The Treaty on Non-Proliferation
of Nuclear Weapons (NPT)
51. The Treaty on Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons
(NPT) underpins all international efforts both to prevent the
spread of nuclear weapons and to achieve their complete abolition.
Essentially, the NPT is a grand "bargain" between the
five States Partiesthe USA, Russia, China, France and the
UKwhich are permitted to possess nuclear weapons (nuclear
weapon states) until they can negotiate them away completely,[92]
and all the other States Parties (non-nuclear weapon states) that
are forbidden from possessing nuclear weapons, in return for which
they are entitled to access to civil nuclear energy. Professor
Michael MccGwire said that "an effective non-proliferation
treaty requires that virtually all non-nuclear states believe
that the regime serves their long term interests and that a large
majority see the terms of the treaty as fair."[93]
Since entering into force in 1970, the NPT has been subject to
five-yearly review conferences. At a special Review and Extension
Conference in 1995, States Parties unanimously decided to extend
the treaty for an indefinite period, partly as a result of a reiteration
by the five recognised nuclear weapon states of their commitment
to achieve complete nuclear disarmament.
THE 2000 NPT REVIEW CONFERENCE
52. Considerable anxiety was expressed about the
likely outcome of the Sixth NPT Review Conference, both in the
course of our visits to Switzerland and the USA and in the written
and oral evidence. Professor Walker told us that "the whole
framework of international law, particularly multilalteral arms
control, has been damaged by recent events and recent trends.
The notion that nuclear relations should be founded upon mutual
obligation and on mutual trust... has been seriously weakened."[94]
Many of the non-nuclear weapon statesespecially those belonging
to the New Agenda Coalition[95]had
expressed their impatience at the failure of the nuclear weapon
states to make sufficient progress towards nuclear disarmament.
53. Our academic witnesses expressed scepticism about
both the willingness and the ability of the nuclear powers to
disarm completely. Professor O'Neill said that "we are in
a logjam and there is not the slightest intent on [the part of]
any of the five nuclear weapon states to even discuss going to
zero."[96]
Professor Simpson lamented that "one of the things that is
sadly lacking at the moment... is any real vision of how one would
actually get to nuclear disarmament, any agreed vision."[97]
The FCO's memorandum, which had been prepared before the Conference,
noted that:
The nuclear tests conducted by Indian and Pakistan
in May 1998 also pose problems for the NPT regime.
54. Despite the low expectations of the Conference,
the eventual outcome has been hailed as a success. A Final Document
was adopted, by consensus, which reviews the operation of the
treaty over the past five years and sets out a number of steps
which should be taken to promote nuclear non-proliferation and
disarmament. Perhaps the most significant step forward was the
joint statement issued by the five nuclear weapon states in which
they pledged an "unequivocal undertaking to accomplish the
total elimination of their nuclear arsenals."[99]
Mr Peter Hain, Minister of State at the FCO, announced by means
of a written parliamentary answer that:
55. Although complete nuclear disarmament is still
not a near-term prospect, the nuclear weapon states did agree
a series of further practical steps down the road towards that
objective in the final document, produced at the end of the 2000
NPT Review Conference. A summary of these steps can be seen below.
We recognise that the international climate prior to the NPT
Review Conference was inauspicious and did not appear favourable
for progress in the area of nuclear disarmament and non-proliferation.
The achievement of a final document by consensus is a positive
and welcome outcome and we commend the Government for its role
in bringing this about.
