The Global Technology Revolution
Chapter Three: Discussion

The Range of Possibilities by 2015

Impossible though it is to predict the future, technology trends give some indication of what we might anticipate based on current movements and progress. As discussed, the progress and effect of these trends will be modulated by enablers and barriers. Furthermore, these trends could have various effects on the world. Figures 3.1, 3.2, and 3.3 tie these components together for three trends: genetically modified foods, smart materials, and nanotechnology.

Figure 3.1 shows the range of potential paths that genetically modified foods might take by 2015 along with enablers, barriers, and effects. Investments and genome decoding are fueling the ability to modify and engineer organisms to provide needed capabilities, but social concerns are already affecting the generation and use of GM foods, especially between the United States and European Union (particularly in the United Kingdom). In an optimistic 2015, GM foods will be widespread, resulting in significant benefits for food quality, global production, and the environment (e.g., represented by the Biotechnology Industry Organization's positions (BIO, 2000 [41]). Policy controls or lack of investments might moderate the production and use of GM foods, leading to increased reliance on traditional mechanisms for food productivity increases and pest control.

Figure 3.2 shows the range of potential paths that smart materials might take by 2015 along with enablers, barriers, and effects. Investments and commitment to research are prime enablers, but limited funding, limited labor, failing interests, or lack of public acceptance of highly monitored environments could modulate growth and application. In an optimistic 2015, smart materials could be used in a wide array of novel applications. Barriers, however, could slow the development and application of smart materials to, say, advanced sensors with integrated actuator capabilities.

Figure 3.3 shows a striking range of opinions on where nanotechnology might be by 2015 along with enablers, barriers, and effects. Current high-visibility investments and technology breakthroughs will be needed to realize the full potential of nanotechnology, but research and development costs, applicability, complexity, accessibility, and even social acceptance (e.g., of intelligent nanomachines) could slow its growth. The optimistic future state is perhaps best exemplified by the vision of pervasive nanotechnology involving molecular manufacturing of a host of nanosystems with revolutionary capabilities (see Drexler, 1987, 1992 [162, 163]); moreover, nanomanufacturing would take place on a global scale, giving developing countries the opportunity to invest in and participate in the revolution. From a more pragmatic view, lack of technological breakthroughs might limit the results by 2015 to an evolutionary path where the current trend to smaller, faster, and cheaper systems continues through nano-level advances in semiconductor production to continue Moore's Law (see SEMATECH, 1999 [190]).

Figure 3.1--Range of Possible Future Developments and Effects from Genetically Modified Foods

Table 3.1 shows the facilitative relationships of four technologies along with their individual high-growth futures, low-growth futures, effects, enablers, and barriers. These relationships emphasize that well-know technologies such as information technology and biotechnology actually rely on less-known enabling technologies for some of their progress. Although these facilitative relationships impart dependency on other technologies, the combined effect will accelerate the capability and promise of technology as long as key enablers can be maintained.

Figure 3.2--Range of Possible Future Developments and Effects of Smart Materials

Meta-Technology Trends

A number of meta-trends can be observed by reviewing the technology trends discussed above and the discussions in the open literature. These meta-trends include the increasingly multidisciplinary nature of technology, the accelerating pace of change and concerns, increasing educational demands, increased life spans, the potential for reduced privacy, continued globalization, and the effects of international competition on technology development.

Multidisciplinary Nature of Technology

Many technology trends have been enabled by the contributions of two or more intersecting technologies. Consider, for example, MEMS-based molecular diagnostics, biomaterials, biological-based computing, and biomimetic robotics. Various technologies have combined in the past to enable applications, but there has been an increase in multidisciplinary teaming to examine system challenges and envision approaches in a unified way rather than through a hierarchical relationship. Materials scientists, for example, are working increasingly with computer scientists and application engineers to develop biomedical materials for artificial tissues or to develop reactive materials to facilitate active system control surfaces. Materials are also being developed and adapted as embedded sensors and actuators for smart structures.

