.

The average of the sum of the grades equivalent to all the items is

[formulas omitted]

V is the Kender Harmony Coefficient. The change of V from O to 1 reflects the increase in the consistency of opinions among the respondents regarding the various items. Thus V is a measure of the consistency in the way the respondents in an intelligence needs survey view the various items.

II. Interview Method

The interview method is a fact-to-face method of investigation. The investigator has a grip on the interviewee's psychology and mood. With the interview method, the return rate, the rate at which all questions are answered, and the accuracy are all quite high. This method avoids the kind of situation that occurs when a respondent misunderstands a question and gives a wrong answer or an ambiguous answer. Its disadvantage is that it is expensive and the scope of the survey is narrow. It also requires investigators that have solid interviewing skills and experience.

Please refer to the preceding section on the questionnaire method for the detailed practice and procedures of the interview method.

III. Intelligence Feedback Method

With this method, we use information we obtain in our work to shed light on the characteristics and changes in consumer intelligence needs. It guides us in adjusting the principles and method of intelligence gathering. The major sources of intelligence are listed below:

1. Work Records Statistics. Tabulate and analyze the miscellaneous work records we have created in our day-to-day intelligence service work, such as reader registration records, check-out records, comment books, etc., thus gleaning intelligence from these records. Although there are constraints on the scope of the survey and its contents, the intelligence thus obtained can be one of our references as we study consumer intelligence needs and adjust our collection policy. Its advantage is that it can be conducted as part of our daily work. Another advantage is its timely feedback.

2. Citation Analysis. This is a method used to obtain information on the use value of a set of documents or a serial by studying its citations. Through citation analysis, we can systematize the value of a thing (such as a serial, paper, or writer) and use it to guide collection. This method is often used in the analysis of core periodicals. Its disadvantage is that the number of cited articles is often smaller than the amount of literature actually consulted by the author, so it does not reflect the whole picture. Nevertheless the information thus gleaned still forms an important part of our data.

3. Materials Evaluation. With this method, materials are recommended to experts and evaluations sought. This method is often used in materials gathering work and there have been many success stories. A detailed material evaluation not only fully informs us whether or not the material in question contains information that has use value, but also enables us to figure out what materials the experts urgently need right now and where such materials are available. This information will help us adjust the direction of collection promptly and gradually zero in on the sought-after targets, at the same time providing the basic data for our consumer intelligence needs studies. Because of its value, this method has become a major piece of our day-to-day work in materials collection.

Section Nine -- The Laws of Consumer Intelligence Needs and Intelligence Behavior

This section explains some of the laws derived from consumer intelligence needs studies of the past. More laws await discovery by future generations.

I. The Distribution of Consumer Intelligence Needs Is Consistent with the Bradford Law of Grade Distribution.

Materials required by consumers exhibit a trend toward concentration and fragmentation. An extensive amount of research shows that the distribution of the materials required by given consumers is relatively concentrated based on discipline, variety, and language. That is, "core materials" can satisfy the bulk of consumer needs. To meet equivalent demand, the quantitative relationship among core materials, related materials, and discrete materials should be consistent with the Bradford graded distribution law, that is, l:n:n2.

II. Consumer Intelligence Needs Change as the Knowledge Structure of Consumers Changes.

The consumers' knowledge structure to a large extent determines their intelligence needs. In a static sense, consumers who differ in knowledge structure have different intelligence needs. In a dynamic sense, changes in the consumers' intelligence structure affects not only how much intelligence is required, but also the contents and quality of such intelligence.

III. Ma Tai Effect and Robin Hood Effect

There are the so-called Ma Tai Effect and Robin Hood Effect in consumer intelligence needs.

There is a small number of consumers with substantial intelligence needs. Over time the amount of intelligence needed will rise higher and higher above the average. These consumers will do their best to gain access to more and more current intelligence or information. At a time when there are not enough sources of materials, their behavior is bound to affect the needs of other consumers. This is the Ma Tai Effect in intelligence needs.

On the other hand, a majority of consumers show a more even need for intelligence, which is known as the Robin Hood Effect. This trend is particularly marked today, when S&T is highly developed.

IV. Consumer Intelligence Behavior Influenced by Zipf's "Least Effort" Principle

According to Zipf, as a person goes about his daily activities, he is bound to operate to a certain extent within his environment. Zipf argues that the consumer's actions are governed by the "least effort principle." According to this principle, people try their best to achieve their objectives by expending the least effort.

A considerable amount of research has demonstrated that consumer intelligence behavior is consistent with Zipf's least effort principle. For instance, in choosing intelligence sources, consumers almost exclusively go by the least effort rule, first picking the most convenient source while relegating considerations of quality and reliability to a secondary place. This point has been verified by the research of information scientists in the United States, including V. Rosenberg, Allen, and Grestberger. Let's take another example. In just about every country, S&T literature in the mother tongue is consulted most often because it is most convenient and requires the least effort. In a 1972 study, Soper demonstrated that 57 percent of the materials used by a consumer came from his own files, about 26 percent came from the library of his work unit, and 10 percent came from a library that was harder to reach in geographical terms. These data eloquently testify to the decisive impact of the least effort principle on consumer intelligence behavior.

V. Whether Intelligence Needs Are Converted into Intelligence Behavior Is Determined by the Amount of Intelligence Value.

Generally speaking, if the problem that needs to be resolved is an important one, or if the intelligence and information are of great value, then the consumer will certainly try in a thousand and one ways to get hold of the intelligence swiftly. On the other hand, if the issue is not so important or if the intelligence or information at issue are not indispensable, then he will certainly wait for them patiently, instead of scrambling everywhere to locate them immediately.

VI. Consumers Have Similar Processes of Searching for Materials.

The process here refers to the process in which a consumer searches for the materials he needs. He begins by looking among his own materials before turning to formal channels and asking for help from colleagues. Only after these channels have been exhausted to no avail will he consider seeking help from a library or information organization. Because the various methods differ in convenience and ease of use, just about all consumers have developed similar materials search habits.