56. Despite the relief of supporters of arms control
that the NPT did not unravel at the Review Conference or result
in states withdrawing from the treaty, it is important not to
get carried away with the political rhetoric and conclude that
the NPT's future is guaranteed. The review of the "Principles
and Objectives for Nuclear Non-Proliferation", agreed at
the 1995 NPT Review Conference, shows that in many important respects,
disarmament negotiations have stalled. The document from the 1995
Review Conference had announced the nuclear weapon states' political
commitment to complete the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty no later
than 1996; an agreement to commence negotiations immediately on
a Fissile Material Cut-Off Treaty and to bring them to an early
conclusion; and the "determined pursuit...of systematic and
progressive efforts to reduce nuclear weapons globally, with the
ultimate goal of eliminating those weapons."[102]
Each of these issues will be discussed in greater detail below,
but progress has not been overwhelming. Although the Comprehensive
Test Ban Treaty opened for signature in 1996, it has yet to enter
into force; the negotiations on the Fissile Material Cut-Off Treaty
have yet to begin; and the five nuclear weapon states are accused
of making limited progress towards nuclear disarmament, although
the UK Government has taken a number of commendable steps which
are discussed further below. It is noteworthy that many of these
issues were again the subject of commitments at the 2000 NPT Review
Conference, and that the aims of the 1995 Conference had not been
achieved. The future of the NPT will continue to depend partly
on how successfully the arms control and disarmament agenda identified
above is now pursued and implemented.
THE PROBLEMS OF NON-PARTIES AND
NON-COMPLIANCE
57. Leaving aside the Review Conference, the NPT
faces two perennial difficulties: the problem of non-signatories
and the problem of non-compliance by States Parties to the treaty.
Four states remain outside the NPT, of which threeIsrael,
India and Pakistanare de facto nuclear weapon states.
The fourth state, Cuba, does not subscribe to the treaty as it
argues that it does not go far enough in pressing the nuclear
weapon states to disarm. Although the Government encourages India,
Pakistan and Israel to join the NPT as non-nuclear weapon states,
it acknowledges that this is an unlikely proposition in the absence
of a settlement to the political problems perceived by each of
these states. As the Foreign Secretary put it, "the basic
problem with the Indian sub-continent of course is not essentially
one of arms control, it is essentially one of tension between
the two countries and ultimately we shall continue to have difficulties
making progress on arms control unless and until we make progress
on what we delicately term the roots of the tension between them."[103]
Similarly, Israel is unlikely to renounce its nuclear weapons
and sign up to the NPT in the absence of a Middle East Peace Settlement.
58. Although it is impossible to prevent the determined
proliferator from initiating a WMD programme, arms control treaties
should seek to contain verification provisions that maximise the
chances of detecting non-compliance, thereby reducing the likelihood
of cheating.[104]
Professor Simpson argued that events surrounding the Iraq and
DPRK cases, as well as the inability of the international community
to respond effectively to the underground nuclear tests in South
Asia, illustrate:
59. We believe that evidence of non-compliance with
WMD treaties, or a refusal to allow international inspectors to
confirm compliance, should be met with resolute international
responses. Rebecca Johnson suggested that this may require reform
of the UN Security Council, to remove the possibility of the veto
being used to prevent collective action against proliferators
or users of WMD.[106]
THE ROLE OF THE INTERNATIONAL ATOMIC
ENERGY AGENCY IN VERIFYING THE NON-PROLIFERATION TREATY
60. The compliance monitoring provisions of the NPT
are conducted on behalf of the treaty parties by the International
Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) through separate bilateral agreements
with each State Party to the treaty.[107]
The Foreign Secretary told us that "on the whole the verification
system of the NPT is quite credible."[108]
As required by Article III of the NPT, the IAEA checks that nuclear
materials are not diverted from civil to military programmes.
It is important to recognise that the IAEA does not verify an
individual state's compliance with the NPT, just with the terms
of its safeguards agreement with the agency.[109]
61. Despite Iraq's comprehensive safeguards agreement
with the IAEA, however, the Agency failed to detect that country's
clandestine nuclear weapons programme. The FCO told us that:
As a consequence, the IAEA developed a model Additional
Protocol (known as INFCIRC 540) to strengthen the standard safeguards
agreement (INFCIRC 153). According to the FCO:
The negotiation, entry into force, and implementation
of such agreements between individual non-nuclear weapon states
and the IAEA is now in progress.[112]
As states are not obliged to sign on to these new arrangements,
and because some of them are reluctant to accept more intrusive
verification, the number of states which have done so to date
is small.[113] Although
Colonel Taylor warned that the regimes could not be improved in
a fashion "which would enable them to deal in any way with
a determined cheat,"[114]
improving the system of verification is important and should enhance
deterrence against non-compliance.