Figure 3.3--Range of Possible Future Developments and Effects of Nanotechnology

Figure 3.4 illustrates examples of how nanotechnology (scale), information technology (processing), materials (processing and function), and living organisms inter-relate to produce new systems and concepts. Materials provide function, and the emergence of nanotechnology has enabled construction at a scale that integrates function with processing (smart materials). The combination of materials technology with biology and the life sciences has at the same time provided knowledge and materials obtained from living organisms to enable a further integration with pervasive effects from design (biomimetics) to end product (bionics). Note that these examples show different combinations of technologies resulting in different advances; the entire set of technologies provides a rich mix of contributions to the overall technology revolution.

Table 3.1

The Range of Some Potential Interacting Areas and Effects of the Technology Revolution by 2015

Figure 3.4--The Synergistic Interplay of Technologies

In addition to their technology and artifacts, different fields also tend to produce different views and approaches to the world. Combining these views also enriches the scientific toolbox used on a problem, resulting in advances that combine the best of each world and enabling applications that would not be possible otherwise. For example, engineers increasingly turn to biologists to understand how living organisms solve problems in the natural environment. Rather than blindly copying nature, such "biomimetic" endeavors often combine the best solutions from nature with artificially engineered components to develop a system that is better for the particular environment than any existing organism.

Many significant trends leverage technologies from multiple areas. Figure 3.4 shows examples of the interplay between biotechnology, nanotechnology, materials technology, and information technology areas. Smart materials are contributing both function and processing capabilities. In this figure we show how smart systems are enabled by progress in materials (sensor/actuator) and information technology capabilities together with microsystem trends. Smart systems in turn can be engineered to provide living organisms with bionic capabilities. Living organisms are informing new ways to construct systems (biomimetics) as well as manufacturing components themselves.

Accelerating Pace of Change

The general pace of technological advance and change seems to be accelerating. Economic growth, especially in the United States, is fueling applied research and development investments, resulting in new product innovations and approaches. Computer technology continues to advance to the point where products become obsolete in two to three years. In some areas of biomedical engineering the pace is even faster; some medical devices are obsolete by the time a prototype is developed (Grundfest, 2000 [107]). Such a pace could make it more difficult for legal and ethical advances to keep up with technology.

Accelerating Social and Ethical Concerns

As new technologies enable greater ability to manipulate the environment and living things, societal and ethical concerns are accelerating. Privacy, intellectual property, and environmental sustainability issues are all raised as new capabilities that are offered by technology.

Increased Need for Educational Breadth and Depth

Combined with an increased pace of technological change will likely come an increased need for continued learning and education. Just as computer skills are becoming more important today, both blue-collar and white-collar workers will likely need to improve their skills in other areas to avoid obsolescence in technological realms.

The multidisciplinary nature of technology is also changing the skills required by the workforce as well as R&D technologists. Developers increasingly need to understand vocabulary and fundamental concepts from other fields to work effectively in multidisciplinary teams, demanding more time in breadth courses. This trend may increase over time to the point where multidisciplinary degrees may be necessary, especially for visionaries and researchers who tie concepts together.

Finally, the population as a whole will likely need to have a wider understanding of science and technology to make informed political and consumer decisions. For example, current controversies regarding genetically modified foods require an open and questioning mind to be able to balance the often-complicated arguments made by various parties in the debate. Likewise, understanding the privacy implications and potential gains of heavily instrumented and monitored homes is needed to have an informed electorate and consumer base.

Longer Life Spans

Health-related advances hold the promise of continuing the trend of increasing human life spans in the developed world. This trend raises issues related to increased population, care for the elderly, and retirement living. Medical advances may also increase the quality of life, enabling people to not only live longer but to remain productive members of society longer.

Reduced Privacy

Various threats to individual privacy include pervasive sensors, DNA "fingerprinting," genetic profiles that indicate disease predispositions, Internet-accessible databases of personal information, and other information technology threats.

