DATE=7/1/99
TYPE=BACKGROUND REPORT
NUMBER=5-43787
TITLE=CHINA/INTERNET 
BYLINE=NICK SIMEONE
DATELINE=WASHINGTON
CONTENT=
VOICED AT: 

INTRO:  INTERNET USAGE IS RAPIDLY GROWING IN CHINA AND WITH MORE 
THAN A BILLION PEOPLE, THE COUNTRY HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME 
THE WORLD'S LARGEST INTERNET MARKET.  BUT AS INTERNET ACCESS 
INCREASES, BEIJING IS FINDING IT MORE DIFFICULT TO RESTRICT 
ACCESS TO WEB SITES IT WOULD RATHER THE CHINESE PEOPLE NOT SEE.  
CORRESPONDENT NICK SIMEONE IN WASHINGTON HAS BEEN LOOKING INTO 
THE STATUS OF CYBERSPACE IN CHINA.  

TEXT:   ESTIMATES VARY, BUT AS MANY AS TWO MILLION PEOPLE ARE NOW
BELIEVED TO BE USING THE INTERNET IN MAINLAND CHINA.  WITHIN THE 
NEXT FOUR YEARS THOUGH, 33 MILLION MORE -- OR THREE PERCENT OF 
CHINA'S POPULATION -- ARE PREDICTED TO BE ON LINE.   

                  /// FIRST ZAHURANCIK ACT ///

         IT'S STILL A RELATIVELY SMALL PENETRATION RATE, BUT 
         GIVEN THE OVERALL SIZE OF THE CHINESE MARKET, THE 
         OPPORTUNITY THERE IS TREMENDOUS FOR A VERY HIGH OVERALL 
         GROWTH RATE OVER THE NEXT FEW YEARS.    

                          // END ACT //

JOHN ZAHURANCIK IS PART OF THE STRATEGIS CONSULTING GROUP, WHICH 
HAS JUST PUBLISHED A REPORT THAT -- AT THREE THOUSAND DOLLARS A 
COPY -- IS ADVISING BUSINESSES ABOUT FUTURE INTERNET TRENDS IN 
CHINA.

                  /// SECOND ZAHURANCIK ACT ///

         RIGHT NOW, WE'RE SEEING A LOT OF DEVELOPMENTS WITH NEW 
         PLAYERS TRYING TO PROVIDE CHINESE LANGUAGE CONTENT, 
         TRANSLATION OF ENGLISH SITE CONTENT AND I THINK WE'LL 
         CONTINUE TO SEE THAT.   

                        // END ACT //   

BUT PERHAPS THE MORE IMPORTANT QUESTION IS NOT HOW WIDESPREAD 
INTERNET USAGE IN CHINA WILL BECOME, BUT HOW FREE.  THE CHINESE 
GOVERNMENT, LIKE OTHERS THAT DO NOT ALLOW A FREE MEDIA, FILTERS 
THE CONTENT OF THE WEB.  MANY WEBSITES CONTAINING NEWS AND 
OPINION THAT DIFFER FROM THE GOVERNMENT'S REMAIN BLOCKED OFF.  
BUT  MR. ZAHURANCIK SAYS  MORE SITES, AS WELL AS E-MAIL FROM 
DISSIDENTS ABROAD, ARE GETTING PAST THE CENSORS.   

                  /// THIRD ZAHURANCIK ACT ///

         THAT BATTLE IS STILL BEING FOUGHT.  THERE'S BEEN A 
         NUMBER OF THINGS HAPPENING IN THE CHINESE MARKET THAT 
         LOOK AT OPENING UP GREATER ACCESS TO CONTENTS.  SOME 
         SITES HAVE BEEN BLOCKED FROM TIME TO TIME, BUT IT SEEMS 
         LIKE THERE IS  GREATER AND GREATER ACCESS TO CONTENT 
         FROM ALL OVER THE GLOBE TO MOST USERS. 

