DATE=4/14/99
TYPE=BACKGROUND REPORT
NUMBER=5-43115
TITLE= PREVENTING TERRORISM
BYLINE=CAROL PINEAU
DATELINE=WASHINGTON
CONTENT=
VOICED AT: WASHINGTON

INTRO:   SECURITY EXPERTS SAY A NEW PROPOSAL TO SPEND 
ONE-POINT-FOUR BILLION DOLLARS TO HELP SAFEGUARD U-S MISSIONS 
AROUND THE WORLD FROM TERRORISM IS ESSENTIAL.  BUT AS V-O-A'S 
CAROL PINEAU REPORTS THESE SAME EXPERTS WARN EVEN WITH MORE 
SECURITY, THERE IS NO WAY TO BE 100-PERCENT SAFE FROM TERRORIST 
ATTACKS.

TEXT: FOLLOWING THE TERRORIST BOMBS AT THE U-S EMBASSIES IN KENYA
AND TANZANIA LAST AUGUST, THE U-S STATE DEPARTMENT SAID BOTH 
EMBASSIES HAD RECEIVED VARIOUS INTELLIGENCE REPORTS ON POTENTIAL 
TERRORIST ATTACKS, BUT NO SPECIFIC THREATS. 

ADMIRAL WILLIAM CROWE CHAIRED THE STATE DEPARTMENT'S 
ACCOUNTABILITY REVIEW BOARD LOOKING INTO THE AFRICA BOMBINGS.  HE
EXPLAINS EVERY EMBASSY AROUND THE WORLD RECEIVES GENERAL 
INTELLIGENCE REPORTS OF POTENTIAL THREATS, BUT SAYS THE REPORTS 
ARE  NOT  RELIABLE PREDICTORS OF TERRORIST ATTACKS.   

                      /// CROWE ACT #1 ///

         POLICY AND INTELLIGENCE OFFICIALS HAVE RELIED HEAVILY ON
         WARNING INTELLIGENCE TO MEASURE THREATS, WHEREAS 
         EXPERIENCE HAS SHOWN TRANSNATIONAL TERRORISTS OFTEN 
         STRIKE WITHOUT WARNING TO VULNERABLE TARGETS AND AREAS 
         WHERE EXPECTATIONS OF ATTACKS ARE LOW.

                         /// END ACT ///

INTERNATIONAL CRISIS CONSULTANT BRIAN JENKINS SAYS THAT ONE OF 
THE AXIOMS OF TERRORISM IS THAT ENSURING PHYSICAL SAFETY IN ONE 
PLACE DOES NOT PREVENT TERRORISM OVERALL.

                     /// JENKINS ACT #1 /// 

         TERRORISTS BEGIN BY IDENTIFYING TARGETS THAT ARE 
         SYMBOLICALLY SUITABLE.  THERE ARE MANY OF THESE, AND 
         FROM THIS LONG LIST OF CANDIDATES THEY WILL CHOOSE A 
         TARGET ON THE BASIS OF ITS VULNERABILITY.  A WELL 
         PROTECTED FACILITY WILL PERSUADE THEM TO SEEK ANOTHER, 
         EASIER TARGET.  PHYSICAL SECURITY WORKS IN THAT IT DOES 
         DISPLACE THE RISK, BUT IT DOES NOT DEPRIVE THE TERRORIST
         OF THE TARGETS TO ATTACK.  

                         /// END ACT ///

MR. JENKINS SAYS IF ALL U-S EMBASSIES WERE PROTECTED, CONSULATES 
AND AMBASSADORS' RESIDENCES WOULD BECOME MORE VULNERABLE.  AND IF
THOSE BECAME WELL GUARDED, TERRORISTS WOULD GO AFTER AMERICAN 
CULTURAL CENTERS, CLUBS, SCHOOLS, CORPORATIONS AND CHURCHES.

