DATE=11/19/98
TYPE=CORRESPONDENT REPORT
NUMBER=2-241918
TITLE=US/IRAQI OPPOSITION (L-ONLY)
BYLINE=NICK SIMEONE
DATELINE=WASHINGTON 
CONTENT=
VOICED AT: 

INTRO:  THE UNITED STATES IS STEPPING UP ITS CONTACTS WITH IRAQI 
OPPOSITION GROUPS, JUST DAYS AFTER PRESIDENT CLINTON ALL BUT 
CALLED FOR THE OVERTHROW OF PRESIDENT SADDAM HUSSEIN.  U-S 
OFFICIALS SAY THEY WANT TO ENCOURAGE AN EFFECTIVE AND UNIFIED 
OPPOSITION TO BAGHDAD.  BUT ANALYSTS ARE QUESTIONING HOW 
EFFECTIVE THE ADMINISTRATION'S APPROACH WILL BE.  MORE FROM 
CORRESPONDENT NICK SIMEONE.

TEXT:   MARTIN INDYK, THE TOP AMERICAN DIPLOMAT FOR THE MIDDLE 
EAST, MET WEDNESDAY WITH AHMED CHALABI, THE LEADER OF THE IRAQI 
NATIONAL CONGRESS.  HE HEADS AN UMBRELLA GROUP OF SADDAM HUSSEIN 
OPPONENTS WHICH SUCCESSFULLY LOBBIED THE U-S CONGRESS FOR NEARLY 
100-MILLION DOLLARS IN MILITARY ASSISTANCE TO GROUPS ALLIED 
AGAINST BAGHDAD.  NOW IT IS UP TO THE WHITE HOUSE TO DECIDE WHICH
GROUPS GET THAT MONEY AND HOW IT WILL BE SPENT.  

STATE DEPARTMENT SPOKESMAN JAMES RUBIN ADMITS SUCH DECISIONS ARE 
STILL A LONG WAY OFF.

                        /// RUBIN ACT ///

         WE ARE IN CONTACT WITH A BROAD ARRAY OF IRAQI OPPOSITION
         GROUPS ACROSS THE POLITICAL SPECTRUM -- INCLUDING KURDS,
         SUNNI, SHIA -- IN AN EFFORT TO BUILD A STRONG AND UNITED
         AND EFFECTIVE OPPOSITION.  THIS IS GOING TO TAKE TIME 
         AND WE DON'T EXPECT TO HAVE RESULTS OVERNIGHT.

                         /// END ACT ///

IRAQI OPPOSITION GROUPS HAVE LONG BEEN HAMPERED BY IN-FIGHTING 
AND A LACK OF MUTUAL TRUST, PERHAPS DRIVEN BY WELL-FOUNDED FEARS 
OF GOVERNMENT INFILTRATION.  TWO YEARS AGO, MORE THAN 100 IRAQI 
DISSIDENTS OPERATING IN THE PROTECTED NORTH WERE EXECUTED BY 
IRAQI AUTHORITIES AFTER BAGHDAD LEARNED THEY WERE BACKED BY THE 
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY.  

JAMES WOOLSEY, WHO SERVED AS PRESIDENT CLINTON'S FIRST C-I-A 
DIRECTOR, IS NOW A CRITIC OF THE ADMINISTRATION'S POLICY TOWARD 
IRAQ. 

                       /// WOOLSEY ACT ///

         IT IS  NOT  A GOOD IDEA TO SIMPLY SPEND A LITTLE BIT OF 
         MONEY ON OPPOSITION GROUPS.  IT NEEDS TO BE PART OF AN 
         OVERALL STRATEGY.   IF THEY HAD  NOT  CANCELLED THE 
         (MILITARY) STRIKE FOR LAST SATURDAY -- SO THEY HAD THE 
         OPPORTUNITY TO TAKE OUT THE AIR DEFENSES IN THE CENTRAL 
         PART OF THE COUNTRY -- THEN THEY COULD HAVE ESTABLISHED 
         A NO-FLY ZONE OVER THE WHOLE COUNTRY.  THAT IS SOMETHING
         THAT [GENERAL NORMAN] SCHWARZKOPF SAID IN 1991 HE HAD 
         BEEN SNOOKERED [FOOLED] OUT OF DOING BY SADDAM'S 
         MILITARY.  BUT THAT WAS SEVEN-AND-A-HALF YEARS AGO AND I
         THINK IT'S LONG PAST TIME TO GET UN-SNOOKERED. 

                         /// END ACT ///

WITHOUT SUCH MOVES, MR. WOOLSEY SAYS, ANY OUTSIDE EFFORT TO 
CREATE AN EFFECTIVE IRAQI OPPOSITION WILL LIKELY FAIL, SINCE 
WHATEVER ALLIANCE TAKES SHAPE WILL BE OUT-GUNNED BY A GOVERNMENT 
THAT HAS SHOWN  NO  HESITATION IN CRUSHING DISSENT.  (SIGNED)

NEB/NJS/WTW

19-Nov-98 5:45 PM EST (2245 UTC)
NNNN

Source: Voice of America
.