DATE=8/11/98
TYPE=BACKGROUND REPORT
NUMBER=5-41121
TITLE=TERRORISM / MIDEAST ANALYSIS
BYLINE=SCOTT BOBB
DATELINE=CAIRO
CONTENT=
VOICED AT: 



INTRO:  THE BOMB ATTACKS AT U-S EMBASSIES IN KENYA AND TANZANIA 
BROUGHT INTERNATIONAL CONDEMNATION FOR THE LOSS OF INNOCENT LIFE.
THEY ALSO BROUGHT PLEDGES BY THE GOVERNMENTS AFFECTED TO BRING TO
JUSTICE THOSE RESPONSIBLE AND CONSIDERABLE SPECULATION ABOUT WHO 
WOULD DO SUCH A THING AND FOR WHAT REASONS.  MIDDLE EAST 
CORRESPONDENT SCOTT BOBB TALKED WITH EXPERTS ON TERRORISM AND HAS
THIS REPORT ON THEIR VIEWS ABOUT THE SUBJECT.

TEXT:  ANALYSTS IN THE MIDDLE EAST JOINED IN CONDEMNING THE BOMB 
ATTACKS IN KENYA AND TANZANIA, SAYING FOR MOST PEOPLE IN THE 
REGION, THE ACTS WERE ABHORRENT AND INHUMANE.  

BUT, THEY ALSO NOTE THERE IS A HIGH DEGREE OF FRUSTRATION OVER 
WHAT ARE PERCEIVED TO BE INJUSTICES ON THE PART OF THE WORLD 
COMMUNITY AND IN PARTICULAR UNITED STATES.  THEY SAY FRUSTRATION 
OVER THE APPARENT INABILITY OF THEIR LEADERS TO RIGHT THE 
SITUATION ENCOURAGES ACTS OF VIOLENCE.

THE DEPUTY DIRECTOR OF CAIRO'S AL-AHRAM CENTER FOR POLITICAL AND 
STRATEGIC STUDIES, MOHAMED SAYED SA'ID, SPOKE TO V-O-A ABOUT 
POSSIBLE REASONS BEHIND THE ATTACKS IN KENYA AND TANZANIA.

                 ///  FIRST SAYED ACTUALITY  ///

         IN THE FIRST PLACE, THIS IS A DECLARATION OF PRESENCE, 
         THAT THEY ARE HERE IN THE FIRST PLACE.  SECONDLY, THE 
         SECOND MESSAGE IS THAT THEY HAVE A GLOBAL REACH, THEY 
         ARE  NOT  A MEAGER OR SMALL-SIZED ORGANIZATION.

                     ///  END ACTUALITY  ///

MANY EXPERTS BELIEVE THE INCIDENTS ARE RELATED TO ISSUES IN THE 
MIDDLE EAST.  THEY NOTE SEVERAL TERRORIST GROUPS HAVE TARGETED 
U-S INTERESTS IN ORDER TO PROTEST U-S POLICIES IN THE REGION.  
PROFESSOR SAYED SAYS A NUMBER OF THESE GROUPS MET EARLIER THIS 
YEAR IN CENTRAL ASIA AND AGREED TO FORM A UNITED FRONT.

/// OPT ///  HE SAYS SOME OF THESE GROUPS STRONGLY OBJECT TO THE 
U-S MILITARY PRESENCE IN THE ARAB WORLD AND IN PARTICULAR IN 
SAUDI ARABIA, WHICH IS HOME TO THE TWO HOLIEST SHRINES IN ISLAM.

/// OPT ///  OTHER GROUPS OBJECT TO A RECENT INTERNATIONAL 
EXTRADITION AGREEMENT THAT HAS SEEN MANY DISSIDENTS RETURNED HOME
FOR TRIAL AND PRISON.  SOME OF THESE DISSIDENTS HAVE ALREADY BEEN
CONVICTED OF TERRORISM, BUT OTHERS HAVE  NOT  BEEN TRIED, CAUSING
PROTESTS FROM HUMAN RIGHTS GROUPS.

