DATE=4/8/2000
TYPE=BACKGROUND REPORT
TITLE=TERRORISM OUTLOOK
NUMBER=5-46102
BYLINE=ED WARNER
DATELINE=WASHINGTON
CONTENT=
VOICED AT:


INTRO:  Terrorism is clearly a threat, but can the 
threat be exaggerated?  At a recent Washington 
conference, two analysts said it can be and that this 
is exactly what the terrorists want.  Their goal is to 
terrorize.  Ours, say the analysts, is not to let them 
get away with it.  V-O-A's Ed Warner reports.


TEXT:  Terrorist groups present more of a challenge 
than ever.  Those that have survived have profited 
from the experience.  They are better financed and 
organized, sometimes equipped with computers, internet 
web sites and television stations.  They have become 
skilled propagandists, matching word for word the 
governments they oppose.

That is terrorism today, said Bruce Hoffman, director 
of Rand, a leading research organization, who was 
speaking at a conference held by the Center for 
Nonproliferation Studies in Washington.

But he added that paradoxically, terrorism appears to 
be in decline.  Counter-terrorism has been effective, 
he said, and at least for the time being, terrorists 
have chosen not to act.  Usually rational, their aim 
is to achieve a political purpose.  But for the 
moment, they do not seem to have one in mind.

Yet there are more fears of terrorism than ever 
before, says Mr. Hoffman, and particularly of the use 
of weapons of mass destruction -- nuclear, chemical, 
biological.

Why this discrepancy? asks Mr. Hoffman:

            /// Hoffman Act ///

      One has to ask whether the lull in conventional 
      terrorism does not produce a preoccupation or a 
      fascination with extreme forms of hypothetical 
      terrorism.  Terrorism always sells news; it is 
      good media copy.  When the news is slow for many 
      media outlets, that can be manipulated by both 
      terrorists and by governments.  This is a way to 
      fill the void.

            /// End Act ///

Exaggerating the terrorist threat may play into the 
terrorists' hands, says Mr. Hoffman.  After all, their 
goal is to instill fear.  Why make it easy for them by 
going along with this?

            /// Hoffman Act ///

      If they are incapable of carrying out terrorist 
      attacks at this time, if they have been stymied 
      by the security forces, thwarted by good 
      intelligence -- as I would argue Osama Bin Laden 
      has been for the past 20 months -- would it not 
      benefit them to play the W-M-D [EDS: weapons of 
      mass destruction] card, to make all sorts of 
      utterances or whispers about using biological or 
      chemical terrorism as a means to get into the 
      press, which they have repeatedly succeeded in 
      doing?  In other words, they are able to attract 
      attention to themselves and their causes to 
      inflate their own power.

            /// End Act ///

We should not confuse rhetoric with reality, says Mr. 
Hoffman, nor assume total victory is possible.  While 
the fight against terrorism can never be relaxed, it 
also can never be won.  No society -- not even a harsh 
totalitarian one -- can completely eliminate the 
threat.  Unrealistic expectations can lead to military 
actions that gain more support for the terrorists.

Terrorists blend into the larger society, said Magnus 
Ranstorp, deputy director of the Study of Terrorism 
and Political Violence at the University of St. 
Andrews in Scotland.  He cited the example of Hamas, 
the hard-line Palestinian group opposed to the peace 
process.

            /// Ranstorp Act ///

      I usually try to dispel the myth that Hamas is 
      some dark creature hanging in a corner plotting 
      and planning to strike at every time.  Hamas 
      cuts horizontally and vertically through 
      Palestinian society.  It is part of Palestinian 
      society.  The major activity Hamas is engaged in 
      is on the social and political front.  And 
      sometimes of course, they do engage in violence 
      -- terrorist activity.

            /// End Act ///

Mr. Ranstorp noted that a top official in the 
Palestinian Authority has a brother who is a leading 
member of Hamas.

He added that the Palestinian Authority has a firm 
grip on Hamas and can unleash it if peace talks with 
Israel fail.  Then terrorism once again would serve a 
clear political purpose.   (signed)

NEB/EW/JP




08-Apr-2000 11:15 AM EDT (08-Apr-2000 1515 UTC)
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Source: Voice of America
.