VII. Consumers Prefer "Invisible Colleges."

Every intelligence consumer looks for the intelligence he needs through formal as well as informal channels. Although informal channels are not as important and reliable as formal ones, they are deemed more practical in the eyes of many consumers out of inertia or for other reasons. To date the so-called "invisible colleges" centered on a handful of influential scientists and experts and organized spontaneously by the consumers is still common in S&T exchanges and activities. Among engineering and technical personnel, for instance, there are exchanges of visits and communications over a period of time between the units and individuals who are the first to conduct a piece of research or to innovate and others who subsequently conduct similar research or carry out similar innovations. This is a kind of "invisible college." The consumer takes this kind of unofficial exchange channel seriously mainly because the consumer is more than a consumer in this kind of collective. As the core scientist or expert and a major source of intelligence, he also is its backbone. It is the consumer's trust in it that has primarily given rise to this type of intelligence behavior.

VIII. Mooers Law

Mooers made this discovery when he was researching the way consumers used information indexing systems: "If a consumer thinks that indexing materials is a bigger headache and more trouble than not indexing materials, then the indexing system in question would not be used." This is the famous Mooers Law. It sheds light on the decisive impact of "ease of use" on a system.

This is exactly what happens in reality. The simpler the indexing system, the more it is used by consumers. Conversely the more complicated a system, the less frequently it is used.

Students of consumer intelligence needs have found that the Mooers Law not only is applicable to consumer indexing behavior but also illustrates on a broader scale the principle underlying consumer intelligence needs: If it presents more trouble or causes a bigger headache to the consumer to obtain some intelligence or information than not to obtain them, he would give up looking for the intelligence or information.

Thus the Mooers Law not only is the standard one should meet as one designs an information indexing system, but is also a guide for designing intelligence systems and collection systems.

Section Ten -- Basic Characteristics of Consumers of National Defense S&T Intelligence

I. Basic Means of Categorizing Consumers of National Defense S&T Intelligence

As noted above, many factors affect consumer needs. They can mainly be divided into two broad groups: those that are related to the consumer's personal qualities and those that have to do with his environment. Among his personal qualities are his profession, academic qualifications, job title, age, knowledge of foreign language, field, psychology, hobbies, and specialty. Among environmental factors are national policies, national history, cultural tradition, the level of S&T development, sources of intelligence, and intelligence work services. It is these factors that shape a consumer's intelligence needs. Consumer intelligence needs are highly individualistic.

Let us leave aside the individual and look at the collective factors. Among the environmental factors, national policies play the biggest role and are of foremost importance. National policies determine the general attributes of the intelligence needs of rank-and-file intelligence consumers in a country and their overall development trend. We can look upon national policies as the "strategic factor" affecting consumer intelligence needs, a point fully verified by the history of China's defense S&T industry and the history of the corresponding national defense S&T intelligence work.

During the War to Resist U.S. Aggression and Aid Korea in the early days of the PRC, our ammunitions and aerospace industries surged ahead by leaps and bounds. In the 1960's, our country, determined to break the blockade and scale new heights, stepped up leadership over national defense S&T enterprises and launched a series of key projects. As a result, the number of consumers of defense S&T materials hit a historic high and China successfully researched and developed the atomic bomb and strategic guided missile. During the Cultural Revolution, few people used S&T materials and the number of people who used defense S&T materials also hit bottom. What little materials we imported were put in the warehouses, "to be consumed by mice instead of humans." Since the 3d plenary session of the 11th CPC Central Committee in December 1978, the focus of government work has shifted to economic construction. The policy of reform and opening was put forward and China's defense S&T enterprises also took a turn for the better. The number of people who used defense S&T materials rose year after year, hitting a historic high in 1984.

Today, international tension has been easing off, the national strategy is being adjusted, and the strategic guiding principle behind defense buildup is also changing. In the past, the bottom-line was to fight early and to fight on a large scale. Now our goal is to seize the favorable opportunity presented by a thawing trend in international relations and put the national economy on a sound footing in the shortest time possible. A 16-character policy has been put forward to guide the military industry: Junmin jiehe, pingzhan jiehe, junpin youxian, yimin yangjun, which means "combine the military with the civilian, integrate peace with war, give priority to military goods, and have the civilians support the military." This policy has led to epoch-making changes in the intelligence needs of the consumers of national defense S&T. Specifically, in the future they will need not only materials pertaining to weapons and equipment, but also materials pertaining to the development of civilian goods. Not only must they orient themselves to defense modernization and do their best to develop the defense industry and weaponry, but they must also orient themselves to society and fulfil their responsibility to national S&T progress and national economic construction.

Intelligence workers and intelligence collectors should fully appreciate the "strategic impact" of government policies on consumer intelligence needs. When a government policy is being adjusted in a major way, intelligence workers and intelligence collectors should far-sightedly take appropriate measures such as modifying the collection policy or changing the collection plan so as not to be caught short in satisfying consumer needs and forced to act retroactively.

As far as the consumer's own qualities are concerned, the one thing that has the most impact on the characteristics of consumer intelligence needs is his occupation, that is, the nature of the professional work he is engaged in. Studies show that people in the same occupation share some common characteristics in their intelligence needs, regardless of the country they live in, regardless of what technical development policy is being implemented, and regardless of technical specialty. Therefore, we may consider occupation the principal "technical factor" influencing consumer intelligence needs.

Consumers with the same job title, with the same knowledge of a foreign language, or with the same professional duties do share some common features in their intelligence needs, but such commonality is more limited and less striking than if we classify these consumers by occupation. Therefore, we propose classifying the consumers based primarily on their occupation and proceed to investigate the special characteristics of the intelligence needs of the various types of defense S&T consumers. In what ways are they similar? In what ways are they different? The purpose of investigating the special characteristics of the intelligence needs of the various types of defense S&T workers is to provide a theoretical basis for making defense S&T intelligence work more focused and effective so that our intelligence work becomes more proactive in satisfying consumer needs and so that we more fully meet the different needs of all types of personnel from all perspectives.