62. The UK signed its Additional Protocol (to the
Nuclear Safeguards Agreement of 1976) in September 1998 and the
Bill to enable its ratification received Royal Assent in February
2000. According to Dr Findlay, as one of the few states that has
negotiated and ratified the Additional Protocol, the UK is now:
63. We commend the Government's early ratification
of the Additional Protocol which will allow it to enter into force
in the UK. We recommend that the Government impress upon our European
partners the need for them to ratify.
Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty
(CTBT)
64. The Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty (CTBT) was
opened for signature in 1996 but has yet to enter into force.
During the negotiations leading up to the establishment of the
treaty, certain nuclear weapon states had indicated that they
would be unwilling to be constrained by such a treaty unless all
five nuclear weapon states and the three de facto nuclear
weapon states (India, Pakistan and Israel) became parties to the
treaty. The CTBT stipulated that it would not enter into force
until it had been ratified by all 44 of the nuclear capable states
(defined as those with civil nuclear reactors) identified in the
treaty. At present only 28 have done so.[116]
Of the acknowledged nuclear weapon states, the UK, France and
Russia have ratified the CTBT. The US Senate's refusal to do so
in 1999 was especially unfortunate, partly because of the example
it set to others.[117]
Moreover, whilst this refusal was heavily influenced by partisan
domestic politics in Washington DC, it did serve to undermine
the traditional leadership role of the USA within the international
non-proliferation regime. The US Government has made clear its
intention to abide by the treaty's terms nevertheless. India,
Pakistan and North Korea have not signed the CTBT and although
Israel and China have signed the CTBT, they have yet to ratify
it. China has undertaken to "make continued efforts to bring
about universal accession to, and effective compliance with"
the CTBT.[118]
65. To verify compliance with the treaty, an International
Monitoring System (IMS), which will be overseen by the Comprehensive
Test Ban Treaty Organisation (CTBTO), is being established.[119]
The IMS will consist of 321 monitoring stations located in 90
countries which will provide data allowing States Parties to detect,
locate and to identify nuclear explosions of at least 1 kiloton.
Dr Findlay told us that the future CTBTO was "a powerful
tool for detecting nuclear tests whether the treaty enters into
force or not. But there is a danger that progress may be obstructed
by political and financial difficulties as entry into force is
indefinitely delayed."[120]
He called the Government to support the proposed budget increase
of 18 per cent for the Organisation.[121]
66. By preventing any explosive nuclear testing world-wide
the CTBT represents a crucial component of the non-proliferation
regime because it seeks to impose qualitative constraints on nuclear
weapons development. Thus its early entry into force is vital
to this country's security. We urge the Government to co-operate
with the US Administration and encourage the new US President
to re-submit the CTBT to the Senate for ratification as an urgent
priority, to encourage China and Israel to ratify the treaty and
also to impress upon India and Pakistan, in particular, the importance
of their becoming parties to the CTBT. Given the importance of
the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty Organisation in stemming nuclear
proliferation, we recommend that the Government should fully support
the proposed 18 per cent increase in the CTBT Organisation's budget
for 2001.
