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USIS Washington File

02 February 2000

CIA Director on Ballistic Missile Threats to United States

(Tenet tells Senate committee of probable perpetrators)  (500)
By Susan Ellis
Washington File Staff Writer

The Director of the Central Intelligence Agency, George Tenet, says
threats are growing from weapons of mass destruction (WMD) aimed at
the United States from many parts of the world, and that "over the
next 15 years...our cities will face ballistic missile threats
from...North Korea, probably Iran, and possibly Iraq."

In testimony February 2 before the Senate Select Committee on
Intelligence, Tenet said Usama Bin Ladin "is still foremost" among
terrorists planning attacks against the United States and that more
than half of 24 terrorists brought to justice since July 1998 "were
associates" of Bin Ladin's Al-Qa'ida organization.

He said that despite some disruptions, U.S. intelligence officials
believe Bin Ladin could strike without warning, and that the terrorist
-- along with others -- is "placing increased emphasis on developing
surrogates to carry out attacks in an effort to avoid detection."

Intelligence officials are "familiar with Russian and Chinese
capabilities to strike at military and civilian targets throughout the
United States," Tenet said, adding that in the post-Yeltsin Russia,
Russian polls indicate that Acting President Vladimir Putin "is the
odds-on favorite" to win the next election in two months, and he will
face many challenges. The way he decides to meet them, Tenet said,
will determine whether Russia continues to move "further along the
path toward economic recovery and democratic stability."

The CIA official also testified on the security situation vis a vis
the Caucasus and Central Asia, saying that Chechnya "has significance"
because it "has the potential to become more volatile as it becomes
more important to the United States."

Tenet covered other regions of the world "where vital US interests are
at stake" including the Middle East, Iran, Iraq, the Balkans, Kosovo,
China, North Korea, East Asia, Indonesia, Africa, and India-Pakistan.

Citing "the deep-seated rivalry" between India and Pakistan, he noted
that "India enjoys advantages over Pakistan in most areas of
conventional defense preparedness. He said that recent changes in
government in both countries "add tensions," and that General
Musharraf's rule in Pakistan "has reinforced New Delhi's inclination
not to reopen the bilateral dialogue" soon.

Tenet said the new year brings "continuing deep concerns about the
antagonisms that persist in South Asia and their potential to fuel a
wider and more dangerous conflict on the subcontinent."

Speaking of sub-Saharan Africa's "marginalization" because of its
"infinitesimal share of world trade in goods and services," he said as
the continent's small role in the international economy has faded,
"instability has intensified."

Instability fosters conditions "potentially leading to genocide and
other massive human rights abuses," Tenet said, adding that "endemic
violence and instability increase the danger that criminal and
insurgent groups will zero in on individual U.S. citizens as soft
targets."

(The Washington File is a product of the Office of International
Information Programs, U.S. Department of State.)