20 January 1999
(U.S. says increased sanctions against Libya are likely) (4020) Washington -- Deputy Assistant Secretary for Near Eastern Affairs Ronald Newman says the United States is prepared to increase sanctions against Libya because it has not responded to a proposal on the trial for two Libyans suspected of blowing up a Pan American flight over Scotland 10 years ago. Speaking on the Voice of America's "On The Line" broadcast January 16, Newman said six months had passed since the U.S. first made an offer to Libyan Leader Moammar Gadhafi that would allow the suspects to be tried in The Hague by Scottish judges. In addition, Newman said it's been about two months since "all substantive discussions" between Libyan attorneys and the U.N.'s legal advisor were completed to clarify points they wanted to know about. Also, U.N. Secretary General Kofi Annan undertook a mission to Libya with hopes of achieving "significant results" in the case, Newman said. "But as of now, Libya has not made the decision to turn over the suspects as it's required to do," Newman said. "It has not clearly said it would not, but time is passing." Joining Newman on the VOA program was Patrick Clawson, a research director at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy. Asked about his view of the U.S. offer, considering the fact that the idea for a trial in The Hague with Scottish judges was proposed by Libya, Clawson said it's not clear to him "whether Libya was ever serious about the offer." "I think they (the Libyans) won a lot of propaganda points, especially in Africa, where many governments have been impressed by what seemed to them a reasonable offer," Clawson said. "The difficulty now that Gadhafi faces is that the United States and Britain accepted his offer. And so he's posing new conditions and some of the conditions are getting to be truly bizarre." Said Newman: "We took Gadhafi up on one of the compromise proposals, which he had said he would accept. And we said, all right, you can do that. You can bring them out. The trial will be in The Hague. The motivation is simply to get justice for the families, to get all the evidence out and to move this matter forward." However, Newman said, "this can't go on forever with him (Gadhafi) stalling and the international community not stepping up to its responsibilities." Since the bombing of Pan Am flight 103 in December 1988 that killed 270 people, the U.N. Security Council has passed a number of resolutions demanding that Libya cooperate in the investigation of that bombing, and in the terrorist bombing of a French UTA flight in which another 170 people died. The resolutions also imposed sanctions on Libya that prohibited direct flights to and from the country, and on oil equipment that can be sold to Libya. According to Clawson, those sanctions have "had considerable effect in the last six years" on Libya's economy at a time when it is facing "very serious troubles" because of declining oil prices. Last year, for example, Libya earned six billion dollars from oil exports, down from nine billion the year before, Clawson said. In addition to the economic effects, Clawson said the sanctions have also contributed to Libya's isolation in the Arab world. "For instance, the tone of the Egyptian press is quite harsh toward Mr. Gadhafi ... he has been upset at the way the Arab leaders and the Arab popular press have reacted," Clawson said. At a memorial service last month to honor the victims of Pan Am 103, President Clinton said that if Libya does not respond to the U.S. proposal for a trial in The Hague, it will soon take steps to increase sanctions against Libya. "It seems to us a pretty reasonable sort of equation that the United Nations, acting as a whole, has said these people should be sent out for trial, and they've put on sanctions," Newman said. "If the Libyans, by their refusal to send the suspects for a trial that all the international bodies have said is fair, make it clear that they are not abiding, then I think it is incumbent on the international community to take some further steps," Newman continued. "Now that will have to be discussed as to what those might be. But it's certainly a position that we're taking that this can't go on forever. ..." Following is the transcript of the broadcast: (Begin Transcript) VOA Program: On The Line Bringing Libyan Terrorists to Justice Announcer: On The Line, a discussion of United States policies and contemporary issues. This week, "Bringing Libyan Terrorists to Justice." Here is your host, Robert Reilly. Host: Hello and welcome to On The Line. On December 21, 1988, a bomb exploded aboard Pan American Flight 103, 31,000 feet above the village of Lockerbie, Scotland. Two-hundred seventy men, women and children from 21 nations lost their lives, including nearly 200 Americans. At a recent memorial service, President Bill Clinton said that the Lockerbie deaths "cannot be considered a mere misfortune; this was deliberate murder. And while all of us have to strive for reconciliation in our hearts, we must also pursue justice and accountability." The Libyans suspected of blowing up Pan American Flight 103 remain at large. Despite the U.S. and British offer to have the trial held in the Netherlands before a Scottish court, Libya's Dictator Moammar Gadhafi has refused to turn over the suspects for trial. Joining me today to discuss Libyan terrorism and U.S. policy are two experts. Ronald Newmann is Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for Near Eastern Affairs. And Patrick Clawson is director of research at the Washington Institute for Near East policy. Welcome to the program. Mr. Newmann, perhaps we could begin