Prepared By: John A. Battilega, David R. Beachley, Daniel C. Beck, Robert L. Driver, Bruce Jackson
For the last two years, strategic research has been underway on the recent transformations in global defense markets and defense industries. The research has focused on the development of a better understanding of the potential implications of change for the future of warfare. Warfare in this context is taken broadly. It includes the preparation for and conduct of combat operations, as well as the basic characteristics of war as defined by grand strategy, doctrine, intelligence capabilities and expectations, and logistics writ large (armaments, mobilization, and sustainment). The time frame of interest is beyond the range of short-term planning, from 10-30 years or more into the future. The research emphasized the supply side of the global armaments process more than the demand side.
The research has included: the analysis of data on defense industries and markets; the analysis of the historical record for previous periods of fundamental military-technical change; the analysis of national literature to better understand country perspectives; mini-seminars and doctrinal investigations to explore potential future warfare aspects; and the sponsorship of conferences drawing together experts from government, academia, non-profits, and industry to discuss specific aspects of change.
The research was conducted as a part of the Director of Central Intelligence Strategic Estimates Program, which is focused on developing a better understanding of large complex strategic issues affecting the future security environment.
Summary: The Emerging Global Armament System and the Future of Warfare
This volume summarizes the main insights from the research. Separately discussed are: global transformations in defense markets and industries; two key trends important for the future of warfare; composite characteristics of the global armaments transformation; first order security consequences of a diffused armaments world; adapting to new defense-economic realities; warfare in a diffused armaments world; specific national security issues for the United States; and important strategic uncertainties.
The organization and text of this volume greatly benefited from comments and revisions suggested by MG (ret.) John R. Landry, National Intelligence Officer for Conventional Military Issues, US National Intelligence Council. An earlier abbreviated version of the text has also been published by the National Intelligence Council.
This volume documents research on twelve specific countries. The purpose of the research was to develop a basic understanding about how those countries are dealing internally with the issues associated with change in defense markets and industries. For each country, an analysis was done of the current national security situation, the national defense industrial base, the national armament strategy, perspectives on the international arms export market, transformations in the defense industrial base, and country risks and concerns. Key observations that bear on the issue of global transformations in defense markets and industries were also identified. The countries analyzed in this volume are: