DATE=
TYPE=BACKGROUND REPORT
NUMBER=5-41563
TITLE=SUPER WEAPONS THREAT
BYLINE= ED WARNER
DATELINE= WASHINGTON
CONTENT=
VOICED AT: 

INTRO:  WEAPONS OF MASS DESTRUCTION ARE A FEARSOME PROSPECT, BUT 
NOT NECESSARILY AN IMMEDIATE THREAT. THAT SEEMED TO BE THE 
CONSENSUS OF PARTICIPANTS AT A CONFERENCE ON BIOLOGICAL AND 
CHEMICAL TERRORISM HOSTED BY JANE'S DEFENSE MAGAZINES, THE 
BRITISH-BASED PUBLICATIONS DEALING WITH ALL ASPECTS OF MILITARY 
WEAPONRY AND STRATEGY. VOA'S ED WARNER REPORTS THE DISCUSSION AND
THE VIEWS OF A PROMINENT ISRAELI ANALYST.

TEXT:  THE U-S GOVERNMENT IS TAKING NO CHANCES. THE FBI AND OTHER
DEPARTMENTS AND AGENCIES SAY THEY ARE READY TO MEET THE THREAT OF
CHEMICAL AND BIOLOGICAL WEAPONS, WHICH NATION STATES AND 
TERRORIST GROUPS ARE STRIVING TO OBTAIN AND POSSIBLY USE. 

AT A RECENT WASHINGTON CONFERENCE ON WEAPONS OF MASS DESTRUCTION,
FBI COUNTER TERRORISM CHIEF ROBERT BLITZER SAID HIS AGENCY IN 
COOPERATION WITH STATE AND LOCAL GOVERNMENTS HAD PREVENTED TEN 
TERRORIST ACTS IN THE UNITED STATES LAST YEAR. BUT THESE WERE 
SMALL-SCALE, INVOLVING CONVENTIONAL WEAPONS. 

MR. BLITZER NOTED A TYPICAL INCIDENT THAT OCCURRED A FEW MONTHS 
AGO. A MAN UPSET OVER A DIVORCE ENTERED A COURTHOUSE IN A 
SOUTHERN STATE AND THREATENED TO DESTROY IT: 

                        // BLITZER ACT //

         THAT PERSON WAS STRAPPED WITH AN EXPLOSIVE DEVICE, AND 
         WITHIN THAT DEVICE HE HAD SOME BOTTLES WHICH HE SAID 
         WERE CHEMICALS. AND IF HE DETONATED THE DEVICE, HE WOULD
         HAVE SOME KIND OF CHEMICAL RELEASE. AND SO THERE WAS A 
         CRISIS COMMAND POST SET UP AT THE SCENE, AND WE WERE 
         PLUGGED RIGHT INTO THAT CRISIS SITE. 

                          // END ACT //

AFTER TALKING IT OVER, THE CRISIS TEAM DECIDED THE BOTTLES DID 
NOT CONTAIN CHEMICALS, AND THAT TURNED OUT TO BE THE CASE - MUCH 
TO THEIR RELIEF WHEN THE MAN FINALLY SURRENDERED. THE 
ANTI-TERRORISM FORCES, SAID MR. BLITZER, HAVE BECOME A FAMILY 
THAT WORKS TOGETHER. 

THEY ALSO GET SIGNIFICANT HELP OVERSEAS, AS IN THE SUCCESSFUL 
INVESTIGATION OF THE BOMBINGS OF THE U-S EMBASSIES IN AFRICA:

                        // BLITZER ACT //

         I HAVE NEVER SEEN AS MUCH WILLINGNESS ON THE PART OF 
         FOREIGN LAW ENFORCEMENT AND TO SOME DEGREE INTELLIGENCE 
         SERVICES TO WORK WITH US ON THESE MAJOR CASES BECAUSE 
         YOU KNOW, NEXT TIME IT COULD BE THEM. IT IS US THIS 
         TIME.

                          // END ACT //

MR. BLITZER SAID HE MUST ALSO CONTEND WITH MANY THREATS THAT TURN
OUT TO BE HOAXES OR WITH ECCENTRICS WHO WANT TO OBTAIN  LETHAL 
AGENTS APPARENTLY FOR THE FUN OF IT.  BUT NONE OF THESE CAN BE 
IGNORED, GIVEN THE DANGER THEY MAY POSE.  

PUT YOURSELF IN THE MIND OF THE TERRORIST, SAID JEAN PASCAL 
ZANDERS OF THE STOCKHOLM INTERNATIONAL PEACE RESEARCH INSTITUTE. 
HE IS ON EDGE BECAUSE IT IS ILLEGAL TO OBTAIN WEAPONS OF MASS 
DESTRUCTION. ONE FALSE MOVE, AND HE COULD BE CAUGHT AND SEVERELY 
PUNISHED.

SO HIS TENDENCY IS TO MOVE TOO FAST TO ACCOMPLISH HIS PURPOSE:  

                        // ZANDERS ACT //

         THERE ARE INTERNAL PRESSURES TO USE THESE AGENTS BEFORE 
         THEY HAVE COME TO FULL TECHNICAL DEVELOPMENT. THE 
         CONSEQUENCE OF THAT, OF COURSE, IS OF LOW GRADE AGENTS 
         BEING USED, DISSEMINATION DEVICES WHICH ARE NOT REALLY 
         FULLY DEVELOPED. THEREFORE, WHAT WE MIGHT EXPECT ON THE 
         BASIS OF LABORATORY ANALYSIS WOULD NOT NECESSARILY 
         MATERIALIZE IN THE REAL WORLD.

                          // END ACT //

MR. ZANDERS SAID GIVEN THESE OBSTACLES, A BIOLOGICAL OR CHEMICAL 
ATTACK COULD CAUSE SIGNIFICANT CASUALTIES BUT NOT A GREAT NUMBER 
OF DEATHS. THE THREAT IS GENUINE  IN HIS OPINION, BUT LIMITED. 

WRITING IN "FOREIGN POLICY" QUARTERLY, EHUD SPRINZAK, PROFESSOR 
OF POLITICAL SCIENCE AT HEBREW UNIVERSITY OF JERUSALEM, SAYS THE 
GREATER DANGER MAY BE PANIC CAUSED BY AN EXAGGERATED FEAR OF 
WEAPONS OF MASS DESTRUCTION. AND THAT PLAYS INTO THE HANDS OF 
TERRORISTS WHO DO NOT NECESSARILY WANT TO DESTROY A SOCIETY BUT 
TO SCARE IT INTO SUPPORTING THEIR PARTICLAR CAUSE.

SINCE TERRORISTS ARE POLITICALLY MOTIVATED, WRITES MR. SPRINZAK, 
THEY CAN BE IDENTIFIED AND APPREHENDED OFTEN BEFORE THEY ACT. 
SOME QUITE OPENLY PUBLICIZE THEIR INTENTIONS, EVEN ON THE 
INTERNET. HE BELIEVES THE TERRORIST SUPER WEAPONS THREAT IS A 
FORM OF PSYCHOLOGICAL WARFARE AND SHOULD BE COMBATTED ON THAT 
BASIS.  (SIGNED)


NEB/PT



08-Oct-98 7:48 PM EDT (2348 UTC)
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Source: Voice of America
.