Fissile Material Cut-Off Treaty
(FMCT)
67. It was agreed at the 1995 NPT Review Conference
that negotiations on a Fissile Material Cut-Off Treaty (FMCT)
should start immediately. The treaty, which would end the production
of fissile material for weapons purposes, would impose quantitative
constraints on nuclear weapons development, thereby complementing
the qualitative constraints envisioned under the CTBT. It would
establish a baseline from which efforts could be made gradually
to control and/or reduce fissile materials and might succeed in
preventing the continuing production of nuclear weapons in India
and Pakistan, and possibly Israel, if these states were to become
signatories.[122]
Mr Paul Hare, Head of the Non-Proliferation Department at the
FCO, told us that the Government saw "the cut-off treaty
as a very realistic immediate measure to which [Israel] could
come in as a negotiator alongside the other non-NPT parties, India
and Pakistan.[123]
68. Four of the five recognised Nuclear weapon statesthe
USA, Russia, France and the UKhave all publicly stated
that they have ceased production of fissile material.[124]
Unfortunately, negotiations on the FMCT have yet to begin at the
Conference on Disarmament, largely because of disagreement over
the scope of any treaty (as to whether it should cover existing
stocks of fissile material as well as future production), but
also because a number of states are not yet ready to cease production
of fissile material for weapons purposes. During our visit to
Geneva, we were told that linkage negotiating is one of the reasons
for the deadlock at the Conference on Disarmament. China, for
example, has made the establishment of a committee to negotiate
a FMCT dependent on discussions about the prevention of an arms
race in outer space (PAROS). China has also stated that if the
US proceeds with the deployment of national missile defence, it
will not be willing to agree to a cessation of fissile material
production for weapons purposes as it will require more warheads
to preserve the credibility of its force.[125]
69. In the written evidence we received from the
FCO prior to the NPT Review Conference, the Government stated
that attempting to deal with existing stocks of fissile material
in the FMCT negotiations would prevent the early achievement of
a straightforward ban on future production.[126]
At the Review Conference the States Parties committed themselves
to "the immediate commencement of negotiations on an FMCT
with a view to their conclusion within five years."
70. We recommend that the Government make renewed
efforts to help to break the impasse on the Fissile Material Cut-Off
Treaty negotiations and ensure that substantive negotiations commence
quickly.
The Strategic Arms Reduction
Treaty (START) Negotiations
71. Russia's ratification on April 14 this year of
the second bilateral Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (START II)
with the USA will allow the implementation of an agreement aimed
at reducing strategic nuclear arsenals to a maximum of 3,500 warheads
each, down from 6,000 under START I. Preliminary bilateral discussions
on START III indicate that the USA wants to reduce to between
2,000 and 2,500 warheads, whereas Russia is now prepared to go
down to as few as1,000 warheads. However, according to Minister
Adamov of the Russian Ministry of Atomic Energy, Russia is likely
to be unable to maintain more than 1,000 warheads by 2008 due
to economic factors,[127]
so Russia's motivation to reduce further the size of its nuclear
arsenal is not entirely altruistic. This may well be an area where
Russia would seek to bargain with the USA as part of negotiations
to amend the ABM Treaty to allow deployment of NMD.
72. Russia's ratification of START II, however, will
not take effect until a number of conditions have been met, including
ratification by the US Senate of the START II Protocol and, most
controversially, ratification of the protocols to the ABM Treaty,
signed by Presidents Clinton and Yeltsin in 1997, stipulating
strict limits on permissible defences against theatre-range ballistic
missile attack.[128]
73. The Foreign Secretary was quite optimistic about
the situation in Russia, stating that the "new administration
in Russia has come up with much more ambitious targets than even
the already high level of objective for START III negotiations"
and commenting that "at the moment the momentum within Russia
appears to be entirely favourable towards cuts in nuclear missiles."[129]
Given the conditions attached to Russia's ratification of START
II, however, future progress on START negotiations would appear
to depend on US/Russian agreement on NMD and the ABM Treaty. Professor
O'Neill thought that such an agreement was highly unlikely and
predicted dire consequences for the START negotiations and for
arms control. He warned us that NMD would "completely scupper
any prospect of a long term reduction in nuclear weapons between
the United States and Russia."[130]
Dr Malcolm Chalmers of Bradford University detected a convergence
of interests between the USA and Russia and thought that "a
deal is still possible ... Russia might also use negotiations
as a means of securing US financial assistance for the modernisation
of its own early warning systems, currently in a state of increasing
disrepair."[131]
74. As reductions in strategic nuclear weapons proceed,
so theatre nuclear weapons will also need to be taken into accountbuilding
on the 1987 Intermediate Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty and unilateral
reductions by the USA and Russia agreed in 1991. Russia's increased
reliance on nuclear weapons in its recently revised military doctrine,
an issue we discussed during our earlier report into Relations
with the Russian Federation,[132]
indicates potential future difficulties and is a concern that
was frequently raised in written evidence.[133]
RUSSIAN NUCLEAR WEAPON DISMANTLEMENT
75. Arms control agreements have required Russia
to dismantle hundreds of nuclear weapons. The immense scale of
this problem was brought home to us during our discussions at
the US Department of Energy where we were told that Russia has
600 metric tons of Highly Enriched Uranium, 700 metric tons of
weapons-grade Highly Enriched Uranium and 165 metric tons of Plutonium.