                       /// BEGIN OPT /// 

BUT MR. JENKINS SAYS FROM A TERRORIST'S POINT OF VIEW, SOFT 
TARGETS ARE OFTEN "LESS LUCRATIVE," AS THEY GET LOWER NUMBERS OF 
THE TARGETED VICTIMS.  MR. JENKINS NOTES IN LAST YEAR'S AFRICA 
BOMBINGS NEARLY 99-PERCENT OF THE DEAD AND INJURED WERE AFRICAN 
-- NOT THE INTENDED AMERICANS.  MR. JENKINS SAYS IT IS A 
PERCENTAGE WHICH, FROM A TERRORISTS POINT-OF-VIEW, IS 
COUNTER-PRODUCTIVE.

                  /// JENKINS ACT #2 - OPT ///

         FANATICS WHO BELIEVE THEY ARE ACTING IN THE NAME OF GOD 
         MAY CARE LITTLE ABOUT COLLATERAL CASUALTIES, BUT WANTON 
         KILLING DOES CREATE BACKLASHES THAT MAKE IT DIFFICULT TO
         RECRUIT LOCAL ALLIES AND MAINTAIN OPERATIONAL SECRECY 
         FOR FUTURE ATTACKS.

                        /// END ACT /// 

CONGRESS -- FACED WITH INNUMERABLE FINANCIAL DEMANDS -- HAS NOT 
ALLOTTED WHAT EXPERTS SAY IS SUFFICIENT FUNDS FOR INCREASED 
SECURITY.  BUT MR. JENKINS THREAT ASSESSMENTS SHOULD BE 
INFLUENCING THE BUDGET, NOT BUDGETS INFLUENCING THREAT 
ASSESSMENTS. /// END OPT ///

ADMIRAL CROWE SAYS U-S OFFICIALS MUST REALIZE THE THREAT IS REAL,
AND THAT IT WILL ONLY GET WORSE.   

                      /// CROWE ACT #2 ///

         THIS IS NOT THE KIND OF TERRORISM THEY GREW UP ON, AND 
         ITS GOING TO BE EVEN DIFFERENT WHEN THE BIOLOGICAL AND 
         CHEMICAL WEAPONS ENTER THE PICTURE.

                        /// END ACT ////

/// BEGIN OPT /// ADMIRAL CROWE SAYS IMPROVING SECURITY IS NOT 
JUST A MATTER OF PROTECTING U-S FOREIGN SERVICE PERSONNEL.

                      /// CROWE ACT #3 ///

         HOST COUNTRIES ARE DRAMATICALLY IMPACTED BY THESE 
         INCIDENTS...AND WHEN WE MAKE OUR EMBASSIES SAFER, WE'RE 
         NOT ONLY SAVING AMERICANS, WE'RE POSSIBLY SAVING A GREAT
         MANY FOREIGNERS AS WELL.

                   /// END ACT /// END OPT ///

INTERNATIONAL COOPERATION HAS BEEN HELPING TO REDUCE THE NUMBER 
OF TERRORIST ATTACKS.  SECURITY EXPERT BRIAN JENKINS SAYS THE 
UNITED STATES HAS BEEN ACTIVE IN USING A VARIETY OF INCENTIVES TO
ENCOURAGE STATES TO SUPPORT THE U-S DRIVE AGAINST TERRORISM.

                     /// JENKINS ACT #3 ///

         IT'S NO ACCIDENT THAT THE VOLUME OF TERRORIST ATTACKS 
         HAS DECLINED.  THE FACT IS THERE IS LESS STATE SUPPORT, 
         THERE ARE FEWER SAFE HAVENS, THERE IS A GREATER 
         WILLINGNESS ON THE PART OF GOVERNMENTS AROUND THE WORLD 
         TO GO AFTER, APPREHEND, PROSECUTE OR EXTRADITE 
         TERRORISTS.

                         /// END ACT ///

BUT MR. JENKINS AND OTHER EXPERTS BELIEVE THE THREAT REMAINS 
HIGH.  MR. JENKINS SAYS TERRORISTS ARE NO DOUBT PLANNING ATTACKS 
AT THIS TIME, AND THAT WHILE INCREASING SECURITY CAN REDUCE THE 
EASE WITH WHICH TERRORISTS OPERATE, IT CANNOT STOP EVERY ATTACK. 
(SIGNED)

NEB/CP/JO



15-Apr-99 10:54 AM EDT (1454 UTC)
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Source: Voice of America
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