DATE=2/24/99
TYPE=BACKGROUND REPORT
NUMBER=5-42696
TITLE=LIBYA/LOCKERBIE
BYLINE=ELAINE JOHANSON
DATELINE=NEW YORK
CONTENT=
VOICED AT:

INTRO:  LIBYA MAY BE ON THE VERGE OF TURNING OVER FOR TRIAL IN 
THE NETHERLANDS TWO LIBYAN SUSPECTS IN THE BOMBING OF A U-S 
AIRLINER (PAN AM 103) THAT EXPLODED OVER LOCKERBIE, SCOTLAND IN 
1988 -- KILLING 270 PEOPLE.  AN AMERICAN JOURNALIST, MILTON 
VIORST, TRAVELED TO LIBYA RECENTLY AND FOUND A COMPLEX POWER 
STRUGGLE THAT COULD AFFECT NOT JUST THE LOCKERBIE CASE, BUT 
LIBYA'S POLITICAL FUTURE AS WELL.  CORRESPONDENT ELAINE JOHANSON 
REPORTS FROM NEW YORK: 

TEXT:  MR. VIORST BELIEVES SUPPORT AND UNDERSTANDING FROM LIBYA'S
PAST VICTIMS IN THE WEST -- DESPITE THE HEINOUSNESS OF THE 
ALLEGED TERRORIST CRIMES -- COULD LEAD TO FULL LIBYAN 
COOPERATION.  HE SAYS LIBYA HAS ALREADY COME A CONSIDERABLE 
DISTANCE.  LIBYAN LEADER MUAMMAR QADDAFI SEEMS CLOSE TO 
SURRENDERING THE LOCKERBIE SUSPECTS FOR TRIAL OUTSIDE LIBYA. 

LIBYA HAS REGISTERED SOME LAST-MINUTE RESERVATIONS ABOUT THE 
TRIAL.  JOURNALIST VIORST CONSIDERS THESE MINOR PROBLEMS.  HE 
BELIEVES THEY COULD BE WORKED OUT EASILY, ONCE LIBYA IS ASSURED 
OF AN END TO INTERNATIONAL SANCTIONS.  HE SAYS LIBYA IS TIRED OF 
BEING A PARIAH. 

THE UNITED NATIONS WILL LIKELY SUSPEND ITS EMBARGO ON LIBYA IF 
THE TRIAL GETS UNDERWAY.  BUT THE UNILATERAL SANCTIONS IMPOSED BY
WASHINGTON MUCH EARLIER -- IN THE MID-1980'S -- FOR LIBYA'S 
SUPPORT OF TERRORISM ARE CONSIDERED MORE CRITICAL.  THEY DENY 
LIBYA OIL FIELD AND TRANSPORTATION EQUIPMENT IT DESPERATELY 
NEEDS.

MR. VIORST FEARS WASHINGTON WILL NOT GIVE GROUND ON THE 
SANCTIONS.  HE SAYS THAT WOULD BE TOO BAD BECAUSE THE SO-CALLED 
"GOOD GUYS" IN LIBYA ARE IN THE ASCENDANCY AND NEED SUPPORT:

                        // VIORST ACT //

         THESE ARE TECHNOCRATIC CIRCLES, BUREAUCRATIC CIRCLES -- 
         PEOPLE WHO REALLY WANT LIBYA TO GET BACK INTO THE REAL 
         WORLD.  AND THOSE PEOPLE ARE PUTTING A LOT OF PRESSURE 
         ON QADDAFI AND HE IS BEING SENSITIVE TO THIS.  BUT SO 
         FAR THERE HAS BEEN NO CERTAINTY LIBYA WILL ACHIEVE ITS 
         OBJECTIVES EVEN IF THE TRIAL TAKES PLACE.

                          // END ACT //

MR. VIORST DISCUSSES HIS MONTH-LONG VISIT TO LIBYA IN THE NEW 
ISSUE OF THE JOURNAL "FOREIGN AFFAIRS."

DURING THAT VISIT, HE MET WITH COLONEL QADDAFI.  HE SEES A LEADER
-- HONED ON ANTI-IMPERIALIST, ANTI-COLONIAL SENTIMENT -- WHO IS 
BEING TUGGED IN VARIOUS DIRECTIONS.  LIBYA'S PRO-WESTERN SECTORS 
WANT TO MODERNIZE.  MR. VIORST SAYS THE OLD-STYLE REVOLUTIONARIES
PREFER DEFIANCE.  HE BELIEVES COLONEL QADDAFI COULD USE SOME 
INCENTIVE:

                        // GADDAFI ACT //

         HE IS THE ARBITER BETWEEN CONTENDING FORCES WITHIN A 
         VERY COMPLEX POWER STRUGGLE -- SOME OF THEM BEING, IN MY
         JUDGMENT, OUTLAWS WHO LIKE THE IDEA OF BEING 
         INTERNATIONAL BAD BOYS.  BUT I THINK THAT THEY ARE 
         LOSING POWER AT A RATHER SPECTACULAR RATE AND QADDAFI 
         REALLY IS STILL IN A POSITION TO PRESIDE OVER THAT LOSS 
         OF POWER.  

                          // END ACT //

// BEGIN OPT //  HE SAYS THE LIBYANS ALSO NEED TO WAKE UP TO 
REALITY AND SEE THE WORLD THAT REALLY EXISTS OUT THERE:

                    /// VIORST ACT // OPT ///

         THEY HAVE GOT TO DO A LITTLE UNDERSTANDING IN KNOWING 
         THAT THEY ARE NOT LIVING IN AN IMPERIAL WORLD ANYMORE, 
         THAT THEY DO HAVE A RIGHT TO MAKE THEIR OWN DECISIONS.  
         BUT I THINK WE ARE AT THE POINT WHERE EACH SIDE HAS GOT 
         TO COME A LITTLE BIT CLOSER.  I THINK WE ARE ON THE 
         VERGE OF AN AGREEMENT ON THE LOCKERBIE TRIAL, BUT WE ARE
         NOT QUITE THERE YET.

                   /// END ACT // END OPT ///

THE STATE DEPARTMENT STILL LISTS LIBYA AS A "TERRORIST" STATE.  
MR. VIORST SEES NO MOVEMENT IN WASHINGTON TO CHANGE THAT.  BUT 
THE WASHINGTON-BASED REPORTER SAYS EVEN THE UNITED STATES ADMITS 
LIBYAN TERRORISM IS ON THE WANE AND THERE HAVE BEEN NO ALLEGED 
INCIDENTS IN THE PAST FEW YEARS.

                         // REST OPT //

BUT FOR NOW, LIBYA HAS TO DEAL WITH THE LEGAL QUAGMIRE CREATED BY
ITS PAST, STARTING WITH THE ALLEGED LIBYAN CONNECTION TO THE 
1980'S EXPLOSION AT A BERLIN DISCOTHEQUE.  A TRIAL IS CURRENTLY 
UNDERWAY IN GERMANY, AND A FRENCH COURT NEXT MONTH IS EXPECTED TO
HEAR THE CASE AGAINST LIBYANS ACCUSED OF BOMBING A FRENCH 
AIRLINER OVER WEST AFRICA IN 1989.   (SIGNED)

NEB/NY/EJ/LSF/RAE 

24-Feb-99 11:54 AM EST (1654 UTC)
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Source: Voice of America
.