DATE=10/20/98 TYPE=BACKGROUND REPORT NUMBER=5-41636 TITLE=IRAQ / U-S BYLINE=DOUGLAS ROBERTS DATELINE=WASHINGTON CONTENT= VOICED AT: INTRO: OPPONENTS OF IRAQ'S PRESIDENT SADDAM HUSSEIN ARE WELCOMING A MOVE BY THE U-S CONGRESS, AUTHORIZING MILITARY AID TO HELP OUST THE IRAQI LEADER. BUT THE CONGRESSIONAL ACTION HAS PROMPTED RENEWED BICKERING WITHIN THE OPPOSITION MOVEMENT, AND IT HAS BEEN ROUNDLY CRITICIZED BY MANY U-S ANALYSTS. V-O-A'S DOUGLAS ROBERTS FILED THIS BACKGROUND REPORT. TEXT: THE BILL, KNOWN AS THE IRAQ LIBERATION ACT, WON OVERWHELMING APPROVAL FROM BOTH HOUSES OF CONGRESS EARLIER THIS MONTH. IT AUTHORIZES THE CLINTON ADMINISTRATION TO SPEND UP TO 97-MILLION DOLLARS TO EQUIP AND TRAIN OPPONENTS OF SADDAM HUSSEIN. /// OPT /// ADDITIONAL FUNDING IS AUTHORIZED FOR A NEWLY-CREATED U-S BROADCAST SERVICE KNOWN AS RADIO FREE IRAQ, AND FOR ATTEMPTS TO PROSECUTE SADDAM FOR WAR CRIMES. /// END OPT /// THE LEGISLATION DOES NOT SPECIFY WHICH IRAQI OPPOSITION GROUPS SHOULD RECEIVE THE MILITARY AID. BUT REPUBLICAN SPONSORS OF THE BILL INDICATED A PREFERENCE FOR THE IRAQI NATIONAL CONGRESS -- THE I-N-C -- LED BY AHMED CHALABI, A U-S EDUCATED MATHEMATICIAN, AND A VETERAN CAMPAIGNER AGAINST THE BAGHDAD GOVERNMENT. MR. CHALABI'S SPOKESMAN IN WASHINGTON -- NIBRAZ KAZIMI -- SAYS THE I-N-C ENTHUSIASTICALLY WELCOMES THE CONGRESSIONAL MOVE, AND IS PREPARED TO MAKE GOOD USE OF THE PROPOSED MILITARY AID. ///KAZIMI ACT/// WELL, IT SHOULD BE USED TO TRAIN, EQUIP AND SUPPLY IRAQI FREEDOM FIGHTERS THAT WILL BE SENT INTO IRAQI TERRITORY TO ESTABLISH THEMSELVES OVER THERE AND CREATE A SAFE HAVEN, REFUGE, FOR DESERTING UNITS (OF THE IRAQI ARMY) AND CIVILIANS TO JOIN THEM THERE AND, ONCE AGAIN, TRAIN, EQUIP AND SUPPLY AND BEGIN THE PROCESS OF LIBERATING IRAQ. ///END ACT/// MR. KAZIMI ACKNOWLEDGES THAT THE I-N-C HAS NO MILITARY WING AT PRESENT. BUT HE SAYS THERE IS NO SHORTAGE OF VOLUNTEERS, ADDING THAT THE ORGANIZATION HAS TENS OF THOUSANDS OF SUPPORTERS AND SYMPATHIZERS INSIDE IRAQ. OTHER IRAQI OPPOSITION GROUPS AND SOME INDEPENDENT ANALYSTS CONTEST THAT CLAIM. MR. CHALABI HAS A ROLE TO PLAY, SAYS AN OFFICIAL OF A RIVAL OPPOSITION GROUP, BUT HE HAS NO FOLLOWING INSIDE IRAQ, AND CANNOT BE RECOGNIZED AS THE OVER-ALL LEADER OF THE OPPOSITION. U-S MILITARY AID, SAYS THIS OFFICIAL, SHOULD GO TO THOSE FORCES THAT REALLY MATTER, NOT TO MAINTAIN WHAT HE DESCRIBED AS LUXURIOUS OFFICES FOR OPPOSITION LEADERS IN EXILE. U-S ANALYSTS, LIKE PROFESSOR MICHAEL GUNTER OF TENNESSEE TECH UNIVERSITY, SAY THE IRAQI OPPOSITION CAN ONLY BE EFFECTIVE IF IT INCLUDES THE TWO KURDISH GUERRILLA GROUPS THAT TOGETHER CONTROL NORTHERN IRAQ, AS WELL AS THE SHIITE MUSLIM SUPREME COUNCIL FOR THE ISLAMIC REVOLUTION IN IRAQ, BASED IN TEHRAN AND SUPPORTED BY THE IRANIAN GOVERNMENT. /// OPT /// THE TWO KURDISH FACTIONS WERE RECENTLY RECONCILED UNDER U-S AUSPICES AFTER YEARS OF OPEN CONFLICT. BUT BOTH CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN A DIALOGUE WITH THE BAGHDAD GOVERNMENT, AND PROFESSOR GUNTER SAYS BOTH ARE CLEARLY