II. Classification of National Defense S&T Consumers

Based on the realities in the defense industry and taking occupation as the basis for classification, we have divided defense S&T personnel into these four major categories:

1. Scientific Research Personnel. Primarily engaged in basic research in defense S&T, pre-research, and applied research.

2. Engineering and Technical Personnel. They work at the frontline of the defense S&T industry and are responsible for the industrial design, research and development, production, and testing of approved models and key projects.

3. Managerial and Decision-Making Personnel. Primarily personnel who occupy leadership positions at all levels or are found in leading organs.

4. Soft Scientific Research Personnel. This group has grown up in tandem with the needs of the development of strategic studies and management studies in defense S&T industry. These personnel serve as a "think tank" in some of the most major decision-making processes. At present soft scientific research personnel are mostly researchers in policy study organizations, intelligence organizations, and verification organizations.

The classification scheme above is a general one. The boundaries between different types of consumers are a matter of degree. In reality, a given consumer may belong to two or more categories. For instance, a large number of managerial personnel are themselves scientists or engineers who may be engaged in two different types of work at the same time. Nevertheless, this fact should not prevent us from examining their intelligence needs when they are engaged in a specific line of work based on the above classification scheme.

III. Characteristics of Intelligence Needs of Various Types of Defense S&T Consumers

Below is a discussion of the characteristics of the intelligence needs of various types of defense S&T consumers, based on our research results and practical experience and using the evaluation standards outlined in Section 5 as our criteria.

1. Intelligence Needs of S&T Personnel

Scientific research personnel engage in research activities in order to understand and discover the laws of nature and find ways to apply these laws effectively. The upshot is new scientific knowledge. The following major characteristics are inherent in the work of scientific research personnel:

(1) What scientific research personnel need are one-time materials that are highly theoretical. As far as they are concerned, the major sources of intelligence are periodicals, proceedings, books, and S&T reports, among others.

(2) The materials required by scientific research personnel tend to be fairly narrow in subject matter. We may say their contents are more specialized and are closely related to the consumers' research topics.

(3) Scientific research personnel require a substantial amount of materials. They need to have a broad understanding of the developments in their specialty world wide, of the viewpoints of various schools of thought, and of the latest research results.

(4) It is customary for scientific research personnel to monitor foreign and domestic research trends. Usually what is valuable to their scientific research work is new viewpoints, new methods, and new data. As a result, they demand novelty and currency in their materials.

(5) Because scientific research personnel demand more specialized materials, they also have a higher demand when it comes to accuracy. Typically scientific research work is characterized by continuity; a scientific researcher may spend several years on a major piece of research. Thus there is little change in the subject matter of the materials. He only demands that the materials be orderly and advance step by step, from the simple to the complicated, from the superficial to the thorough. Thus scientific research personnel have more exacting demands in terms of the continuity and accumulative nature of their materials. We often come across a situation where a researcher reads an article closely related to his field and then asks to see the reference materials cited at the end of the article.

2. Intelligence Needs of Engineering and Technical Personnel

The ultimate goal of the activities of engineering and technical personnel is to design and manufacture products that satisfy strategic and technical demands or to complete engineering projects that satisfy strategic and technical demands. The following characteristics of their intelligence needs are inherent in their line of work.

(1) Engineering and technical personnel require one-time materials that are highly technical and that can solve the specific problems they encounter. Their major sources of information are S&T reports, technical standards, patents, and samples. They are also highly interested in material objects and samples.

(2) The subject matter of the materials required by engineering and technical personnel is broader than that for scientific research personnel. Not only must engineering and technical personnel master the principles and methods of product design and production, but they also must have an extensive knowledge of materials, processing technology, compatibility with other systems, the functionality of a product and the ease of maintenance. Nevertheless, except for general design personnel, most of those who design the ordinary parts have relatively narrow intelligence needs as they are oriented toward the subsystem or parts they are concerned with. Even personnel in charge of overall design primarily revolve their intelligence needs around a particular product or project. Compared to management personnel and soft science research personnel, the subject matter of their intelligence needs is much narrower.

(3) Engineering and technical personnel do not go after a huge amount of materials, but instead demand reliability in the materials. Sometimes just one set of materials is sufficient to meet their needs provided the materials truly match their needs and are reliable.

(4) Engineering and technical personnel demand that the materials be relevant but are not too concerned with the year of publication or their novelty. As long as they could help solve real-life problems, old materials are just as welcome. In our day-to-day work, we also come across instances where materials from the 1950's make themselves useful in engineering design of the 1980's.

(5) The subject matter of the materials required by engineering and technical personnel is neither too broad nor too narrow, but they have high accuracy demands. In this they are similar to scientific research personnel. However, the work of engineering and technical personnel revolves around models and engineering projects. As a product is updated or replaced, these workers' intelligence needs also change accordingly. Hence they do not emphasize that the materials be continuous and accumulative.

3. Intelligence Needs of Managerial and Decision-Making Personnel

Managerial and decision-making personnel are responsible for formulating general and special policies, drawing up plans, and organizing scientific research and production. These are the characteristics of their intelligence needs:

(1) Managerial and decision-making personnel typically do not need materials that are long on theory and technology. What they need are third-round materials that have been processed or are concise and pithy. The higher their level, the more the managerial and decision-making personnel demand that the materials be condensed, that they be concise and clear. They routinely read news summaries, bulletins, abstracts, research reports, verification reports, and feasibility analyses.

(2) The subject matter of the materials read by managerial and decision-making personnel is far more extensive than that of the materials consulted by scientific research personnel or engineering and technical personnel. They are interested in happenings on every front, including products, energy, materials, personnel, market, and development prospects. They demand that the materials be highly comprehensive. In fact the more senior a manager, the more he demands that materials be comprehensive. Not only are they interested in technology, but they are also interested in the international situation, military situation, national politics, and the economic scene. They want to cover every area across the board.