Privacy issues will likely result in legislative debates concerning legal protections and regulations, continued social and ethical debates about technology uses, the generation of privacy requirements and markets, and privacy-supporting technologies (e.g., security measures and components in sensory and information architectures and components). The timeliness, pervasiveness, and rationality of privacy concerns may dictate whether privacy issues are addressed in proactive or reactive ways. In recent history, however, privacy and security have taken a back seat to functionality and performance.{1} It is unlikely that privacy concerns will halt these technology trends, resulting in reducing privacy across the globe in measure with the amount of technology in a region. Scrutiny of privacy issues, however, may change public behavior in how it uses technology and may influence technological development by highlighting privacy as a social demand.

Continued Globalization

Globalization is likely to be facilitated not only by advances in information technology, the Internet, communications, and improved transportation (see, for example, Friedman, 2000 [217]) but also by enabled trends such as agile manufacturing where local investments in infrastructure could enable new players to participate in global manufacturing.

International Competition

Regarding international competition for developing cutting-edge technology, a range of possibilities exists in each area. These possibilities range from a nationally competitive system in which both technology investments and technology products are stovepiped with respect to national boundaries, to a situation in which they are highly fluid across national and regional boundaries. The actual direction will depend on a number of factors, including future regional economic arrangements (e.g., the European Union), international intellectual property rights and protections, the character of future multi-national corporations, and the role and amount of public sector research and development investments. Currently, there are moves toward competition among regional (as opposed to national) economic alliances, increased support for a global intellectual property protection regime, more globalization, and a division of responsibilities for R&D funding (public sector research funding with private sector development funding).{2} Naturally, these meta-trends are subject to change in accordance with the factors outlined elsewhere in this report.

Cross-Facilitation of Technology Effects

Beyond individual technology effects, the simultaneous progress of multiple technologies and applications could result in additive or even synergistic effects. Table 3.2 shows the results of an exercise where pairings of sample technology innovations were examined for such effects. Some advances will introduce capabilities that could be used to aid other advances and hence accentuate their effect beyond what would be achievable if the effects were independent and merely additive. It is also possible that certain combinations of realized advances could have negative effects on each other, resulting in unforeseen difficulties. Unforeseen ethical, public concern, or environmental difficulties may be examples.

Nine potential innovations were selected across biotechnology, materials technology, and nanotechnology to explore how technologies may facilitate each other. GM foods include the customization of crops and animals to improve nutrition and production while reducing pesticide and water use. Drug-testing simulations will improve drug development by simulating drug-body interactions to improve testing and understanding of drug interactions and population problems. Minimally invasive surgery (along with artificial tissues, structures, organs, and prosthetics) will improve health by addressing medical problems with reduced intervention and thus reducing cost and time while improving efficacy. Artificial heart tissue will reduce heart problems by providing regenerative materials to repair hearts. Personal identification databases will develop device materials to facilitate the protected (off-line) storage of information on an individual or in a small, portable system (e.g., a next-generation smart card). The global business enterprise will use rapid prototyping and agile manufacturing to leverage global production capabilities. A micro-locator tag will combine wireless communications at longer distances than current tagging technology and become commonplace in businesses and homes to facilitate logistics, the location of items, and interfaces with information processors (e.g., to control manufacturing parts or to plan meals based on available items in a pantry). An in vivo nanoscope would provide wireless, in-body testing and monitoring of medical conditions, replacing wired probes and measuring factors impossible with today's technology. Finally, cheap catalytic air "nanoscrubber" (a molecular manufacturing "wild card") would be produced in massive quantities and released into the atmosphere to convert carbon molecules to less harmful forms to decrease the environmental effects of fossil fuels.

