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DATE=2/24/99 TYPE=BACKGROUND REPORT NUMBER=5-42696 TITLE=LIBYA/LOCKERBIE BYLINE=ELAINE JOHANSON DATELINE=NEW YORK CONTENT= VOICED AT: INTRO: LIBYA MAY BE ON THE VERGE OF TURNING OVER FOR TRIAL IN THE NETHERLANDS TWO LIBYAN SUSPECTS IN THE BOMBING OF A U-S AIRLINER (PAN AM 103) THAT EXPLODED OVER LOCKERBIE, SCOTLAND IN 1988 -- KILLING 270 PEOPLE. AN AMERICAN JOURNALIST, MILTON VIORST, TRAVELED TO LIBYA RECENTLY AND FOUND A COMPLEX POWER STRUGGLE THAT COULD AFFECT NOT JUST THE LOCKERBIE CASE, BUT LIBYA'S POLITICAL FUTURE AS WELL. CORRESPONDENT ELAINE JOHANSON REPORTS FROM NEW YORK: TEXT: MR. VIORST BELIEVES SUPPORT AND UNDERSTANDING FROM LIBYA'S PAST VICTIMS IN THE WEST -- DESPITE THE HEINOUSNESS OF THE ALLEGED TERRORIST CRIMES -- COULD LEAD TO FULL LIBYAN COOPERATION. HE SAYS LIBYA HAS ALREADY COME A CONSIDERABLE DISTANCE. LIBYAN LEADER MUAMMAR QADDAFI SEEMS CLOSE TO SURRENDERING THE LOCKERBIE SUSPECTS FOR TRIAL OUTSIDE LIBYA. LIBYA HAS REGISTERED SOME LAST-MINUTE RESERVATIONS ABOUT THE TRIAL. JOURNALIST VIORST CONSIDERS THESE MINOR PROBLEMS. HE BELIEVES THEY COULD BE WORKED OUT EASILY, ONCE LIBYA IS ASSURED OF AN END TO INTERNATIONAL SANCTIONS. HE SAYS LIBYA IS TIRED OF BEING A PARIAH. THE UNITED NATIONS WILL LIKELY SUSPEND ITS EMBARGO ON LIBYA IF THE TRIAL GETS UNDERWAY. BUT THE UNILATERAL SANCTIONS IMPOSED BY WASHINGTON MUCH EARLIER -- IN THE MID-1980'S -- FOR LIBYA'S SUPPORT OF TERRORISM ARE CONSIDERED MORE CRITICAL. THEY DENY LIBYA OIL FIELD AND TRANSPORTATION EQUIPMENT IT DESPERATELY NEEDS. MR. VIORST FEARS WASHINGTON WILL NOT GIVE GROUND ON THE SANCTIONS. HE SAYS THAT WOULD BE TOO BAD BECAUSE THE SO-CALLED "GOOD GUYS" IN LIBYA ARE IN THE ASCENDANCY AND NEED SUPPORT: // VIORST ACT // THESE ARE TECHNOCRATIC CIRCLES, BUREAUCRATIC CIRCLES -- PEOPLE WHO REALLY WANT LIBYA TO GET BACK INTO THE REAL WORLD. AND THOSE PEOPLE ARE PUTTING A LOT OF PRESSURE ON QADDAFI AND HE IS BEING SENSITIVE TO THIS. BUT SO FAR THERE HAS BEEN NO CERTAINTY LIBYA WILL ACHIEVE ITS OBJECTIVES EVEN IF THE TRIAL TAKES PLACE. // END ACT // MR. VIORST DISCUSSES HIS MONTH-LONG VISIT TO LIBYA IN THE NEW ISSUE OF THE JOURNAL "FOREIGN AFFAIRS." DURING THAT VISIT, HE MET WITH COLONEL QADDAFI. HE SEES A LEADER -- HONED ON ANTI-IMPERIALIST, ANTI-COLONIAL SENTIMENT -- WHO IS BEING TUGGED IN VARIOUS DIRECTIONS. LIBYA'S PRO-WESTERN SECTORS WANT TO MODERNIZE. MR. VIORST SAYS THE OLD-STYLE REVOLUTIONARIES PREFER DEFIANCE. HE BELIEVES COLONEL QADDAFI COULD USE SOME INCENTIVE: // GADDAFI ACT // HE IS THE ARBITER BETWEEN CONTENDING FORCES WITHIN A VERY COMPLEX POWER STRUGGLE -- SOME OF THEM BEING, IN MY JUDGMENT, OUTLAWS WHO LIKE THE IDEA OF BEING INTERNATIONAL BAD BOYS. BUT I THINK THAT THEY ARE LOSING POWER AT A RATHER SPECTACULAR RATE AND QADDAFI REALLY IS STILL IN A POSITION TO PRESIDE OVER THAT LOSS OF POWER. // END ACT // // BEGIN OPT // HE SAYS THE LIBYANS ALSO NEED TO WAKE UP TO REALITY AND SEE THE WORLD THAT REALLY EXISTS OUT THERE: /// VIORST ACT // OPT /// THEY HAVE GOT TO DO A LITTLE UNDERSTANDING IN KNOWING THAT THEY ARE NOT LIVING IN AN IMPERIAL WORLD ANYMORE, THAT THEY DO HAVE A RIGHT TO MAKE THEIR OWN DECISIONS. BUT I THINK WE ARE AT THE POINT WHERE EACH SIDE HAS GOT TO COME A LITTLE BIT CLOSER. I THINK WE ARE ON THE VERGE OF AN AGREEMENT ON THE LOCKERBIE TRIAL, BUT WE ARE NOT QUITE THERE YET. /// END ACT // END OPT /// THE STATE DEPARTMENT STILL LISTS LIBYA AS A "TERRORIST" STATE. MR. VIORST SEES NO MOVEMENT IN WASHINGTON TO CHANGE THAT. BUT THE WASHINGTON-BASED REPORTER SAYS EVEN THE UNITED STATES ADMITS LIBYAN TERRORISM IS ON THE WANE AND THERE HAVE BEEN NO ALLEGED INCIDENTS IN THE PAST FEW YEARS. // REST OPT // BUT FOR NOW, LIBYA HAS TO DEAL WITH THE LEGAL QUAGMIRE CREATED BY ITS PAST, STARTING WITH THE ALLEGED LIBYAN CONNECTION TO THE 1980'S EXPLOSION AT A BERLIN DISCOTHEQUE. A TRIAL IS CURRENTLY UNDERWAY IN GERMANY, AND A FRENCH COURT NEXT MONTH IS EXPECTED TO HEAR THE CASE AGAINST LIBYANS ACCUSED OF BOMBING A FRENCH AIRLINER OVER WEST AFRICA IN 1989. (SIGNED) NEB/NY/EJ/LSF/RAE 24-Feb-99 11:54 AM EST (1654 UTC) NNNN Source: Voice of America .