(3) Managerial and decision-making personnel need a substantial amount of materials. They usually are willing to listen to a variety of voices and look at different plans so as to make comparisons before choosing the best.

4. Intelligence Needs of Soft Scientific Research Personnel

Because soft scientific research personnel serve as the "think tank" in some major decision-making processes, their intelligence needs to a certain extent are shaped by the intelligence needs of managerial and decision-making personnel.

(1) Soft scientific research personnel need to read materials in both Chinese and foreign languages extensively, especially in Chinese. They need comprehensive materials, historical materials, policy-oriented materials, background materials, and all sorts of statistical data and research reports.

(2) The subject matter of the intelligence required by soft scientific research personnel is very broad and ranges from politics and economics to military and science and technology. Another striking feature is that these personnel are interested in research methods, mathematical models, and other theoretical methods.

(3) It is necessary for soft scientific research personnel to read a large amount of materials. Without the benefit of materials of a given size and a given quality, these personnel would be rendered helpless.

(4) As with managerial and decision-making personnel, soft scientific research personnel demand that the information be timely; outdated materials have no intelligence value to them. Be that as it may, they certainly do not ignore old information.

(5) Soft scientific research personnel require that the materials cover a broad area. However, their intelligence needs are often topic-based and tend to change fairly rapidly. Because their intelligence needs change rapidly, it is imperative that intelligence personnel and collection personnel keep pace with them and provide the right kind of materials in a timely manner. Moreover, soft scientific research personnel demand that their materials be highly accurate and often use such tools as comparison and analysis to differentiate the true from the untrue and see through smokescreens of false information propagated by the enemy. Soft scientific research personnel have no strong demand when it comes to continuity or cumulativeness in materials.

Section Eleven -- National Defense S&T Intelligence: Case Studies in Consumer Intelligence Needs Research

I. Consumer Intelligence Needs Studies Conducted by the U.S. Defense Documentation Center

In the 16 years between its founding in 1963 and its change of name in 1979, the U.S. National Defense Documentation Center conducted three large-scale studies on consumer intelligence needs. In 1965, it hired the Auerbach Co. to conduct a study on the needs of consumers within the Department of Defense (DoD). In 1966 the North American Aerospace Co. conducted a study on consumer needs in the national defense industry. In 1975 it again hired the Auerbach Company to conduct the largest consumer needs study ever in history. Below is a detailed description of the last survey.

1. Purpose of Study

According to the estimates in a report by the Office of Science and Technology in the Office of the President of the United States, scientific and technological efficiency could increase 10 percent as a result of improvements in the information system. The National Defense Documentation Center agreed with this estimate and held that with better management and coordination and through cooperation with other information systems, the efficiency of the entire R&D sector could be enhanced without incurring additional spending. The DoD should and could play a leading role in cooperation with the federal government, in the country at large, and worldwide. To achieve these objectives, however, the DoD must have a real understanding of consumer needs and the position it occupies and formulate a scientific development plan based thereon. To draw up a development plan for the National Defense Documentation Center for 1978-88, the following issues must be resolved:

(1) The demands placed on the National Defense Documentation Center's S&T information work by the R&D, testing, and evaluation departments within the defense sector;

(2) the role played by the National Defense Documentation Center in satisfying national defense S&T information needs;

(3) the feasibility of the objective of completing the improvement of information products, information services, and information systems before 1988; and

(4) the position and role of the National Defense Documentation Center in the national S&T information community in the decade between 1978 and 1988.

Toward these ends, the National Defense Documentation Center decided to launch a study on consumer needs and the information environment in order to provide a basis for scientific planning.

2. Study Methods

(1) Investigation Procedures

The study was conducted in four stages:

(a) A study was done on consumers within the DOD and its contracting units to find out their level of satisfaction with current information services and obtain basic data on consumer needs for the next development stages in the future.

(b) A study was conducted on some information organizations that offered outstanding information services or were active in the information field and had them set objectives for the next decade so as to determine the relationship between the Documentation Center and external S&T information departments in the future. (c) Literature on information storage and the transmission of advanced technology was examined. Such advanced technology may affect the techniques of information dissemination in the next 10 years.

(d) The results of the above-mentioned studies were evaluated by small groups of experts.

(2) Survey Methods

(a) Survey of Consumers

A mix of the questionnaire survey method and interview method was used, with emphasis on the latter.

Of the 100 units representing four types of consumers, an equal number was chosen according to the principle of random sampling to represent each group. The four types of consumers were:

-- primary consumers within the DoD;
-- secondary consumers within the DoD,
-- primary consumers in the contracting units; and
-- secondary consumers in the contracting units.

What distinguished primary consumers from secondary consumers was the volume of demand. A primary consumer was a unit that used materials at the National Defense Documentation Center two hundred times or more each year.

Within each unit three groups of study subjects were selected from among research personnel, managerial personnel, and intelligence workers according to the principle of layer random sampling.

After the study subjects were chosen, they were contacted by telephone to set up a time for an interview. Before the interview, the subject was given a survey card on which were printed the questions the subject would be asked in the coming interview. The purpose of the survey card was to ensure that the interviewee would be able to correctly answer the questions that had been carefully designed. That way time would not be wasted.

(b) Survey of Information Organizations

The principal method of investigation here was the interview method. Fourteen units were studied in all, including the Department of Energy, National Aeronautics and Space Administration, the National Bureau of Standards, the National Technology and Information Service, the National Library of Medicine, and other national agencies. Also studied were some S&T intelligence units inside the DoD.

Most of the interviewees were personnel in the various units who were in charge of formulating S&T information plans.

The interview revolved around three major topics:

-- the current situation in information work in the unit;
-- the unit's plan prior to 1988;
-- in the 10 years between 1978 and 1988, the unit's status and role in the overall S&T information community.