Each innovation was rated as either likely (circle) or uncertain (square) or in-between (circle-square). Major effects of each innovation were also listed and rated using these tags. Additional details of these effects are included in the shaded boxes on the diagonal. The degree of shading of these boxes along the diagonal denotes the potential scope of the innovation (global or moderated) by 2015. Here global (cross-hatched gray boxes) denotes widespread effects; moderated (medium gray boxes) indicates that the effects will likely be constrained across some dimension (e.g., geographic, industrial scope, economic access) in the 2015 timeframe. For example, if they survive public concern, GM foods could become pervasive across the globe, affecting most agriculture. The effects of drug-testing simulation, however, may be constrained to financial gains within the pharmaceutical industry or within the developed world that can afford a new wave of customized drugs. Note that these trends are moving toward globalization, but moderation across some dimension may indicate that their effects beyond 2015 may be through trickle-down adoption as costs become more acceptable to more populations.

The rest of the cross entries in Table 3.2 [on the right-hand side] indicate whether potential synergistic effects may occur if both innovations come to pass.

Table 3.2

Potential Technology Synergistic Effects

Click on the image to view a larger version.

These observations should not be viewed as predictions of the future state by 2015 but rather as an effort to examine the potential scope of the effects of technology trends, including assessments of interactive effects if pairs of innovations come to fruition. The cross effects were assumed to be symmetric; thus, only one-half of the table was shown.

The Highly Interactive Nature of Trend Effects

The effects (e.g., social, economic, political, public opinion, environmental) of technology trends often interact with each other and result in subsequent effects. Figure 3.5 illustrates this interactive nature for a trend that has already entered public debate and thus is already having global effects. In this example, we show how increased population (and thus demand for food productivity increases) is a major driver for the use of GM foods. We also show how subsequent effects can contradict each other and drive policy decisions.

Such an influence chart can therefore be useful in following the logical arguments made by multiple individuals and organizations on a topic of debate and to understand how the points made fit into a larger picture of interactions. For example, the genetic modification safety issue appears in the context of three fundamental players: companies (searching for new markets and pushing for patenting rights), anti-GM activists (trying to eliminate genetic modification altogether), activists for developing countries and world food supplies (working to improve and tailor crops), and environmentalists (worrying about biodiversity as well as deforestation). These interacting drivers sometimes conflict with each other and sometimes facilitate each other. It is unclear what will happen politically. A compromise point may be reached that balances intellectual property protections with developing-world market needs. Technology and education may address many safety concerns while enabling continued use of GMOs. Environmentalists may find a balance where extensive customization of crops and reduced deforestation may address biodiversity concerns. It is unclear which position will prevail politically or even to what extent such technology can be regulated, but constructing such charts and following the progression of the interacting debates can help to monitor the situation and inform policy.

Many of the effects discussed in the technology section above are foresights of what may happen as a result of the trends discussed, but because the effects will be felt so far in the future, it is often hard to understand what the interactive and subsequent effects may be. This does not mean that the final effects will not be complex. Rather, the reader must be aware of the complex nature of the effects and continue to look for them as the trends and technologies mature.

Figure 3.5 demonstrates how potential technology effects interact and intertwine between economic, political, public opinion, and environmental domains. Conflicts between effects are marked with an exclamation point (!) and show how the net effect could be balanced by a number of factors or policies. This figure is not complete but illustrates the complex interactions between technology trends. These effects may be conditionalized to particular regions or conditions. For example, reduced pesticide use could mostly affect farmers who already use pesticides, but farmers who use GM crops with systemic pesticides could still reap increased yields and revenues.

Figure 3.5--Interacting Effects of GM Foods

The Technology Revolution

Beyond the agricultural, industrial, and information revolutions of the past, a multidisciplinary technology revolution, therefore, appears to be taking place in which the synergy and mutual benefit among technologies are enabling large advances and new applications and concepts (see Table 3.3). Many individual technology trends are pursuing general directions as shown. Beyond specific technologies, however, meta-trends are appearing that characterize properties of the technology trends and provide an abstract framework for describing the technology revolution. Furthermore, entry costs ("tickets") illustrate what individuals, businesses, countries, and regions will likely need to enter and continue to participate in the technology revolution.

