Commission to Assess the Ballistic Missile Threat to the United States
Report of the
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COMMISSION TO ASSESS THE BALLISTIC MISSILE THREAT TO
THE UNITED STATES
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Executive Summary
Table of Contents
I. Charter and Organization
A. Statutory Charter of the Commission
B. Organization of the Report
II. Executive Summary
A. Conclusions of the Commissioners
B. The Commission and Its Methods
C. New Threats in a Transformed Security Environment
1. Geopolitical Change and Role for Ballistic Missiles
2. Russia
3. China
4. Countries With Scud-Based Missile Infrastructures
a. North Korea
b. Iran
c. Iraq
5. India
6. Pakistan
D. A New Non-Proliferation Environment
1. Increased Competence of and Trade Among Emerging Ballistic
Missile Powers
2. U.S. as a Contributor to Proliferation
3. Motives of Countries of Concern
4. Readier Market Access to Technology
5. Availability of Classified Information and Export-Controlled
Technology
E. Alternative Ballistic Missile Launch Modes
F. Erosion of Warning
G. Methodology
H. Summary
Attachment 1
A. Year 2000 (Y2K) Computer Problem
B. Revolution in Military Affairs and Information Warfare
Attachment 2. Unclassified Working Papers
Attachment 3
A. Résumés of Commission Members
B. Résumés of Core Staff of the Commission
C. Commission Meetings and Agendas
D. Site Visits
E. Interviews
F. Acknowledgments
Appendix I: [CLASSIFIED]
Appendix II: [CLASSIFIED]
Appendix III: Unclassified Working Papers