Commission to Assess the Ballistic Missile Threat to the United States
Appendix III: Unclassified Working Papers
Supplier Nations: Robbin Laird, Tim McCarthy,
Keith Payne, David Smith
April 15, 1998
On April 15, 1998, System Planning Corporation hosted a roundtable
discussion session for the Rumsfeld Commission on "Barriers to
Proliferation and Pathways for Transfer." SPC assembled Ambassador David
Smith from Global Horizons, Inc., Dr. Robbin Laird of International
Communications and Strategic Assessments, Dr. Keith Payne and Dr. Robert
Rudney of the National Institute for Public Policy, and Mr. Tim McCarthy,
from the Monterey Institute of International Studies, and Deputy Chief
Inspector with the United Nations Special Commission on Iraq (UNSCOM). This
paper summarizes the discussion and highlights areas of consensus and
disagreement.
Challenges to the Nonproliferation Regime
Ambassador David Smith asserted that the United States faces three major
challenges to keeping the international nonproliferation regime both intact
and effective:
Exercise Leadership to prevent the unraveling of current international
cooperation--Smith argued that our allies have grown tired of U.S.
unilateral sanctions, and view the United States as hypocritical because of
its commercial dealings with China, particularly with regard to the
President's decision to implement the 1985 U.S.-China agreement for nuclear
cooperation. Smith asserted that it is only a matter of time before our
European allies dismiss American unilateral sanctions and enhance the scope
of their commercial relationships with nations such as Libya, Iran and
Cuba. Any such cooperation could further weaken the United States
nonproliferation efforts.
Differing World Views--Smith stated that America and Europe view the world
much more differently. The United States sees itself as the world's only
superpower with political, economic and security interests all around the
globe. The United States is thus concerned about "power projection forces,
forced entry, missile blackmail and the like." Europeans, however, do not
see themselves as an equally important player. They are far more concerned
about commercial relationships, and are generally confident that the United
States will handle threats to international security.
Differing Patterns of Behavior--Smith also asserted that our
nonproliferation and counterproliferation initiatives can be strengthened
by continuing to cooperate closely with our European allies, by trying to
understand our differences, and by finding common ground between us. Our
allies will continue to trade with nations of proliferation concern,
although they will not likely transfer missiles or missile related
technology. Taking this into account, the United States may have to adopt a
more flexible strategy in order to gain better cooperation from our friends
regarding missile proliferation and other important matters, including
joint planning for the near certainty that some nations of concern will
acquire ballistic missiles in the future.
The Networking Dynamic
Dr. Robbin Laird asserted that the globalization of the world economy has
created network webs between nations, and throughout regions. He concluded
that governments have lost control over important parts of their economic
and security agendas. Commercial entities have built relations with one
another across national boundaries. This has resulted in the diffusion of
power in the modern economy. These new networks thus create an entirely
different context within which proliferation will occur. As a result,
national export control systems will become less effective in controlling
the spread of WMD and their delivery systems.
Nowhere is the network more noticeable than in the commercial space launch
business. The dramatic upsurge in the space launch business in recent years
has generated a number of global competitors and distributed
infrastructure. Free market economics will drive the networking of
enterprises and the diffusion of manufacturing technologies and system
integration know-how across territorial boundaries. The creation of this
global economic infrastructure will exacerbate the proliferation problem,
with the United States and its allies at the center of the system.