Beyond individual technology trends and meta-trends, the prerequisites and resources required to participate in the technology revolution seem to be evolving.

Table 3.3

The Technology Revolution: Trend Paths, Meta-Trends, and "Tickets"

The overall workforce will likely have to contribute to and understand an increasingly interdisciplinary activity. Just as computer skills are becoming more important today, a basic capability to work with or use new materials and processes involving biology and micro/nanosystems will likely be required. Not only will new skills and tools be needed, but we could see by 2015 a fundamental paradigm shift in the way we work and live because of the technology revolution.

Consumers and citizens should gain a basic understanding of technology to make informed decisions and demands on our political, social, economic, legal, and military systems. Likewise, scientists, engineers, technologists, and the government will have increasing responsibilities to think about and communicate the benefits and risks of technological innovations. Such knowledge does not need to be deep in each area, but a basic understanding will enable proper development and use of technology.

Technology workers (e.g., researchers, developers, and application designers) will likely need a deeper multidisciplinary education to enable teaming and to understand when to bring in specialists from different disciplines. Distance learning could facilitate the rapid dissemination of knowledge from developing specialists.

In addition to formal breadth courses and multidisciplinary training, the Internet may also facilitate the ability of people to acquire new knowledge in multiple disciplines and to keep skills current with developing trends. Authentication of both knowledge sources and training will remain important, especially for worker training, but demonstrated experience could continue to substitute for formal training.

Some of the progress in technology trends is enabled by multidisciplinary R&D teams. The old paradigm of hierarchical relations of technology is being replaced with one where a team searches for solutions in multiple disciplines. For example, materials are not relegated to providing infrastructure alone for traditional computing approaches but are being considered for processing applications themselves when smart materials can provide sensing and processing directly.

The use of and dependence on resources also seems to be evolving. In the past, local resources strongly influenced local production. Transportation currently allows local resources (e.g., natural resources or labor) to be combined with (value-added) resources from other areas, ultimately resulting in products that meet specific end-product needs. By 2015, end products might be tailored to utilize available resources and enable a wider range of technology participants.

Although current capital costs have been increasing for technology participants, it is unclear where this trend will lead by 2015. On the one hand, certain manufacturing and research equipment (e.g., for semiconductor fabrication) will likely continue to be more costly and be concentrated in the hands of a few manufacturers. On the other hand, genomic processing and rapid prototyping might be pursued with relatively low-cost equipment and with little infrastructure, allowing biological and part manufacturing practically anywhere in the world. Knowledge itself will become increasingly important and valuable. Generation, validation, and search for specific new knowledge in new technological domains could become increasingly costly with the increased availability of raw data (e.g., understanding the function and implications of genome maps). Such knowledge could become increasingly protected, yet global knowledge availability and transfer of public data and knowledge will likely be facilitated by information technology.

Other questions regarding participation make it unclear what will happen by 2015. Can global connectivity and distance learning make initial and continuing education and training globally available? Can they help bridge the gap between academic disciplines? Can agile manufacturing make it possible to participate in global manufacturing with less capital by producing components for larger products? Can advances in technology enable the tailored use of local resources more effectively?

The Technology Revolution and Culture

The technology revolution is going far beyond merely generating products and services. First, these products and services are changing the way people interact and live. Cell phones are already bringing business and personal interactions into previously private venues. Increased miniaturization and sensorization of items such as appliances, clothing, property, and automobiles will likely change the way these devices interact with our lifestyles. The foods we eat are likely to be increasingly engineered. Health care could be integrated into our lives through better prognostics and daily monitoring for conditions.

Second, business is becoming increasing global and interconnected. This trend will likely continue, for example, with the aid of agile manufacturing and rapid prototyping.

Third, the requirements for participating in the generation of products and services are changing (see the bottom of Table 3.3). As technology becomes more interdisciplinary, education and training must change to enable workers to participate. Education should emphasize a larger component of breadth across disciplines to give at least a fundamental understanding of multiple disciplines. Businesses will likely need to spend more resources on continued training across their workforce.