The purpose of asking these questions was to gain a clear understanding of the information environment in which the National Defense Documentation Center found itself at the time and during the plan period and identify the S&T information issues that would affect planning by the National Defense Documentation Center.

(c) Survey of Literature

The survey involved searching and examining the relevant literature and studying its contents.

The purpose of the literature survey was to understand the current situation in information storage and transmission technology and its future development trends. In all 68 pieces of literature were analyzed.

(d) Evaluation by a Panel of Experts

After comprehensively analyzing the results of the above-mentioned studies, Auerbach Company drew up a "table of future events" and asked a panel of experts to evaluate it. The panel of experts was composed of information experts and other influential figures in the information community. During the evaluation process every "event" was considered for its importance, necessity, suitability, and likelihood of happening. The reaction of every expert was taken seriously so there was a sense of proportion in comprehensively evaluating this "event."

3. Analysis of Survey Results

After tabulating and analyzing the results of the studies on consumers and information organizations, the following insights were obtained.

(1) The local library was the consumer's first choice as a source of materials. Last was the long-distance library (such as the Defense Documentation Center).

(2) The traditional documentation and book services provided by the Defense Documentation Center, including the way in which such services were rendered and the scope of such services, were too narrow. Consumers needed a more powerful and comprehensive database. What they hoped to see were information services, not just documentation services.

(3) The Defense Documentation Center must make it easy and convenient to store and retrieve information in the comprehensive database.

(4) The consumers were willing to spend a little more money in return for higher-quality services, such as more accurate and relevant answers.

(5) The time to respond to consumer needs must be reduced. (6) Consumers had no knowledge of a majority of services provided by the Defense Documentation Center or its information sources.

(7) Consumers needed to utilize not only the Defense Documentation Center, but also other S&T information sources. They also would like to be able to inquire about multiple sources of information locally or at a given location.

(8) The local information community was made up of a number of information organizations which were independent from and did not interact regularly with one another. Most units had their own special missions and focused on their own respective consumers.

(9) Most information organizations appreciated the value of document processing standardization. Nevertheless, apart from making limited improvements, they would not genuinely support any plan to give up existing systems. The current debate over such issues as processing standardization and management would continue into the next 10 years (1978-1988).

(10) The vast majority of information organizations were inclined toward supporting local information organizations. In their opinion, local organizations staffed by trained personnel were more likely to provide grass-roots consumers with quality services than large-scale organizations.

(11) People tended to favor the development of specialized scientific information databases and the computerized storage of actual data, instead of the storage of factual materials.

4.Final Results

Director Hubert E. Shater of the Defense Documentation Center said, "Auerbach Company did some highly effective and reliable work in collecting and analyzing data on the needs of consumers, on S&T information work now and in the future, and on the development trend in information transmission technology. The report generated by this study provides the Defense Documentation Center with a most logical basis as it makes plans for the future and for long-term investment. Although we do not propose to follow the proposals put forward by the contractor word for word, it has indeed made some sound evaluations and constructive proposals as far as the things we need to do are concerned. The Defense Documentation Center was in the past and still is today a traditional documentation and book service organization. We admit that its scope is narrow and cannot effectively satisfy consumer needs. We must develop technology, strengthen our ties with various centers of information analysis in the DOD, develop our own database, and truly provide data intelligence services. We must find a way to serve the majority of consumers more swiftly and more practically by working through local information organizations."

Based on the results and proposals generated by the study conducted by the Auerbach Company, the Defense Documentation Center special work group drew up a work plan for 1978-1988 and an applied technology plan. The work plan covered day-to-day work, the level of intelligence products, consumers' service needs, and the quality and quantity of work. The applied technology plan was an investment and development plan. It had 17 objectives divided into three groups, as shown in Tables 5.3, 5.4, and 5.5.

Table 5.3 First Group of Objectives Improving the Efficiency of S&T Intelligence Work

1. Improve the efficiency of the production and processing work at Defense Documentation Center.
2. Eliminate duplication in S&T information work within the DoD.
3. Improve the commonality, accuracy, and comprehensiveness of the S&T intelligence database of the DoD.
4. Improve the quality, responsiveness, and timelines of S&T information services.
5. Update and amplify the materials to meet changes in mission, demand, and the state of technology.
6. Track and get to know the extent of consumers' acceptance of S&T information products and their further demand.

Table 5.4 Second Group of Objectives Improving the Storage, Retrieval and Utilization of S&T Intelligence

1. Expand the scope of the Defense Documentation Center's system and the avenues of storage and retrieval. Make that system and other S&T information systems more mutually accommodating.
2. Find ways to utilize evaluated dossiers and the results of information studies.
3. Increase the number of consumers who could actively utilize the Defense Documentation Center. Promote the understanding of the S&T information services in defense system.
4. Enhance the comprehensiveness of the database at the Defense Documentation Center. Study and improve the utilization of related documents.
5. Sep up the exchange of research results and technology between the DoD system and civilian departments.
6. Designate a few departments to be responsible for providing useful S&T materials.

Table 5.5 Third Group of Objectives Applying Advanced Technology to S&T Intelligence Work

1. Apply advanced technology and equipment to the processing, duplication, and transmission of information.
2. Establish an information systems network within the DoD.
3. Develop automatic abstracting and indexing technology and the technology to store and retrieve information at the Defense Documentation Center.
4. Provide S&T information processing and networking systems at the Defense Documentation Center with advanced computing and communication capabilities.
5. Develop a more cost-effective plan for the first and second distribution of documents, for the reporting of documents, and for product delivery.

In the end this consumer needs study led to the renaming of the Defense Documentation Center as the Defense S&T Information Center in 1979 and to the DoD assigning to it a new task, which was to provide S&T personnel and managerial personnel at all levels in the DoD with technical information and managerial information.

