IRIN Special Report on Rapprochement with the Taliban

ISLAMABAD, 27 November (IRIN) - The reality of Afghanistan is often
difficult to swallow. A country ravaged by years of war - not to mention
drought, poverty and hunger - Afghanistan is effectively ruled by the
Taliban Islamic Movement of Afghanistan. That the Taliban controls up to
95 percent of Afghan territory is disputed by few, yet the legitimacy of
the Taliban administration in Kabul is recognised by just three states:
Pakistan, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates.

Notwithstanding that fact, there is a recent change in attitude towards
the Taliban among Afghanistan's Central Asian neighbours and, for those
who speculate, perhaps also among some western governments. This does not
necessarily represent acceptance of the authority of the Taliban's regime:
the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan, but rather a pragmatic understanding
that the Taliban movement is the major socio-political force in
Afghanistan today, and that any solution to the Afghan conflict must
include it.

On 2 November, US American Ambassador to Pakistan William Milam met the
Taliban's ambassador to Pakistan, Abdul Salem Zaeef, in the Pakistani
capital Islamabad. Their meeting was short and cordial, and viewed by many
as "a courtesy call" by one diplomat to another. Although details of their
discussions were elusive, the broader message being sent was even more so.
Had the time come for dialogue between the US and the movement that
controls Afghanistan?

The US has bitterly opposed recognition of the Taliban internationally,
successfully lobbying against the movement assuming Afghanistan's seat at
the UN this year. [The UN General Assembly seat for Afghanistan is still
held by the deposed former president, Burhanuddin Rabbani.] It has worked
hard to maintain international sanctions on the Taliban - primarily in an
effort to secure the extradition of Saudi dissident Osama bin Laden, whom
it alleges is responsible for the 1998 bombing of US embassies in Kenya
and Tanzania.

Central Asia analyst Barnett Rubin of the Centre on International
Cooperation at New York University, USA, dismissed the view that the
US-Taliban meeting might represent a policy change, telling IRIN on
Wednesday last that such relations were hardly new, nor did they reflect
any sign of a softening in the US position. "On the contrary, the US and
Russia have agreed on a proposal to increase sanctions against the
Taliban, and are campaigning for it to be adopted by the UN Security
Council," Rubin said.

"For some reason, every time a westerner meets with a representative of
the Taliban, someone seizes on it as a sign of a change of policy,
apparently unaware that western diplomats have always met with Taliban
representatives - from the first appearance of the movement." [The Taliban
has held meetings with numerous western envoys in Islamabad, including
those of Britain, Canada and Germany, according to diplomatic sources.]

However, the position of Afghanistan's neighbours in Central Asia is
entirely different, according to Rubin. For some of these, who had
vehemently opposed the Taliban, the diplomatic stance in recent weeks has
been far more pragmatic - a softening of position which would have been
scarcely imaginable a few months ago, he said.

Dr Olivier Roy of the National Centre of Scientific Research in France
echoed the same idea when he told 'Azadi Afghan radio' in an interview on
8 November: "I see a strategic realignment in Central Asia now among the
new republics. Tajikistan has supported commander [Ahmad Shah] Masood
against the Taliban, and is itself supported by the Russians and Iranians.
On the other hand, Uzbekistan - a country that was until recently was very
much opposed to the Taliban - has mended fences with them and is beginning
some rapprochement with the Taliban."

Most of Afghanistan's largely secular Central Asian neighbours have long
accused the Taliban of funding and harbouring Islamic militants which
threaten regional stability. In an interview with IRIN on 8 November,
Taliban Ambassador Abdul Salam Zaeef denied this, saying that Uzbekistan
and others now understood such claims to be "exaggerated Russian
propaganda".

After an October meeting of a six-nation grouping of Central Asian states,
all signatories of a collective security agreement, Uzbek President Islam
Karimov was quoted by news sources as saying that the Taliban did not
represent a threat to his country. "We might not like them, but this force
has become the dominating one and we don't need any escalation, conflicts
or wars," Karimov said.

