DATE=10/20/98 TYPE=CORRESPONDENT REPORT NUMBER=2-240492 TITLE=IRAQI OPPOSITION (L-ONLY) BYLINE=JIM RANDLE DATELINE=PENTAGON CONTENT= VOICED AT: INTRO: A NEW PLAN APPROVED BY THE U-S CONGRESS TO FINANCE IRAQI OPPOSITION GROUPS IS DRAWING BOTH PRAISE AND CRITICISM IN WASHINGTON. SUPPORTERS WANT TO USE 97 MILLION DOLLARS TO FINANCE A REBEL ARMY TO HELP TOPPLE IRAQI LEADER SADDAM HUSSEIN. PENTAGON OFFICIALS SAY PRESIDENT CLINTON PROBABLY WILL SIGN THE "IRAQ LIBERATION ACT." BUT V-O-A'S JIM RANDLE REPORTS, THERE ARE MANY QUESTIONS ABOUT HOW AND WHEN THE MONEY WILL BE SPENT. TEXT: SENATE MAJORITY LEADER TRENT LOTT STRONGLY SUPPORTS THE PLAN, SAYING IT IS TIME FOR WASHINGTON TO SEND "DIRECT AND OVERT" MILITARY ASSISTANCE TO IRAQI OPPOSITION GROUPS TRYING TO REMOVE SADDAM HUSSEIN. SENATOR LOTT SAYS IT IS TIME TO FOCUS U-S POLICY ON CHANGING THE MAN IN CHARGE IN BAGHDAD, RATHER THAN TRYING TO "CONTAIN" HIS ACTIONS WITH MILITARY THREATS AND ECONOMIC SANCTIONS. SENATOR LOTT SAYS CURRENT POLICY HAS NOT BEEN EFFECTIVE, AND THE INTERNATIONAL CONSENSUS FOR SANCTIONS IS ERODING. THE NEW PLAN ENVISIONS AN OPPOSITION ARMY OF IRAQIS TRAINED AND EQUIPPED BY WASHINGTON. SENATOR LOTT TOLD SENATE COLLEAGUES, SUCH EFFORTS HAVE PAID OFF IN OTHER NATIONS. THE LEGISLATION [EDS: PASSED 10/7/98] AUTHORIZES THE CLINTON ADMINISTRATION TO PICK ONE OR MORE IRAQI OPPOSITION GROUPS FOR SUPPORT WITHIN A FEW MONTHS. SENATOR LOTT SAYS THE "IRAQI NATIONAL CONGRESS" IS A GOOD CANDIDATE FOR THE MONEY. CRITICS OF THE PLAN SAY OPPOSITION GROUPS WILL LIKELY FIELD ONLY A FEW THOUSAND TROOPS, AND THEY WILL BE CRUSHED BY SADDAM HUSSEIN'S LARGE, WELL-EQUIPPED REPUBLICAN GUARD FORCE. BUT AHMED CHALABI, PRESIDENT OF THE EXECUTIVE COUNCIL OF THE IRAQI NATIONAL CONGRESS, SAYS CRITICS OVERSIMPLIFY THE SITUATION. /// CHALABI ACT /// CRITICS AND SKEPTICS ARE SORT OF BEAN COUNTERS [EXCESSIVELY CONCERNED BY NUMERICAL DETAILS]. THEY COUNT HOW MANY TANKS SADDAM HAS, AND HOW MANY TROOPS HE CAN FIELD. HOWEVER, THEY NEGLECT TO SEE THAT THE TROOPS WILL NOT FIGHT FOR HIM. /// END ACT /// MR. CHALABI SAYS IN FACT, MANY OF BAGHDAD'S TROOPS WILL DEFECT TO THE OPPOSITION. BUT MIDDLE EAST EXPERT ANTHONY CORDESMAN SAYS THE IRAQI OPPOSITION HAS LITTLE PUBLIC SUPPORT, CAN MUSTER FEW TROOPS AND HAS NO REALLY SAFE PLACE TO ORGANIZE AND OPERATE. MR. CORDESMAN IS CO-DIRECTOR OF MIDDLE EAST STUDIES AT THE PRIVATE "CENTER FOR STRATEGIC AND INTERNATIONAL STUDIES" IN WASHINGTON. HE CALLS THE PLAN TO RAISE A REBEL ARMY "A MISTAKE" FOR WASHINGTON. /// OPT CORDESMAN ACT /// IF YOU ARE DEALING WITH A MOVEMENT THIS WEAK, WHERE NO ONE IN IT HAS REAL MILITARY FORCES, THE PROBLEM IS THAT YOU CAN START SOMETHING THAT YOU CAN'T EASILY FINISH. AND IF THEY ACTUALLY GET INVOLVED IN MILITARY ACTION, THE QUESTION OF 'ARE YOU GOING TO PROVIDE TROOPS ON THE GROUND, AND AIR COVER?' BECOMES CRITICAL. /// END ACT /// MR. CORDESMAN SAYS THAT IS A COMMITMENT NO U-S PRESIDENT IS LIKELY TO MAKE. // END OPT // PENTAGON SPOKESMAN KEN BACON SAYS PRESIDENT CLINTON WILL PROBABLY SIGN THE "IRAQ LIBERATION ACT," BUT HE SAYS MANY DECISIONS MUST STILL BE MADE ON WHO WILL PUT THIS PLAN INTO EFFECT, AND HOW THEY WILL DO IT. /// REST OPT /// /// BACON ACT /// THE PRESIDENT HAS DISCRETION UNDER THIS PROVISION. I DON'T THINK ANY DECISIONS HAVE BEEN MADE TO DO THAT AT THIS STAGE. AND BEFORE ANY PLANS ARE MADE, WE WILL HAVE TO REVIEW WHETHER OR NOT AID WILL MEET OUR REGIONAL OBJECTIVES, AND WE WOULD WANT TO TALK TO OUR ALLIES IN THE REGION AS WELL. /// END ACT /// MR. BACON SAYS THE ADMINISTRATION HAS BEEN TRYING OTHER WAYS TO STRENGTHEN OPPOSITION TO IRAQI LEADER SADDAM HUSSEIN. HE SAYS TOP U-S OFFICIALS HAVE GOTTEN SOME KURDISH GROUPS WHO OPPOSE SADDAM HUSSEIN TO STOP FIGHTING EACH OTHER AND PRESENT A UNITED FRONT TO BAGHDAD. (SIGNED) NEB/JR/WDC/WTW 20-Oct-98 5:37 PM EDT (2137 UTC) NNNN Source: Voice of America .