II. Core Periodical Survey Conducted by the China National Defense S&T Intelligence Center

1. Purposes of Study

According to studies on intelligence sources, because periodicals are published frequently and put articles into print quickly, because they are large in number and original and in-depth in content, and because they cover a broad area, periodicals are capable of reflecting the level of S&T development in the world and the trend therein. As an intelligence source, they are the first choice of rank-and-file S&T personnel as well as intelligence researchers. According to estimates, S&T personnel and intelligence workers obtain 60 percent and 80 percent, respectively, of their S&T intelligence from periodicals.

Studies on consumer intelligence needs reveal a pattern in which materials required by consumers tend to be both concentrated and dispersed to satisfy equivalent demand. The quantitative relationship among core materials, related materials, and discrete materials is 1:n:n2, which is consistent with the Bu Law of Distribution. This suggests to us that core materials are enough to satisfy consumers' basic materials needs. The "core periodical effect" means that in any given field, the large number of scientific papers in the world are concentrated in a handful of S&T periodicals.

Nowadays the prices of foreign periodicals are soaring at the rate of 15-20 percent each year. Periodical subscription fees have accounted for about one half of materials spending for several years now. At a time when we are strapped for material funds, rising prices have further complicated materials acquisition.

Science and reality have taught us that the old collection policy, which is "the more, the merrier" and "the more comprehensive, the better," clearly no longer meets the needs of the new situation in a fundamental way. We must make our selections more relevant, become more conscious of cost effectiveness, try to achieve the optimal results with the least expenses, and shift the focus of collection work from quantity to quality. Hence it was imperative that a core periodical survey be conducted.

2. Method of Study

(1) Determine the prerequisite of a core periodical. The subjects of study were the 1,022 foreign-language periodicals subscribed to before 1985.

(2) The following three methods, commonly used in consumer intelligence needs studies, were used:

(a) The rate at which a periodical is checked out;

(b) Citation analytical method;

(c) Questionnaire

3. Survey Results

(1) Calculating the Checkout Frequency Rates

We counted the number of times a periodical was checked out in the almost seven years between 1979 and 1985. The top 56 periodicals were listed in Table 5.6.

Table 5.6 List of 56 Periodicals Checked out Most Frequently, in Descending Order

Rank Country (region)		Code No.	Title in Original Language

1  United States		877B130		Aerospace Daily
2  United States		878B09		Aviation Week & Space Technology
3  United States		878B53		Defense Daily
4  Britain			877C06		Flight International
5  Switzerland			360LD05		International Defense
6  Britain			500C88		New Scientist
7  Britain			500C04		Nature
8  United States		500B08		Science
9  FRG				368E03		Military technology and Economics
10 United States		734B14		Signal
11 United States		736B40		Defense Electronics
12 France			877E01		Air et Cosmos
13 Switzerland			877LD55		Interavia Airletter
14 United States		360B04		Defense Industry Report
15 United States		360B137		Defense & Foreign Affairs Policy
16 Britain			360C61		Defence
17 Britain			360C71		Jane's Defence Weekly
18 United States		363B03		Air Force Magazine
19 United States		363B01		Armed Forces Journal International
20 United States		732B61		Nucleonics Week
21 United States		723B18		Nuclear Fuel
22 United States		723B157		Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists
23 United States		500B17		Scientific American
24 United States		500B16		Science Digest
25 Britain			368C60		Military Record of CBR/Atomic Happenings
26 Britain			368C01		Defence Material
27 United States		368B01		National Defense
28 France			363F53		Cols Bleus
29 United States		730B01-1	IEEE Spectrum
30 United States		734B147		Microwave Systems News
31 United States		736B02		Electronics
32 United States		736B50		Journal of Electronic Defense
33 United States		736B181		Journal of C4/Countermeasures
34 United States		877B38		Soviet Aerospace
35 Britain			877C80		Aviation Studies
36 Switzerland			877LD01		Interavia
37 United States		878B02		Aerospace America
38 United States		878B58		Space Letter
39 Britain			878C01-2	Spaceflight
40 United States		360B01		Military Review
41 United States		360B91		Defense
42 United States		360B08-8	DMS Missiles/Spacecraft
43 United States		360B149		Concepts
44 United States		360B162		Arms Control Today
45 United States		360B197		Defense Week
46 Britain			360C54		Survival
47 FRG				360E05		Soldat und Technik
48 Netherlands			360LB01		NATO's Fifteen Nations
49 Switzerland			360LB01		Armada International
50 United States		360B13		United States Naval Institute Proceedings
51 United States		363B21		Army
52 Britain			363C02		Navy International
53 Britain			363C09		Maritime Defense
54 United States		537B56		Laser Focus
55 Japan					Genshino Sokuho
56 Soviet Union			70340		[Foreign Military Review]

(2) Citation Analysis Results

The focus was the several publications put out by this center. We looked at the literature consulted by the writers in preparing the articles. Then we identified the periodical where a particular reference could be found and determined how often this periodical was cited. Periodicals were arranged in order according to the number of times it was cited. The results are presented in Table 5.7.