by your giving us an update on exactly where in the procedure in pursuing justice against the two suspects of the Pan Am 103 bombing we stand today? And those gentlemen are Lamin Fhimah and Abdal Basit Al Magrahi. Newmann: They are still in Libya. There have been a variety of meetings that the UN legal advisor has held to clarify points the lawyers for the Libyans wanted to know about. There has been a mission of the [UN] Secretary General, which he undertook hoping that he would have some significant results. But as of now, Libya has not made the decision to turn over the suspects as it's required to do. It has not clearly said it would not, but time is passing. It's now been six months since we first made the offer, nearly two months since all the substantive discussions appeared to be complete, and the Libyans still have not given an answer. Host: And are there substantive objections that they have raised in these meetings, saying you have to do "A" before we do "B"? Newmann: Not in that nature. The Libyans have repeatedly raised two questions, one of which is whether the people, if convicted, would have to serve their sentences in Scotland. It's sort of an odd request, it seems to us. They want them to serve their sentences in Libya. We think it's an odd request for a country which maintains the people are innocent: first of all, to be extremely worried already about where they will serve their sentences; and an even odder one to suggest that if they are convicted in Scotland, they ought to serve their sentences right back home in Libya. Host: Patrick Clawson, this was an initiative from Libya. They're the ones who came up with this idea, because the United States and Great Britain had insisted over the years that we would only accept a trial in the United States or Great Britain. It was Libya's idea: no, this should be held in the Hague with Scottish judges. There was quite a bit of international pressure to accede to this agreement. Great Britain and the United States did accede, and now, Libya is stalling. What's going on? Clawson: It's not apparent whether Libya was ever serious about the offer. They may have been interested in winning propaganda points. Host: And did they? Clawson: I think they won a lot of propaganda points, especially in Africa, where many governments have been very impressed by what seemed to them a reasonable offer. The difficulty now that Gadhafi faces is that the United States and Britain accepted his offer. And so he's posing new conditions and some of the conditions are getting to be truly bizarre. Recently, for instance, the Libyan government requested that the United States extradite to Libya nine people who, it said, were war criminals because of what they had done in planning the bombing of Libya in 1986, in response to another terrorist activity of the Libyans. Host: Let me ask you, Mr. Newmann, since you are in charge of [U.S.] policy in that part of the world, why did the United States accept the Libyan proposal to move the trial to the Hague? Newmann: The first reason was the we had gone ten years since the bombing. The families wanted justice and the people weren't happy. The second reason was that there was pressure on the sanctions. So we said, look, what we have wanted all along is a trial in a Scottish Court or an American Court. We don't really care if that trial takes place in another country, as long as it is the same court sitting, and that's the offer we made. We took Gadhafi up on one of the compromise proposals which he had said he would accept. And we said all right, you can do that. You can bring them out. The trial will be in the Hague. The motivation is simply to get justice for the families, to get all the evidence out and to move this matter forward. Host: There have been UN Security Council Resolutions for some time demanding that: Libya cooperate in the investigations not only of Pan Am 103, but the French UTA Flight that was bombed in which another 170 plus people lost their lives; compensation to families of the victims; and a cessation of Libyan terrorist activity. How old are those UN Resolutions and have they had any effect? Clawson: They've had considerable effect in the last six years since the first resolutions. For one thing, the isolation of the Libyan Government and the high price that they've had to pay because of the restrictions on the flights to Libya, as well as the restrictions on the oil equipment that can be sold to Libya -- all of this has affected Libya's economy rather badly at a time when they're facing very serious troubles because of the declining oil prices. This last year, they only made six billion dollars from oil exports, down from nine billion the year before. So Gadhafi is hurting on lots of fronts and these UN Resolutions add to the pain he is feeling. Host: That's a particularly interesting point, Mr. Newmann, because President Clinton at the memorial service made it pretty clear that if Libya did not respond to this proposal for this trial in the Hague, the United States would move forthwith, perhaps as soon as February to increase the sanctions against Libya. And perhaps those sanctions would affect their ability to sell oil in the world. Is that what you expect to happen? Is that what the United States is going to attempt to do? Newmann: It seems to us a pretty reasonable sort of equation that the United Nations acting as a whole has said these people should be sent out for trial and they've put on sanctions. Libya said, well, we would do it if it was a compromise. We've now taken them up on that. If the Libyans, by their refusal to send the suspects for a trial that all the international bodies has