DATE=1/5/2000 TYPE=BACKGROUND REPORT TITLE=TERRORISM OUTLOOK NUMBER=5-45178 BYLINE=ED WARNER DATELINE=WASHINGTON CONTENT= VOICED AT: INTRO: Despite fears of terror attacks at the end of the millennium, only one major incident marred the New-Year holiday: the seizure of an Indian Airlines plane by hijackers demanding freedom for Kashmiri militants. At a post-holiday review (Wednesday), analysts pondered the outlook for terrorism around the world in 2000. V-O-A's Ed Warner reports on the discussion. TEXT: From the point of view of India, terrorism looms large. Understandably, since terrorists hijacked an Indian Airlines plane with 155 passengers for eight tense days. The hijackers were acting on behalf of Kashmiri militants fighting Indian control of the Himalayan territory. Naresh Chandra, India's ambassador to the United States, stresses the involvement of Pakistan in the incident, which Pakistan vehemently denies. The ambassador also says the terrorist conspiracy is far broader: /// CHANDRA ACT /// Everybody is involved. Today it is India. Tomorrow it can be somebody else. The group that has done it has fingers in other countries as well. They have operated in the Philippines. They have also been active in Africa. To see it just as an offshoot of the Kashmir dispute would be a very foolish mistake on the part of those who are interested in combating terrorism. /// END ACT /// Ambassador Chandra made his remarks at a meeting of the Potomac Institute for Policy Studies, a Washington group that tracks terrorism. Philip Wilcox, former coordinator for Counter- Terrorism at the U-S State Department, also participated. Terrorism is vicious and unnerving, he says, but do not exaggerate it. In fact, acts of international terrorism have been sharply declining -- from a peak of 666 in 1987 to 173 in 1998. No increase is expected when last year's figures become available. Mr. Wilcox notes many of the incidents involve minor violence against business targets, with no loss of life. For that reason, he said terrorism should be kept in perspective: /// 1st WILCOX ACT /// Among all the forms of violence and mayhem that we experience, it is not the primary threat to our well being and security. The probability that any of us will be killed by terrorists is minuscule, compared to the other kinds of violence that we face. Last year, the number of Americans who died in international terrorist acts was less than 10. In the United States, 13 children a day on the average are killed by gunfire. /// END ACT /// Various offices of the U-S government issued many warnings of possible terrorism during the holiday season. They have an obligation to do this, said Mr. Wilcox, to share their information with the public. But the danger is that could unnecessarily alarm people -- which is just what the terrorists seek to do. /// 2ND WILCOX ACT /// The real power of terrorism, and why we take it so seriously, is that it creates enormous fear, and that indeed is the aim of terrorists. It is not so much to kill people; it is to frighten them, and they have done so quite successfully. /// END ACT /// Mr. Wilcox says terrorists are skilled at manipulating the media, and indeed, threats of terrorism were headline stories for several days. Mr. Wilcox adds, it is not enough just to fight terrorism after the event. It must be attacked at its roots, which lie in ethnic and political conflicts in many parts of the world. The lack of terrorism over the holidays may be partly explained by the settlement of some disputes; in northern Ireland, for instance, and negotiations between Israelis and Palestinians. It also helped that Libya handed over the suspects in the bombing of Pan Am Flight 103 to a British court. If the conflict in Kashmir can be resolved, said Mr. Wilcox, that would lead to still less terrorism. (Signed) NEB/EW/WTW 05-Jan-2000 17:55 PM EDT (05-Jan-2000 2255 UTC) NNNN Source: Voice of America .