DATE=11/13/00

TYPE=BACKGROUND REPORT

TITLE=CENTRAL ASIA AND THE TALEBAN

NUMBER=5-47374

BYLINE=ED WARNER

DATELINE=WASHINGTON

CONTENT=

VOICED AT:

INTRO: Mounting evidence links Osama bin Laden to acts of terrorism against the United States, which is putting more pressure on the Taleban to surrender him. But analysts say the accused terrorist is just part of an intricate puzzle enveloping Central Asia. Many forces are at work in the region, including Russian ambitions, and it is hard to sort them all out, though analysts are trying. V-O-A's Ed Warner presents some of their widely varying views.

TEXT: New evidence implicates Osama bin Laden in the 1998 bombings of U-S embassies in Africa, say two American specialists on counter-terrorism.

Writing in the New York Times, Milt Bearden and Larry Johnson note that in pleading guilty to his role in the bombings, a former U-S army sergeant admitted Osama bin Laden was also involved. In their opinion, that should be enough evidence to satisfy the Taleban, who could then release him for trial in an Islamic court in another country.

But will they? Although they have been engaged in talks with U-S officials, the Taleban has shown little sign of budging on Osama bin Laden or any other issue. Moinuddin Haider, Interior Minister of Pakistan, which supports the Taleban, says the Taleban has not returned several Pakistani terrorists who took refuge in Afghanistan.

In an interview with V-O-A, Under Secretary of State Thomas Pickering said the United States is cooperating with Russia to bring pressure on the Taleban:

/// PICKERING ACT ///

We agreed on the need to impose additional U-N sanctions against the Taleban, principally because they failed to comply with Resolution 12-67 and send Osama to a place where he can be brought to justice and because they have continued to support Afghanistan terrorism. In that battle, we are prepared to go and work with whoever is prepared to help in the fight, whether it is Russia or Pakistan or India or Saudi Arabia, or whoever.

/// END ACT ///

Mr. Pickering added that the United States does not object to Russian troops providing security in Tajikistan - just north of the fighting in Afghanistan.

That is questionable security, counters Vladimir Socor, senior analyst of the Washington-based Jamestown Foundation. Speaking from his post in Munich, Germany, he notes the Russian effort to regain control of Central Asia:

/// SOCOR ACT ///

Russian policy does not seek stability. The key concept here is that of controlled instability. As in other parts of the former Soviet Union or on the borders of the former Soviet Union, the Russian policy is based on this concept of controlled instability, which implies exploiting local conflicts in order to enable Russia to emerge as a political and military arbiter.

/// END ACT ///

Mr. Socor says Russia is aiding anti-Taleban forces in northern Afghanistan to keep Central Asia in turmoil and thus weaken Uzbekistan, its main rival in the region.

Uzbekistan has been improving its relations with the Taleban and, along with Turkmenistan, argues that Afghanistan is not making any kind of trouble across its border.

That point was emphasized by former foreign minister of Turkmenistan Boris Shikhmuradov, at a meeting in Washington. Many visits to Afghanistan have persuaded him the Taleban want peaceful relations with their neighbors after all the exhausting years of war:

/// SHIKHMURADOV ACT ///

This problem cannot be resolved by sanctions against the Taleban or any other Afghan government. The only way to deal with this conflict is by dialogue in cooperation with the international community. The Taleban have agreed to this through the United Nations.

/// END ACT ///

Others are more skeptical, but Mr. Shikhmuradov said he had the advantage of meeting with Mullah Omar, the reclusive Taleban leader. He is not a great conversationalist, the minister conceded, and he has strong convictions, but he is willing to listen and even encourage tourism, according to reports. Three-months ago, he issued a decree to preserve two famous giant Buddha statues, which the Taleban had planned to destroy.

The U-S Government says flatly the Taleban continues to harbor other terrorist groups along with Osama bin Laden. In the Far Eastern Economic Review, Pakistani journalist and author Ahmed Rashid writes that by forbidding legitimate opposition, the repressive Central Asian governments have given rise to Islamic militants determined to overthrow them. Some of these are based in Afghanistan.

Mr. Rashid cites the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan, which he says has three-thousand heavily armed fighters in Afghanistan. But this is disputed by Vladimir Socor, who says the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan launch their attacks on Uzbekistan from Tajikistan with Russian connivance. He insists Tajikistan, not Afghanistan, is the main source of instability in Central Asia.

At the least, say bewildered observers, the so-called - Great Game - of the 19th century the British-Russian rivalry was simplicity itself compared to today's Central Asian complexities. (SIGNED)

NEB/EW/RAE