said is fair, make it clear that they are not abiding, then I think it is incumbent on the international community to take some further steps. Now that will have to be discussed as to what those might be. But it's certainly a position that we're taking that this can't go on forever with him stalling and the international community not stepping up to its responsibilities. Host: Patrick Clawson, as you said, Libya did achieve some propaganda points when they first floated this proposal, because I recall early last summer the organization of African Unity made a statement that unless Great Britain and the United States agreed to the trial proposal in the Netherlands, the OAU would encourage member states not to support the UN sanctions. Now that the United States and Britain have agreed to this, has that changed the picture of support in Africa and other Arab countries? Clawson: In the Arab world, Mr. Gadhafi has been really quite isolated. And so, for instance, the tone of the Egyptian press is quite harsh towards Mr. Gadhafi. Mr. Gadhafi has been upset at the way the Arab leaders and the Arab popular press has reacted. And he has really turned more towards Africa, where there has been more sympathy for his cause. And he has increased the Libyan presence in Africa, for instance, offering to play a role in the mediation of the Congo Civil War. I think it's fair to say that Mr. Gadhafi still has a certain amount of success in Africa with his arguments that the United States and Britain are being unfair, arguments which I think are really quite wrong. Host: Yes. Mr. Newmann, Mr. Clawson said that Libya has been hurt by the sanctions, which, to my knowledge, include only the prohibition of the sale of oil drilling equipment and of landing rights for international flights. Have those sanctions been observed? Are any of our allies breaking those sanctions and sneaking equipment in there? Have they hurt, and how vulnerable do you think the Gadhafi regime is today? Should further sanctions be put in place because of the precipitous decline in the price of oil that Patrick Clawson mentioned? Newmann: I think the Libyans themselves have made it clear the sanctions hurt by the amount of complaining they do about them. And I think there's a hurt which is not economic but a hurt to their pride. You cannot fly in and out of Libya. You can't get on an airplane and go to Tripoli. Gadhafi is not accepted arriving in other international capitals if he flies from Tripoli directly. That is also a blow. That said, it's been ten years and they have not turned over the suspects. That suggests that the level of pain is not so high that they have not felt they had a choice. They could certainly be damaged more by a variety of measures, but that would have to be discussed in the [UN] security council. Host: How are the French handling their procedures against the suspected Libyan terrorists who blew up the UTA Flight over Africa? I believe one of the people the French Court indicted was indeed Momammar Gadhafi's brother-in-law, who is one of the chiefs of their intelligence services. Clawson: The French position has varied over time and also the enthusiasm the French Government has had for pursuing the matter has varied. I think it's only fair to say that now France doesn't seem to be as eager to insist on justice as it once was or as Britain and the United States are, and that France seems to be more open to some kind of a compromise to provide an opportunity for French commercial interests in Libya to advance. Host: If that's the case, how do you expect other Western European countries that have such commercial interests to line up with us? Newmann: I think it is clear that Western Europeans and many others have interests in Libya. At the same time, they also have an interest in the United Nations. They have an interest in sanctions being fulfilled. The French, for instance, have been very careful. We've worked with them very closely to ensure that our initiative would also include the fact that the Libyans have to give satisfaction in the trial of the bombers of the UTA plane. And that has been observed in our proposal. And the French and others are working with us. How far they will go, I don't know. We're not at that point yet where we've quite said it's impossible that these people will come out. I think we're getting very close to that. We cannot be expected to leave this initiative on the table indefinitely, having made a substantial political step ourselves, just to sit there smiling pleasantly while Gadhafi does nothing. So if he does nothing, then I think we have to try. How far the Europeans will go, how far others will go, that remains to be seen. But I think there is at least an awareness that we have taken advice given to us by our Arab friends, by Europeans, by Africans that we should make a gesture of compromise. We took that advice. We made that gesture. Now if Gadhafi doesn't follow through, I think those friends who gave us the advice have some responsibility on their own part to help bolster us. And in fact, we are getting already some bolstering in the many states which have urged Libya to accept this and go forward with it. And that's been the advice of virtually every Arab leader. And I think that is also significant. Host: Libya's General People's Congress has apparently endorsed this proposal. Does that have any significance? Clawson: It has some significance. Gadhafi likes to bring difficult decisions in front of a body like this. And the decision to hand these people over will be very difficult in domestic politics, because they come from important groups inside Libya and Gadhafi has to worry that if