In turn, this necessitates the safe disposal of nuclear materials
contained in the warheads. We heard concern about the degree of
control exercised over this material and the possibility of its
theft for subsequent use in other weapons.[134]
This echoes the anxieties expressed by witnesses during our inquiry
earlier this year into Relations with the Russian Federation.[135]
There was consensus that Russian nuclear weapons and fissile material
were inadequately guarded and that both the materials and technological
know-how were widely available to proliferators.
76. The UK has already offered some help through
the provision of secure containers for nuclear material. However,
given the scale of the problem, witnesses expressed the view that
the USA, the UK and its European allies should do more. Professor
Rogers, Professor Baylis and Colonel Taylor all agreed that three
to four times the level of current spending was needed to ensure
the safe disposal of Russian nuclear materials.[136]
British Nuclear Fuels told us that commercial funding initiatives
were also required and advised us that it was "developing
proposals to provide a system capable of dealing with all declared
surplus materials in a commercially sustainable way."[137]
The Foreign Secretary argued that the division of responsibility
between the USA and Europe has been such that "Europe has
focussed its funding which is quite substantial on nuclear safety
within Russia in terms of the civil reactor programme and the
costs there are very substantial indeed."[138]
The USA, on the other hand, has taken major responsibility for
handling the disposal of fuel from the nuclear weapons. The Foreign
Secretary thought that this was justified as "the nuclear
weapons being dismantled are a consequence of the START programme
of which the European Union is not a member."[139]
He defended the record of the EU in financing programmes, claiming
that "if you take the totality of effort to assist Russia
with its nuclear environment, Europe comes out rather well."[140]
77. The funding of the British Government's Cross-Departmental
review of nuclear safety in the former Soviet Union was announced
in the recently published Spending Review 2000, New Public
Spending Plans 2001-2004.[141]
Spending on existing programmes by the FCO and a number of other
Government Departments totalled £8 million for 2000-01. The
Government has announced that a new pooled budget will be established
in within the DTI's programme with a value of £24 million
for 2001-02, increasing to £27 million for 2002-03 and £33
million for 2003-04. The Government has said that this pooled
budget will allow the UK to participate in a "more joined
up and effective way" to international efforts to rebuild
the Chernobyl shelter; improve operational safety of nuclear plant,
regulatory systems and nuclear safety cultures across the former
Soviet Union; de-fuel disused submarines in North West Russia;
deal with surplus Russian weapons grade plutonium; retrain and
generate employment opportunities for nuclear weapons scientists;
and improve security, materials accountancy, and international
verification arrangements at FSU nuclear sites. We welcome this
increase in funding and effort to increase the effectiveness of
the contribution made by the UK.