                         /// END ACT ///

THAT MAY BE TRUE NOW.  BUT, WHAT WOULD HAPPEN IF, SAY, CHINA SAW 
ANOTHER MASS MOVEMENT AGAINST THE GOVERNMENT SIMILAR TO THE ONE 
IN TIANANMEN SQUARE TEN YEARS AGO -- THIS ONE GIVEN ADDED 
MOMENTUM BY INFORMATION RECEIVED OVER THE INTERNET?  CHEUK KWAN 
IS INTERNATIONAL COORDINATOR FOR THE ANTI-BEIJING GLOBAL PETITION
CAMPAIGN FOR HUMAN RIGHTS.    

                        /// CHEUK ACT ///

         IT IS VERY POSSIBLE THAT WITHIN A FEW YEARS FROM NOW 
         THERE MIGHT BE A MASS MOVEMENT, THIS TIME NOT ON 
         TIANANMEN SQUARE BUT ON WEB SITES AND INTERNET SITES 
         THROUGHOUT CHINA.  IT'S ALMOST IMPOSSIBLE FOR CHINA TO 
         STOP WEBSITES WITHIN CHINA.  THERE'S JUST TOO MANY 
         WEBSITES RIGHT NOW IN CHINA AND HOST SITES IN CHINA, SO 
         THE CHINESE GOVERNMENT CAN NOT WATCH IT.  

                         /// END ACT ///

CHINA IS NOT THE ONLY GOVERNMENT THAT REFUSES TO ALLOW ITS 
CITIZENS TO RECEIVE THE WEB UNFILTERED.  DECLAN MCCULLAGH IS 
WASHINGTON CORRESPONDENT FOR WIRED MAGAZINE, WHICH CLOSELY 
FOLLOWS DEVELOPMENTS IN CYBERSPACE.

                   /// FIRST MCCULLAGH ACT ///

         THIS IS NOT UNIQUE TO CHINA.  IT'S A QUESTION THAT ALL 
         ASIAN COUNTRIES ARE GRAPPLING WITH.  HOW CAN THEY 
         PRESERVE WHAT THEY VIEW AS THEIR COUNTRY'S CULTURE AND 
         RECONCILE THAT WITH THE GREAT FREEDOM AND UNCONTROLLED 
         AMOUNT OF INFORMATION AVAILABLE ON THE INTERNET?   

                         /// END ACT ///

IF CHINA AND OTHER ASIAN NATIONS DO MOVE TO EASE RESTRAINTS ON 
THE INTERNET  -- AND THE REPORT BY THE STRATEGIS GROUP SUGGESTS 
THIS IS THE TREND -- FOREIGN BROADCASTERS, LIKE THE VOICE OF 
AMERICA, MAY FIND NEW COMPETITION.  

                  /// SECOND MCCULLAGH ACT /// 

         THE WONDERFUL THING ABOUT THE INTERNET IS THAT PEOPLE 
         CAN FIND EXACTLY WHAT THEY'RE LOOKING FOR.  WITH 
         BROADCAST, THEY HAVE TO TAKE WHAT THEY'RE GIVEN.  BUT IF
         THEY HAVE ACCESS TO THE INTERNET, IT'S A WONDERFUL WAY 
         TO FIND NEWS.  IT COULD VERY WELL EMERGE AS A RIVAL TO 
         SOME  FORMS OF BROADCAST.  



                        //  END ACT /// 

REGARDLESS OF HOW THE TUG OF WAR OVER INTERNET FREEDOM PLAYS OUT,
INTERNET-RELATED BUSINESSES ARE ATTRACTED TO THE HUGE NEW MARKET 
THAT CHINA COULD OFFER.  BUT WITH MILLIONS OF CHINESE LACKING 
EVEN BASIC PHONE SERVICE, THE WORLD'S MOST POPULOUS NATION STILL 
HAS A LONG WAY TO GO BEFORE ADVERTISERS AS WELL AS SILICON VALLEY
CAN TAKE ADVANTAGE OF AN ON-LINE AUDIENCE OF A BILLION OR MORE 
PEOPLE.  (SIGNED) 

NEB/NJS/GM



01-Jul-99 5:34 PM EDT (2134 UTC)
NNNN

Source: Voice of America
.