RELUCTANT TO RE-FORGE OPERATIONAL LINKS WITH THE OTHER OPPOSITION GROUPS. ///GUNTER ACT/// /// OPT ACT /// AND THE KURDS ARE NOT PART OF THE OPPOSITION RIGHT NOW, SO WHAT IS THE OPPOSITION ARE SOME VERY WEAK, EXILED GROUPS IN LONDON AND A FEW OTHER PLACES, WHICH HAVE ALMOST NO VIABILITY OR CONNECTION WITH THE HOMELAND. ///END ACT/// /// END OPT /// PROFESSOR GUNTER BELIEVES THE OPPOSITION PRESENTS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF A CREDIBLE THREAT TO SADDAM HUSSEIN'S HOLD ON POWER. ///GUNTER ACT/// I THINK SADDAM HAS PROVEN THAT HE CAN LAST FOR A LONG TIME. THAT DOES NOT MEAN THAT HE WILL NOT BE KNOCKED OFF (KILLED) TOMORROW BUT I DO NOT SEE THAT AS IMMINENT. /// OPT /// I HAVE ALWAYS THOUGHT THAT SOMEBODY WHO HAS A GRUDGE AGAINST HIM WILL MAYBE SOME DAY SHOOT HIM BETWEEN THE EYES, BUT OUTSIDE OF THAT I DO NOT SEE ANYTHING. /// END OPT /// ///END ACT/// BUT NIBRAS KAZIMI OF THE I-N-C INSISTS THAT THE OPPOSITION DOES REPRESENT A REAL THREAT TO BAGHDAD. AND SADDAM'S REACTION TO THE U-S CONGRESSIONAL ACTION, HE ADDS, DEMONSTRATES THE IRAQI LEADER'S CONCERN. ///KAZIMI ACT//// FOR (OVER) THE LAST WEEK, SADDAM HAS HAD THREE MEETINGS WITH THE SUPREME REVOLUTIONARY COMMAND COUNCIL, WHICH IS THE HIGHEST AUTHORITY IN IRAQ, TO DISCUSS WAYS OF COUNTERING THIS MEASURE FROM NOW, EVEN BEFORE THE (U-S) ADMINISTRATION HAS HAD THE TIME TO LOOK IT OVER, AND START TAKING EXTRAORDINARY MEASURES TO STOP IT FROM HAPPENING. ///END ACT/// THE CLINTON ADMINISTRATION HAS NOT YET DECIDED HOW TO ALLOCATE THE FUNDS, AUTHORIZED BY THE IRAQ LIBERATION ACT. THE STATE DEPARTMENT SAYS IT IS WORKING ON AN ELABORATE SPENDING PROGRAM DESIGNED TO FOSTER MAXIMUM COOPERATION AMONG THE VARIOUS OPPOSITION GROUPS AND DEMONSTRATE THAT THEY CONSTITUTE A VIABLE DEMOCRATIC ALTERNATIVE TO SADDAM HUSSEIN'S RULE. BUT CRITICS, LIKE MICHAEL GUNTER, ARGUE THAT NEITHER CONGRESS NOR THE ADMINISTRATION IS REALLY SERIOUS ABOUT AIDING THE OPPOSITION FORCES. IT'S JUST POLITICS, SAYS PROFESSOR GUNTER, WITH EACH SIDE (CONGRESS AND THE ADMINISTRATION) TRYING TO DEMONSTRATE THAT IT IS TOUGHER ON THE IRAQI LEADER. /// REMAINDER OPT /// ///GUNTER ACT/// I WISH IT WERE REALLY SIGNIFICANT, BUT FOR THE PAST FIVE OR SIX YEARS, THE UNITED STATES HAS REALLY NOT BEEN SERIOUS ABOUT BACKING THE OPPOSITION AND I DO NOT THINK THE UNITED STATES IS SERIOUS NOW. ///END ACT/// MANY U-S ANALYSTS SHARE THAT ASSESSMENT.IN AN EDITORIAL THIS WEEK, THE NEW YORK TIMES SAID CONGRESS' DESIRE TO HASTEN THE REMOVAL OF SADDAM HUSSEIN IS UNDERSTANDABLE, BUT THROWING MONEY AND WEAPONS AT WHAT IT TERMS IRAQ'S FEEBLE AND FRACTIOUS OPPOSITION WILL NOT ACHIEVE THE INTENDED RESULTS. THE NEWSPAPER SAYS THE UNITED STATES SHOULD CONCENTRATE ON EFFORTS TO PREVENT IRAQ FROM REBUILDING ITS ARSENAL OF BIOLOGICAL AND CHEMICAL WEAPONS. AND IT URGES THE WHITE HOUSE TO FIRMLY RESIST ANY TEMPTATION TO ARM WHAT IT CALLS THE DISCREDITED ORGANIZATIONS THAT MAKE UP THE IRAQI OPPOSITION. (SIGNED) NEB/DB/GE 20-Oct-98 12:49 PM EDT (1649 UTC) NNNN Source: Voice of America .