78. At the Moscow summit in June 2000 President Clinton
and President Putin agreed to dispose of a further 34 tonnes of
weapons-grade plutonium by turning it into MOX (mixed oxide fuel)
for civil energy use. This follows a previous undertaking in 1998
to dispose of 50 tonnes of plutonium each.[142]
The Foreign Secretary told us that although the EU was looking
at making a possible contribution to the funding of this agreement,
the UK was "more hopeful that the framework of an international
financial arrangement in which we would be involved would be agreed
through the G8 mechanism."[143]
79. One specific area where greater resources would
be beneficial is support of the work of the International Science
and Technology Centre (ISTC).[144]
The ISTC was established in 1992 as a non-proliferation programme
to provide peaceful research opportunities for non-military research
for weapon scientists and engineers in the former Soviet Union,[145]
and thereby to prevent the leakage of technical know-how onto
the international black market. The EU contributed $60m between
1992-1998 (an average of $10m p.a.), but only $3.8m in 1999.
80. We are concerned that the overall level of investment
in assisting Russia to dismantle and dispose of its nuclear weapons
is inadequate for the scale of the problem and that EU funding
for the ISTC in particular appears to be declining.
81. We recommend that the Government use its influence
with both Russia and the USA to achieve the maximum negotiable
reduction in nuclear warheads in START III. We further recommend
that the Government use its position in both the G8 and the EU
to accelerate progress in helping the Russian Government to destroy
its surplus nuclear materials or convert them to civil use.
UK Nuclear Posture and Disarmament
82. The five nuclear weapon states, including the
UK, have given an "unequivocal undertaking to accomplish
the total abolition of their nuclear arsenals." Mr Hain regards
this as a strengthening of the Government's commitment under Article
VI of the NPT.[146]
Nevertheless, this commitment has no deadlines attached to it.
The Secretary of State for Defence told the House that "the
non-proliferation treaty agreement¼
is an aspiration; it is not likely to produce results in the short
term."[147]
In the Strategic Defence Review (SDR) the Government made clear
that it would include the UK's nuclear weapons in strategic arms
talks "when we are satisfied with progress towards our goal
of the global elimination of nuclear weapons."[148]
It was stated in the SDR that "while large nuclear arsenals
and risks of proliferation remain, our minimum deterrent remains
a necessary element of our security"[149]
and that the UK will continue to deploy its nuclear forces at
a level necessary "to deter any threat to our vital interests."[150]
This position was reaffirmed by the Secretary of State for Defence
who told the House that:
83. The UK's nuclear arsenal now comprises a single
systemTrident Submarine-Launched Ballistic Missiles
(SLBMs). As part of its Strategic Defence Review, the present
Government made further reductions to its predecessor's deployments:
The ceiling of 96 warheads per boat was cut to an
exact deployment of 48 warheads on each operationally available
Trident submarine;
The total stockpile of operationally available warheads
was cut to less than 200 from a ceiling of 300;
Only one submarine is now on patrol at any one time
and is on a reduced state of readiness.
84. The FCO's memorandum pointed out that the UK's
"nuclear holdings are now considerably lower than those of
any other nuclear weapon state."[152]
This point was amplified by the Foreign Secretary in his evidence.
He made it clear that the Government had already made progress
on all four of the specific steps which the Final Document of
the NPT Review Conference committed the nuclear weapon states
to take:
Sir Michael Quinlan, former Permanent Secretary at
the MOD, stated that the significant unilateral changes announced
in the SDR has "had a wry incidental effect, in that there
now remains little that could be put on the table, other than
the complete abandonment of the capability, were we to be included
in some wider START-type arms-reduction negotiation."[154]
85. We acknowledge and commend the positive steps
taken by the Government with regard to the UK's nuclear posture.
However, a number of academics submitting evidence to us commented
on the lack of ideas within the international community about
how to proceed to global nuclear disarmament. Some questioned
whether global disarmament was being pursued seriously at all.
