DATE=02/06/99 TYPE=ON THE LINE NUMBER=1-00712 SHORT #1 TITLE=THE U.S. AND THE FUTURE OF CUBA EDITOR=OFFICE OF POLICY - 619-0037 CONTENT= INSERTS AVAILABLE IN AUDIO SERVICES. THEME: UP, HOLD UNDER AND FADE ANNCR: ON THE LINE -- A DISCUSSION OF UNITED STATES POLICIES AND CONTEMPORARY ISSUES. THIS WEEK, "THE U.S. AND THE FUTURE OF CUBA." HERE IS YOUR HOST, ---------. HOST: HELLO AND WELCOME TO ON THE LINE. DESPITE THE HIGH EXPECTATIONS RAISED A YEAR AGO WHEN POPE JOHN PAUL THE SECOND VISITED THE ISLAND, THERE HAVE BEEN NO FUNDAMENTAL REFORMS IN CUBA. EARLIER THIS YEAR, PRESIDENT BILL CLINTON ORDERED STEPS TO HELP THE PEOPLE OF CUBA WITHOUT STRENGTHENING THE GOVERNMENT OF FIDEL CASTRO. THESE MEASURES INCLUDE THE RESUMPTION OF DIRECT MAIL SERVICE, THE SALE OF U.S. FOOD TO PRIVATE FARMERS, AND THE EXPANSION OF CHARTER FLIGHTS TO CUBA. MR. CLINTON SAID THESE STEPS "ARE CONSISTENT WITH OUR POLICY OF KEEPING PRESSURE ON THE REGIME FOR DEMOCRATIC CHANGE - THROUGH THE EMBARGO AND VIGOROUS DIPLOMATIC INITIATIVES -- WHILE FINDING WAYS TO REACH OUT TO THE CUBAN PEOPLE THROUGH HUMANITARIAN EFFORTS AND HELP IN DEVELOPING CIVIL SOCIETY." MICHAEL RANNEBERGER IS COORDINATOR FOR CUBAN AFFAIRS AT THE U.S. STATE DEPARTMENT. HE SAYS THAT THIS IS THE RIGHT TIME TO REACH OUT TO THE CUBAN PEOPLE. RANNEBERGER: WHAT WE THINK WE ARE SEEING SINCE POPE JOHN PAUL THE SECOND VISITED CUBA IS A VERY EXCITING DYNAMIC DEVELOPING ON THE GROUND IN CUBA. FOR SOME YEARS NOW, WE HAD SEEN THE BEGINNINGS OF VERY NASCENT INDEPENDENT ACTIVITY, BUT WE THINK THAT SINCE THE VISIT OF THE POPE WE HAVE SEEN AN ACCELERATION OF THAT ACTIVITY AND AN INTENSIFICATION OF IT. THESE MEASURES ARE INTENDED TO TRY TO ENCOURAGE THAT DEVELOPMENT, WHICH IS CRITICAL IF CUBA IS GOING TO HAVE A DEMOCRATIC TRANSITION. HOST: PAULA DOBRIANSKY IS THE WASHINGTON DIRECTOR OF THE COUNCIL ON FOREIGN RELATIONS. SHE SAYS THAT THE NEW MEASURES MAY DO HARM BY SENDING THE WRONG SIGNAL. DOBRIANSKY THE GOAL AND THE OBJECTIVE OF TRYING TO FURTHER CIVIL SOCIETY IS A GOOD ONE AND ONE THAT WE SHOULD WORK TOWARDS. HOWEVER, WHAT HAS BEEN PROBLEMATIC WITH THE ADMINISTRATION'S POSITION IS IT HAS BEEN READ ON THE PART OF SOME IN THE COMMUNITY AND BY SOME FOREIGN POLICY EXPERTS AS -- THAT THIS IS AN ATTEMPT TO ALTER OUR POSITION VIS-A-VIS CUBA. AND IT'S A MATTER OF TIME WHEN THE EMBARGO WOULD BE LIFTED. AND FROM THAT STANDPOINT I THINK THAT KIND OF SIGNAL SHOULD NOT BE THE ONE THAT SHOULD BE SENT AT THIS TIME BECAUSE THERE HAVE BEEN NO FUNDAMENTAL REFORMS UNDERTAKEN IN CUBA. HOST: MICHAEL RANNEBERGER SAYS THAT THE EMBARGO WILL REMAIN IN PLACE BECAUSE ENGAGEMENT WITH THE CASTRO REGIME DOES NOT WORK. RANNEBERGER: THERE HAS BEEN NO EMBARGO FROM THE REST OF THE WORLD ON CUBA FOR FORTY YEARS. THAT ENGAGEMENT WITH CUBA HAS FAILED TO PRODUCE ANY CHANGE WHATSOEVER -- NOT EVEN NOT JUST POLITICAL REFORM, IT HASN'T EVEN TRIGGERED SERIOUS ECONOMIC REFORMS IN THE WAY THAT THERE HAVE BEEN SERIOUS ECONOMIC REFORMS IN CHINA. WE BELIEVE THAT LIFTING THE EMBARGO UNILATERALLY NOT ONLY WOULD NOT PROMOTE FUNDAMENTAL CHANGE IN CUBA, BUT IT COULD WELL STRENGTHEN THE HAND OF THE REGIME AND PROLONG THE AGONY OF THE CUBAN PEOPLE BEYOND WHAT IT WILL ALREADY BE. OUR POSITION REMAINS QUITE FIRM, WHICH IS THE EMBARGO WILL ONLY BE LIFTED OR MODIFIED SIGNIFICANTLY IF THERE IS FUNDAMENTAL DEMOCRATIC CHANGE AND RESPECT FOR HUMAN RIGHTS IN CUBA. HOST: MICHAEL RANNEBERGER, COORDINATOR FOR CUBAN AFFAIRS AT THE U.S. STATE DEPARTMENT, SAYS THAT A TRANSITION IN CUBA IS INEVITABLE. THE U.S. WANTS IT TO BE PEACEFUL AND DEMOCRATIC. FOR ON THE LINE, THIS IS --------. ANNCR: YOU'VE BEEN LISTENING TO "ON THE LINE" -- A DISCUSSION OF UNITED STATES POLICIES AND CONTEMPORARY ISSUES. THIS IS --------. 05-Feb-99 10:09 AM EST (1509 UTC) NNNN Source: Voice of America .