Table 5.7 List of Periodicals Ranked According to Number of Times Cited, in Descending Order

Rank Country (region)		Code No.	Title in Original Language

 
1  United States		877B09		Aviation Week & Space Technology
2  Britain			360C61		Defence
3  United States		877B130		Aerospace Daily
4  United States		736B40		Defense Electronics
5  United States		734B14		Signal
6  United States		363B03		Air Force Magazine
7  United States		360B137		Defense & Foreign Affairs Policy
8  United States		360B08-8	DMS Missiles/Spacecraft
9  United States		723B57		Nuclear News
10 Britain			500C88		New Scientist
11 United States		723B77		Nuclear Industry with INFO
12 United States		500B17		Scientific American
13 United States		736B181		Journal of C4/Countermeasures
14 United States		360B04		Defense Industry Report
15 [blank]					Astronautics and Aeronautics
16 United States		736B02		Electronics
17 France			877F85		L'Aeronautique et L'Astronautique
18 [blank]					Electronic Warfare and Counter-EW
19 United States		734B11		Microwave Journal
20 Britain			360C76		Armed forces
21 United States		537B56		Laser Focus
22 United States		738B129		Computer World
23 United States		368B01		National Defense
24 [blank]					Missiles & Rockets
25 United States		730B01-1	IEEE Spectrum
26 Britain			360C71		Jane's Defence Weekly
27 United States		734B147		Microwave Systems News
28 United States		875B01		Naval Engineers Journal
29 Britain			368C60		Military Record of CBR/Atomic
30 United States		877B13		Flying
31 Britain			723C05		Nuclear engineering International
32 United States		736B05		Electronic Design
33 Switzerland			877LD55		Interavia Airletter
34 Switzerland			360LD05		International Defense Review
35 Netherlands			360LB01		NATO's Fifteen Nations
36 Hong Kong			360Y01		Xiandai Junshi
37 Soviet Union			70340		[Foreign Military Review]
38 FRG				368E55		Wehrtechnik
39 FRG				360E05		Soldat und Technik
40 France			877F01		Air et Cosmos
41 France			360F03		Defense Nationale
42 Japan			500D54		Kagaku Shimbun
43 Japan			368D01		Heiki to Gijutsu
44 Japan			734D54		Tsuken Geppo
45 United States		878B58		Space Letter
46 Switzerland			360LD09		Armada International

(3) Questionnaire Survey Results

The subjects of the study were the 1,022 foreign-language periodicals this enter subscribed to in 1985. A core periodical survey form was sent to the scientific research personnel concerned at the center along with the list of periodicals. They were asked to fill in the code numbers of the periodicals which they read most often and which they regarded as core periodicals or major periodicals. If the periodical a reader had in mind was not on the list but was deemed essential, he was asked to note accordingly in the comment column. The return rate of the survey forms was 85 percent. The survey forms returned contained a variety of opinions on 606 publications, while 416 publications received no comments. The results of the questionnaire survey were tabulated according to the number of times a periodical was rated a core publication by the interviewees. The results are presented in Table 5.8.

Table 5.8 List of Periodicals Ranked According to Results of Questionnaire Survey

Rank Country (region)		Code No.	Title in Original Language

1  United States		877B09		Aviation Week & Space Technology
2  United States		736B40		Defense Electronics
3  United States		734B14		Signal
4  Britain			360C76		Armed Forces
5  United States		368B01		National Defense
6  Britain			360C61		Defence
7  United States		736B50		Journal of Electronic Defense
8  United States		878B53		Defense Daily
9  United States		363B03		Air Force Magazine
10 United States		363B01		Armed Forces Journal
11 United States		360B197		Defense Week
12 United States		877B130		Aerospace Daily
13 Britain			877C06		Flight International
14 United States		500B17		Scientific American
15 FRG				368E03		Military Technology
16 Britain			500C88		New Scientist
17 Britain			360C54		Survival
18 United States		363B65		Sea Power
19 United States		363B21		Army
20 United States		360B08-8	DMS Missiles/Spacecraft
21 Switzerland			877LD01		Interavia
22 United States		736B181		Journal of C4/Countermeasures
23 United States		360B01		Military Review
24 Switzerland			360LD09		Armada International
25 Japan			360D66		Gunji Kenkyu
26 United States		877B38		Soviet Aerospace
27 United States		723B157		Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists
28 United States		860B91		Defense
29 United States		360B05		Strategic Review
30 Switzerland			360LD05		International Defense Review
31 Japan			368D01		Heiki to Gijutsu
32 Japan			360D01		Kokubo
33 United States		363B70		Army R.D. & A.
34 United States		380B08-9	DMS Ship Vehicles Ordnance
35 Britain			360C69		Journal of Strategic Studies
36 United States		730B01-1	IEEE Spectrum
37 United States		710B38		High Technology
38 United States		363B13		United States Naval Institute Proceedings
39 United States		363B12		Air University Review
40 United States		360B09		DMS Missiles & Satellites
41 United States		360B08-6	DMS Electronic Systems
42 United States		360B08-1	DMS Aerospace Agencies
43 United States		360B04		Defense Industry Report
44 Switzerland			877LD55		Interavia Airletter
45 Netherlands			360LB01		NATO's Fifteen Nations
46 Britain			734C104		Signal
47 Britain			500C04		Nature
48 Britain			368C62		Nuclear Weapons Date File
49 Britain			368C60		Military Record of CBR/Atomic Happenings
50 United States		378B59		Space World
51 United States		736B02		Electronics
52 United States		34B32		Satellite Communications
53 United States		734B11		Microwave Journal
54 United States		730B01-		TAES IEEE Transactions on Aerospace & Elec. Sys.
55 United States		537B56		Laser Focus
56 United States		00B08		Science
57 United States		363B107		Air Defense Magazine
58 United States		360B162		Arms Control Today
59 United States		360b10-4	DMS Foreign Military Market, NATO Weapons
60 United States		360B10-1	DMS Foreign Military Market, NATO Europe

(4) Comprehensive Analysis and Final Results

As noted in the section on the methods of conducting consumer intelligence needs studies, each method has its own advantages and shortcomings. Therefore three methods were used so that they could offset one another's drawbacks and so that we could verify one set of results against others to ensure the reliability of survey results.

The questionnaire method is usually regarded as less reliable. In this case, however, the objective of the study was well-defined, the questionnaire was simple in content, the questions were easy to answer accurately, and the respondents were the direct consumers of the periodicals. For these reasons, the results generated by the questionnaire method were actually seen as more accurate and reliable than those yielded by the other two methods. Accordingly, the results of the questionnaire study were taken as the baseline; all the top 60 periodicals ranked by the overwhelming majority of scientific research personnel were treated as core periodicals. As a matter of fact, 60 percent of the periodicals on the top 56 list produced by the "frequency of borrowing statistical method" were among the top 60 ranked periodicals. Moreover, 53 percent of the periodicals on the list of top 46 periodicals generated by the citation analytical method also appeared on the top 60 list.