For example, in Professor MccGwire's view, "in theory, the
present government espouses the goal of a nuclear weapons free
world, as did its predecessor. Lip service is paid to the commitment,
but there is no evidence that the concept is taken seriously in
practice and it gathers dust in the bottom drawer, along with
the commitment to general and complete disarmament." [155]
Professor Baylis told us that "the interesting question is¼whether
we have any long term objectives in terms of trying to take the
process of minimum deterrence to the next stage."[156]
The Government should think creatively about how to proceed towards
minimum deterrence for all nuclear weapon states and not focus
its attention solely on existing arms control agreements and negotiations.
86. We accept the Government's statement that,
with the reductions in nuclear capability it has made, the UK's
deterrent "is the minimum necessary to provide for our security
for the forseeable future and smaller than those of the major
nuclear powers."[157]
We recommend that the Government make every endeavour to bring
about reductions by all nuclear weapon states to genuinely minimum
deterrent levels.
93
Ev. p. 167. Back
95
Brazil, Egypt, Ireland, Mexico, New Zealand, South Africa and
Sweden. Back
97
Ev. p. 46. Back
98
Ev. p. 99. Back
99
Ev. p. 130. Back
100
HC Deb 8 June 2000, col. 306w. Back
101
The Trilateral Initiative was created in 1996 to fulfill the commitments
made by Presidents Clinton and Yeltsin concerning IAEA verification
of weapons origin fissile material. Back
102
Principles and Objectives for Nuclear non-proliferation,
agreed at the 1995 NPT Review Conference, available at: www.acronym.org.uk/a11app3.htm. Back
105
Ev. p. 12. Back
106
Ev. p. 12. Back
109
Ev. pp. 6-7. Back
110
Ev. p. 105. Back
111
Ev. p. 106 Back
112
Ev. p. 106. Back
113
52 states had signed the additional Protocol and 14 states had
ratified it as of 12 July 2000-information at: http://www.iaea.org/worldatom/Programmes/Safeguards/sg_protocol.shtml. Back
116
As of June 2000, at http://www.ctbto.org/cgi-bin/ctbto_states.cgi?List=Required. Back
117
China, which has signed but not ratified the treaty, cites the
decision of the US Senate as the reason for its own delay in ratification. Back
118
Sino-British statement of 9 October 1998, following the visit
of Mr Blair to Beijing. Back
119
Ev. p. 99. Back
124
Ev. p. 100. Back
125
George Bunn, Disarmament Diplomacy, No. 42, December 1999, p.
12. Back
126
Ev. p. 100. Back
127
Ev. p. 206. Back
128
Acronym Institute web-site, http://www.acronym.org.uk, Special
Feature: US-Russia Arms Control Relationship, April 2000. Back
131
Ev. p. 147. Back
132
Third Report of the Foreign Affairs Committee, Session 1999-2000,
Relations with the Russian Federation, HC 101, paras. 51-52. Back
133
See, for example, Ev. pp. 210-217. Back
134
Ev. p. 30 and Ev. pp. 206-207. Back
135
Third Report of the Foreign Affairs Committee, Session 1999-2000,
Relations with the Russian Federation, HC 101, paras. 53-56. Back
137
Ev. p. 207. Back
141
Spending Review 2000, New Public Spending Plans 2001-2004,
HM Treasury July 2000, Cm 4807, p 143. Back
142
Ev. p. 128. Back
144
Ev. p. 31. Back
145
Ev. p. 128. Back
146
HC Deb, 8 June 2000, col. 306w. Back
147
HC Deb, 5 Jun 2000, col. 12. Back
148
Strategic Defence Review, Supporting Essays, p5-1. Back
149
Strategic Defence Review, Cm 3999, para. 60. Back
150
Strategic Defence Review, Cm 3999, para. 61. Back
151
HC Deb, 5 June 2000, col. 12. Back
152
Ev. p. 99. Back
154
Ev. p. 156. Back
155
Ev. p. 170. Back
157
Strategic Defence Review, Cm 3999, para. 70. Back
"The US Senate's rejection
of the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty, the failure to start Fissile
Material Cut-Off Treaty negotiations, US plans for a National
Missile Defence System, and the poor state of bilateral nuclear
arms control efforts between the US and Russia will inevitably
make it a difficult Conference".[98]
"The unequivocal undertaking
to the total elimination of their nuclear arsenals contained in
the final document of the 2000 NPT Review Conference is the most
explicit pledge ever made by the Nuclear Weapon States to work
for complete global nuclear disarmament. It is an important statement
of intent which we hope will provide a timely boost to international
non-proliferation and disarmament efforts. The UK played a key