Foreign Minister Abdulaziz Kamilov later said his government was ready to
open the Afghan-Uzbek border, and to forge friendly ties with the Taliban
authorities if the situation in Afghanistan stabilised.

Uzbekistan, in particular, is in a quandary, according to Barnett Rubin.
"It would like to block the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan (IMU)
[reportedly trained and supported by the Taliban], but without increasing
the Russian military presence or influence in the area. Therefore,
Tashkent might like to explore whether the Taliban might be willing to
rein in the IMU in return for something, whether recognition or something
else," he said.

However, "Karimov made his statement in October about accepting the
Taliban as a reality without consulting or informing other officials, and
the [Uzbek] government is confused about its policy," Rubin added.

Kazakhstan, too, "is willing to establish contacts and hold talks with
representatives of all movements and groups in Afghanistan, including the
Taliban," according to President Nursultan Nazarbayev, quoted by news
sources during a visit to the Kazakh capital Astana by Pakistan's ruler
General Pervez Musharraf on 6 November.

Kazakh Foreign Minister Nurlan Idrisov later said the softer line was
based on pragmatism. "Kazakhstan has no allergy towards any single group
in Afghanistan. All we want is a government which can bring the country to
peace, and bring it into the international community as a fully-fledged
member," he said.

Asked about the official stance of Kazakhstan towards Afghanistan, the
First Secretary at the Kazakh embassy in Islamabad, Toleugazy Abzhanov,
told IRIN on Thursday: "Kazakhstan calls for the formation of a broad
based multi-ethnic representative coalition government, acceptable to all
Afghans. Kazakhstan stands for the unconditional end of interference in
the internal affairs of Afghanistan; this is a prerequisite to the
settlement of the Afghan issue. And political dialogue between the warring
sides should be held under the auspices of the UN."

Kazakhstan is a member of the 'Shanghai Five', a regional security and
cooperation grouping established in 1996 between China, Kazakhstan,
Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Russia in an effort to tackle international
terrorism, drugs, contraband weapons and illegal immigration among other
issues. "The main problems for the Shanghai Five come from Afghanistan and
the war there," Abzhanov told IRIN.

"Of course they [the Kazakhs] are talking to the Taliban, and accepting
them as more of a reality to see if any accommodation is possible, but one
should not exaggerate the importance of a few meetings," said regional
analyst Barnett Rubin.

Russia has long maintained that the Taliban is a threat to regional
stability. Asked to what extent the movement posed a threat to Russian
interests, Andrei Kortunov, a leading Russian international security
affairs expert, said in an interview with EuroasiaNet on 14 November:
"There are political forces in Russia, and some local leaders and
journalists, who tend to be apocalyptic about the Taliban and their
potential march through Central Asia. They have their own domino theories
about Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan, and some go as far as to state that this
form of Islamic fundamentalism might reach Russia proper."

According to Kortunov, "Russia is 'a status quo power' in Central Asia: it
would prefer to see only gradual change."

While Russia remains adamantly opposed to the Taliban Islamic Movement, it
too is softening its rhetoric. "We are for settlement in Afghanistan. We
want the two sides to sit down at the table and begin negotiations... Only
a broad-based government in Afghanistan can settle this situation," said
Russian Ambassador to Pakistan Eduard Shevchenko at a press conference in
Islamabad on 15 November.

But the Russian view is particularly 'pragmatic', according to diplomatic
sources. Asked if Shevchenko's remarks meant a major change of policy, the
Russian Federation Press Secretary in Islamabad Yevgeny Griva told IRIN
that nothing had changed, and yet something had. "We still do not
recognise the Taliban. Nonetheless, we have to be realistic here as they
do control 95 percent of Afghan territory and undoubtedly will be the
dominant force in any new government."

While the international community does not officially recognise the
Taliban regime, recent diplomatic shifts and rhetoric indicate recognition
of its importance to any lasting peace in Afghanistan. As one diplomat
told IRIN: "The Taliban is a reality we have to deal with and, until we do
so, there will be no end to the pain and suffering of the Afghan people,
now or in the future."