To offset the limitations of the questionnaire method, every periodical that was chosen under both the "citation analytical method" and "frequency of borrowing statistical method" but which did not appear on the top 60 list compiled in accordance with the results of the questionnaire method also was treated as a core periodical. This was one way to supplement the results of the questionnaire method. There were six such periodicals in all.

Periodicals in a rare language circulate in a smaller circle than periodicals in the English language, so they should not be judged using the same quantitative criteria. Because of this and other corrective factors, we asked for comments and decided to select 14 periodicals also as core periodicals. This was the second supplement to the questionnaire method.

That way a total of 80 core periodicals were finally identified. See Table 5.9.

Table 5.9 List of Core Periodicals

Rank Country (region)		Code No.	Title in Original Language

1  United States		877B09		Aviation Week & Space Technology
2  United States		734B14		Signal
3  United States		368B01		National Defense
4  United States		363B03		Air Force Magazine
5  United States		877B130		Aerospace Daily
6  United States		500B17		Scientific American
7  Britain			500C88		New Scientist
8  United States		736B181		Journal of C4/Countermeasures
9  Switzerland			360LD05		International Defense Review
10 United States		730B01-1	IEEE Spectrum
11 Switzerland			877LD55		Interavia Airletter
12 Netherlands			360LB01		NATO's Fifteen Nations
13 Britain			368C60		Military Record of CBR/Atomic Happenings
14 United States		736b02		Electronics
15 United States		360B08-8	DMS Missiles/Spacecraft
16 United States		637B56		Laser Focus
17 United States		736B40		Defense Electronics
18 Britain			360C61		Defence
19 United States		736B50		Journal of Electronics Defense
20 United States		878B53		Defense Daily
21 United States		363B01		Armed Forces Journal International
22 United States		360B197		Defense Week
23 Britain			877C06		Flight International
24 Britain			360B21		Survival
25 United States		363B21		Army
26 Switzerland			877LD011	Interavia
27 Switzerland			360LD09		Armada International
28 United States		877B38		Soviet Aerospace
29 United States		723B157		Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists
30 United States		360B91		Defense
31 United States		363B13		United States Naval Institute Proceedings
32 Britain			500C04		Nature
33 FRG				368E03		Military Technology & Economics
34 Britain			360C76		Armed Forces
35 Japan			368D01		Heiki to Gijutsu
36 United States		360B10-4	DMS Foreign Military Market: NATO Weapons
37 United States		360B10-1	DMS Foreign Military Market: NATO Europe
39 United States		363B65		Sea Power
40 Japan			360B66		Gunji Kenkyu
41 United States		360B05		Strategic Review
42 Japan			360D01		Kokubo
43 United States		363B70		Army D.R. & A.
44 United States		360B08-9	DMS Ships Vehicles Ordnance
45 Britain			360C69		Journal of Strategic Studies
46 United States		710B12		High Technology
47 United States		363B12		Air University Review
48 United States		360B09		DMS Missiles & Satellites
49 United States		360B08-1	DMS Aerospace Agencies
50 United States		360B04		Defense Industry Report
51 Britain			734C105		Signal
52 Britain			368C62		Nuclear Weapons Data File
53 United States		878B59		Space World
54 United States		734B32		Satellite Communication
55 United States		734B11		Microwave Journal
56 United states		730B01-TAES	IEEE Transactions on Aerospace & Electronic Systems
57 United States		500B08		Science
58 United States		363B107		Air Defense Magazine
59 United States		360B162		Arms control Today
60 United States		360B01		Military Review
61 Japan			877D03		Koku Joho
62 Japan			877D84		Koku Zasshi
63 Austria			360LE51		OMZ Osterreichische Militarische Zeitshift
64 Soviet Union			70340		[Foreign Military Review]
65 France			360F05		Armees d'Aujourd'hui
66 France			360F05		Armee et Defense
67 France			363F09		Defense Armament
68 France			877F03		Aviation Magazine International
69 France			878F53		La Lettre du C.N. E.S.
70 Soviet Union			55994		[Aviation and Rocket Motor Abstracts]
71 Soviet Union			56034		[Rocket manufacturing and Aviation Tech Digest]
72 India			360HA60		Strategic Digest
73 India			360HA74		Strategic Analysis
74 United Nations		723W51		International Atomic Energy Bulletin
75 France			877F01		Air et Cosmos
76 United States		360B137		Defense and Foreign Affairs Policy
77 Britain			360C71		Jane's Defence Weekly
78 United States		734B147		Microwave Systems News
79 FRG				360E05		Soldat und Technik
80 United States		878B58		Space Letter

4. Insights and Lessons

Because of high turnover in the personnel who gathered the periodicals and because this was the first core periodicals survey conducted by the Chinese National Defense S&T Documentation Center, the credibility of the results of the survey needs to be further verified in practice and continuously improved and amplified through future research. Based on practice in the last few years, they have won tentative approval from the scientific research personnel.

This study revealed a number of unexpected facts, including some which were quite shocking to the collection personnel. For instance, of the 1,022 periodicals subscribed to in 1985, as many as 167 (or 16 percent) were totally ignored anywhere from one year to as long as six years, a sheer waste of over 40,000 yuan each year. This is a serious fact. It tells us that we as collectors must take a rigorous scientific attitude. Do not rely on subjective imagination. Do not engage in unfounded speculation. Do not believe what people say out of context one-sidedly.

As a result of this piece of research, collection personnel saw the direction of their work for the future. To take our collection work to a higher level, we must conduct studies continuously. Only when we are armed with sufficient data will we not be blinded by false phenomena and only then can we stride forward toward the realm of freedom from the historical realm of necessity.

On to Chapter Six