role in securing agreement with the New Agenda Coalition for this
important achievement."[100]
To achieve the necessary ratifications to enable early entry into force of the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty (CTBT)
A moratorium on nuclear tests pending entry into force of the CTBT
The immediate commencement of negotiations on a Fissile Material Cut-Off Treaty (FMCT) with a view to their conclusion within five years
The Conference on Disarmament urged immediately to establish a body with a mandate to deal with nuclear disarmament
The principle of irreversibility in nuclear disarmament to apply
An unequivocal commitment to complete nuclear disarmament by the nuclear weapon states (see above)
The early entry into force and full implementation of START II and the conclusion of START III as soon as possible while "preserving and strengthening the ABM Treaty as a cornerstone of strategic stability and as a basis for further reductions in offensive weapons"
The completion and implementation of the Trilateral Initiative[101] between the US, Russia and the IAEA
Steps towards nuclear disarmament
Unilateral efforts
Increased transparency
Reduction of non-strategic weapons
Reduction in the operational status of nuclear weapons
Diminishing role for nuclear weapons in security policies
All the nuclear weapon states to engage in the process of disarmament as soon as appropriate
Arrangements to place all fissile material no longer needed for military purposes under IAEA or other relevant international verification and to ensure it remains permanently outside military programmes
Reaffirm the ultimate objective of general and complete disarmament
To provide regular reports on disarmament progress
Further development of verification capabilities relevant to assuring compliance with nuclear disarmament agreements and for achievement and maintenance of a nuclear weapon-free world
"the lack of effective
mechanisms within the international components of the nuclear
non-proliferation regime to deal with non-compliance with its
rules, and the inability of the United Nations machinery to deal
effectively with this matter."[105]
"The fundamental reason
for this was that the system had developed in such a way that
the IAEA's focus was more on checking the correctness of the information
declared to it by a non-nuclear weapon state than on checking
that such information was comprehensive."[110]
"The Additional Protocol
will enhance the IAEA's ability to detect and deter clandestine
activities in the non-nuclear weapon states. More information
will have to be provided to the Agency and it will have wider
inspection powers."[111]
"in a strong position
to encourage its European partners to conclude their ratification
procedures. The Additional Protocols for EU members, which are
trilateral IAEA/EURATOM/State Party agreements, will only enter
into force when all have ratified."[115]
"In the strategic defence
review, we carefully set out the importance of nuclear weapons
to the United Kingdom, as long as other countries retain them.
Nothing has changed in the interim."[151]
"First of all, further
efforts to reduce nuclear arsenals. As you will be aware, we halved
the number of planned warheads on the Trident submarines and are
now operating at reduced level of warheads. Second, increase transparency.
We are now the most transparent and most open of any of the nuclear
weapon states about the declared number of nuclear warheads. Third,
the further reduction of non-strategic nuclear weapons. I think
I am right in saying that we do not have any non-strategic nuclear
weapons now. Our only nuclear weapons are those on Trident. We
have eliminated all others. Finally, concrete measures to reduce
the operational stages. We have made it clear that we have reduced
the state of alert of our submarines and we are much more transparent
about what that state of alert is than anybody else. We are very
much in conformity already with what has been outlined in the
Review Conference document. Further progress must depend on progress
by other nuclear weapon states. We remain ready to consider further
steps we can take but it is difficult to see, having done as much
as we have in the past three years, what more we can do unilaterally."[153]
92 As they are committed to do under Article VI of
the treaty. Back
Prepared 2 August 2000