/// OPT ///  MANY OF THESE GROUPS CRITICIZE THE LACK OF PROGRESS 
TOWARD PEACE IN THE MIDDLE EAST.  THEY SYMPATHIZE WITH THE 
PALESTINIAN CAUSE.  THEY BLAME THE STALEMATE ON ISRAEL AND WHAT 
THEY SEE AS U-S POLICIES THAT FAVOR ISRAELI POSITIONS OVER 
PALESTINIAN ONES.  /// END OPT ///

A RESEARCHER AT THE AL-AHRAM CENTER, HALLA MOUSTAFA, SAYS BECAUSE
OF U-S POLICIES, ISLAMISTS ARE GAINING SUPPORT IN THE REGION, 
FOLLOWING SEVERAL YEARS OF SETBACKS.

                    ///  HALLA ACTUALITY  ///

         THE U-S ADMINISTRATION, MAYBE IT HAS TO TAKE INTO 
         CONSIDERATION THIS ANIMOSITY WHICH WAS GROWING AMONG THE
         ARAB PEOPLES AGAINST THE U.S. POLICY TOWARD THE PEACE 
         PROCESS.

                     ///  END ACTUALITY  ///

PROFESSOR HALLA SAYS THE U-S GOVERNMENT IS PERCEIVED AS FAVORING 
ISRAEL IN THE PEACE PROCESS AND THIS PERCEPTION IS REDUCING ITS 
DIPLOMATIC EFFECTIVENESS IN THE REGION.  U-S OFFICIALS DISPUTE 
THIS ASSERTION AND SAY THEY ARE EQUALLY FRUSTRATED WITH THE LACK 
OF PROGRESS IN THE PEACE PROCESS, BUT SAY PRIVATELY THEY FEAR THE
STALEMATE MAY CONTINUE UNTIL THERE IS A CHANGE OF GOVERNMENT IN 
ISRAEL.  ARAB LEADERS SAY THEY FEAR A RESURGENCE OF VIOLENCE IN 
THE REGION IF THE CRISIS IS  NOT  DEFUSED.

                       ///  REST OPT  ///

PROFESSOR SAYED NOTES, DESPITE THE FRUSTRATION MOST PEOPLE IN THE
MIDDLE EAST REJECT TERRORISM BECAUSE VIOLENCE GOES AGAINST THEIR 
RELIGION AND HURTS THEIR POLITICAL CAUSES.

                  ///  2ND SAYED ACTUALITY  ///

         I THINK EVENTS OF THIS NATURE ARE UNIVERSALLY CONDEMNED 
         IN THE ARAB AND ISLAMIC WORLD BECAUSE THEY CONTINUE TO 
         POLLUTE THE IMAGE OF ISLAM AND THEY ARE INTENDED TO 
         REVERSE THE RISING SYMPATHY WITHIN THE UNITED STATES, 
         WITH THE PLIGHT OF THE PALESTINIAN PEOPLE, AND THE NEED 
         TO DO JUSTICE TO THE PALESTINIANS.

                     ///  END ACTUALITY  ///

SOME ANALYSTS IN THE REGION SUGGEST THE CAMPAIGN OF TERRORISM MAY
BE COMING FROM GROUPS THAT DO  NOT  WISH TO SEE PEACE IN THE 
MIDDLE EAST.

MANY DISAGREE.  BUT VIRTUALLY ALL ACKNOWLEDGE VIOLENCE LIKE THE 
BOMBINGS IN KENYA AND TANZANIA DISRUPTS NORMAL LIFE, FOR A PERIOD
OF TIME, AND DIVERTS THE ATTENTION OF WORLD LEADERS FROM 
COOPERATION ON THE JOINT PURSUIT OF LONG-TERM STRATEGIC GOALS.  
THEY SAY THAT MAY WELL SERVE THE INTERESTS OF THOSE FOR WHOM 
THESE LONG-TERM GOALS REPRESENT A THREAT.   (SIGNED)

NEB/SB/RAE

11-Aug-98 12:09 PM EDT (1609 UTC)
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Source: Voice of America
.