Taken together, these trends indicate that technology is having a cultural effect. Modes of social interaction are changing. Both ideas and norms are influenced by newly introduced standards and the wider access to other cultural approaches.

Communities are already reacting to the cultural invasion in information technology (Hundley et al., [212]). Some cultures are very open to adapting new technology (especially given financial motivations); others are concerned that their cultural traditions are in danger of being replaced by a global (sometimes Western or American) cultural invasion and are less open to adopting and accepting technology. As trends enabled by biotechnology, materials technology, and nanotechnology expand the effect of the technology revolution, we anticipate that communities could continue to respond to the technology revolution in various ways.

As the pace of these changes is likely to be rapid during the next 15 years, these community responses to technology and its effect on local culture may result in increased conflict. Some conflict may be overt as communities and governments establish policies to protect extant culture{3} or even attempt to reject the technology revolution by various means. Other conflicts may be covert as individuals who reject technology turn to terrorism or technology attacks in an attempt to influence the change.

On the other hand, improvements in the quality of life resulting from the technology revolution could reduce conflict. Policies to enable the sharing of benefits may help to tilt the future toward this more positive outcome.

Conclusions

Beyond the agricultural and industrial revolutions of the past, a broad, multidisciplinary technology revolution is changing the world. Information technology is already revolutionizing our lives and will continue to be aided by breakthroughs in materials and nanotechnology. Biotechnology will revolutionize living organisms. Materials and nanotechnology are developing new devices with unforeseen capabilities. These technologies are affecting our lives. They are heavily intertwined, making the technology revolution highly multidisciplinary and accelerating progress in each area.

The revolutionary effects of biotechnology may be the most startling. Collective breakthroughs should improve both the quality and the length of human life. Engineering of the environment will be unprecedented in its degree of intervention and control. Other technology trend effects may be less obvious to the public but in hindsight may be quite revolutionary. Fundamental changes in what and how we manufacture will produce unprecedented customization and fundamentally new products and capabilities.

Despite the inherent uncertainty in looking at future trends, a range of technological possibilities and effects are foreseeable and will depend on various enablers and barriers (see Table 3.1).

These revolutionary effects are not proceeding without issue. Various ethical, economic, legal, environmental, safety, and other social concerns and decisions must be addressed as the world's population comes to grip with the potential effect of these trends on their cultures and their lives. The most significant issues may be privacy, economic disparity, cultural threats (and reactions), and bioethics. In particular, issues such as eugenics, human cloning, and genetic modification invoke the strongest ethical and moral reactions. Understanding these issues is quite complex, since they both drive technology directions and influence each other in secondary and higher-order ways. Citizens and decisionmakers need to inform themselves about technology, assembling and analyzing these complex interactions to truly understand the debates surrounding technology. Such steps will prevent naive decisions, maximize technology's benefit given personal values, and identify inflection points at which decisions can have the desired effect without being negated by an unanalyzed issue.

Technology's promise is here today and will march forward. It will have widespread effects across the globe. Yet, the effects of the technology revolution will not be uniform, playing out differently on the global stage depending on acceptance, investment, and a variety of other decisions. There will be no turning back, however, since some societies will avail themselves of the revolution, and globalization will thus change the environment in which each society lives. The world is in for significant change as these advances play out on the global stage.

Suggestions for Further Reading

General Technology Trends

Biotechnology

Materials Technology

Nanotechnology

Notes

{1} For example, security and privacy on personal computers and the Internet have been an afterthought in many cases. The marketplace has mostly ignored these issues until actual incidents and damages have forced the issue, raising concern and market demands.

{2} Note that even though private sector R&D expenditures are currently increasing in absolute dollars, many of these investments are relegated to relatively expensive development efforts instead of research.

{3} See, for example, the discussion of regional concerns about culture and technology in Hundley et al. (2000 [212]).

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