they were handed over to a trial in the Hague that they might start providing information about other activities that the Libyan Government has been involved in, which could be very embarrassing and damaging for his reputation. Host: Not only other activities, Mr. Clawson, what if Abdel Basit Al Magrahi and Lamin Fhimah point the finger upward and say we were carrying out orders from the head of state? Clawson: I think we would have to assume that that would be a strong temptation on their part to defend themselves in that way. Host: Do you indeed, in your own analysis, think that the operation was ordered by Gadhafi? Clawson: I don't think there's any question about that. And there's no question that these individuals know about other terrorist activities the Libyan Government has been involved in. So, before Gadhafi hands them over, he would need to carefully construct some incentives for them to keep their mouths shut about these other activities. And that's going to be tricky for him to do. Host: In other words, it would be your expectation that he is not going to turn over these two suspects. Clawson: I would be quite surprised if he turned them over. It would be difficult domestically. It would be a dangerous gamble because they might decide to talk. And also, it's just not his style. He's very suspicious about the United States and Britain and thinks that we would have ways of getting information out of these people or using the situation to our advantage against him. Host: I know that would be a harder question for you to respond to, Mr. Newmann, and so I won't ask you. But I will ask you this; Libya is still listed by the U.S. State Department as a state sponsor of terrorism. Yet there aren't really any recent acts that we can hold Libya responsible for, as horrible as these two bombings ten years ago were. Or is there any evidence of continuing terrorist activity on the part of Libya? Newmann: I'll start off with, I think you'll understand, that I don't want to get too much into intelligence information, things that are not on the public record. First of all, you have the fact that Libya continues to give support to people who killed 270 people, and to hide them out Libya. That in our view, first of all is already continuing support to terrorism. Now in addition, the Security Council Resolution lays down a very precise set of steps that Libya has to go through to get out of the bind that it's in. And, in addition to the general statement about ceasing support for terrorism, it has to provide cooperation at the trial that would be a specific sign that it's moving away from the support for terrorism. It has to meet as we said, the French requirements for the UTA. That's another area of support for terrorism. So, there are a number of specific steps that Libya can take, that it is encouraged to take under the UN resolutions, which will demonstrate very clearly that it's moving away from terrorism and that one does not have to remain in a sort of gray world of which groups find sanctuary there or don't. Host: Do you want to take a shot at answering that same question, Mr. Clawson? Clawson: It's pretty clear that Libyan involvement in terrorist activities has been less in this decade than it was in the 1980s. The question is why. And part of the reason is probably because of the firm response by the United States and Britain and, to a lesser extent, France. It's quite possible that if there hadn't been the firm response by the Western powers that Mr. Gadhafi would continue with his terrorist activities. And furthermore, if he hadn't run his country's economy into such a serious crisis, it's also possible that he would be engaged in more adventurism abroad. Host: Do you think he's vulnerable? Clawson: There's no question that there's an awful lot of problems in Libyan society and a lot of people there who blame him. Now some of those people are not much nicer than he is. For instance, there's some radical Islamic opposition groups there that frankly are every bit as opposed to the West as Mr. Gadhafi. But there are also some who are interested in seeing Libya move in more liberal directions. They're not likely to take power soon. If Mr. Gadhafi were to run into very serious difficulties, we might see some chaos and disorder in the country. Host: One last subject that you might both be able to make a brief comment on, and that is other attention has been drawn toward Libya because of its, some say, continuing effort to obtain weapons of mass destruction, including curious constructions underneath the desert that were suspected as chemical weapons plants. Can you comment on Libya's activity in that area? Newmann: From time to time, Libya does go back into the desert or go around and work on its facilities. We have periodically surfaced something fairly specific about those, based on quite solid intelligence. Libya's been hard-pressed to prove that it was not doing the things that it's accused of. It's very difficult to get a precise read, particularly when you're dealing with things like chemicals where this same factory can produce fertilizers or chemical weapons with fairly minor retooling. But as long as the Libyans insist that these facilities have to remain hidden and secret, then I think a level of suspicion is going to remain. Host: I'm afraid that's all the time we have this week. I'd like to thank our guests -- Ronald Newmann, Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for Near Eastern Affairs and Patrick Clawson from the Washington Institute for Near East Policy -- for joining me to discuss Libyan Terrorism and U.S. Policy. This is Robert Reilly for on the line. (End transcript)