DATE=8/4/98 TYPE=BACKGROUND REPORT NUMBER=5-41079 TITLE=KHATAMI ANNIVERSARY -- P 2: POWER STRUGGLE BYLINE=ALI JALALI DATELINE=WASHINGTON CONTENT= NOT VOICED: INTRO: AT THE END OF HIS FIRST YEAR IN OFFICE (AUG 3), THE REFORMIST IRANIAN PRESIDENT MOHAMMAD KHATAMI FACES GROWING OPPOSITION FROM HARDLINE CONSERVATIVES ON MAJOR POLICY ISSUES. (IN THIS SECOND OF A FOUR-PART SERIES), V-O-A'S ALI JALALI LOOKS AT THE FACTIONAL POLITICS IN IRAN AND THE WAY IT SHAPES DEVELOPMENTS IN THE THE COUNTRY. TEXT: THE CLOSING DAYS OF PRESIDENT KHATAMI'S FIRST YEAR IN OFFICE HAVE BEEN MARKED BY INCREASED PRESSURE BY HARDLINERS FOR CURBING PRESS FREEDOM PROMOTED BY THE PRESIDENT. THE PRESSURE FOLLOWS SIMILAR ACTIONS BY THE CONSERVATIVE-CONTROLLED PARLIAMENT (MAJLIS) AND THE JUDICIARY AGAINST MR. KHATAMI'S KEY POLITICAL ALLIES. LAST MONTH, THE MAJLIS IMPEACHED REFORMIST INTERIOR MINISTER ABDULLAH NOURI AND A SPECIAL COURT CONVICTED TEHRAN MAYOR GHOLAM-HUSSEIN KARBASCHI OF EMBEZZLEMENT CHARGES. PROFESSOR HOSHANG AMIR-AHMADI OF RUTGERS UNIVERSITY, WHO FREQUENTLY TRAVELS TO IRAN, SAYS THE DISPUTE OVER THE EXTENT OF LIBERALIZATION IS A STRUGGLE FOR POWER. // AMIR-AHMADI ACT // THE PEOPLE WHO CAME TO POWER WITH MR. KHATAMI OR THE MOVEMENT THAT BROUGHT MR. KHATAMI TO POWER IS THE ONE THAT IS STRUGGLING NOT ONLY TO MAINTAIN THE MOMENTUM, BUT ALSO TO DEEPEN THE MOVEMENT INTO THE FUTURE AND IS SORT OF DEMANDING AND TRYING TO GAIN SIGNIFICANT COMPROMISES FROM THE OTHER SIDE. AND THE CONSERVATIVES ALSO ARE TRYING OBVIOUSLY TO REGAIN THE LOST PRIVILEGES AND POWER AND THEY HAVE IN THE RECENT MONTHS BEEN ABLE TO REGAIN PART OF WHAT THEY LOST IN THE ELECTION PERIOD. // END ACT // BUT THE DIVIDING LINE BETWEEN RIVAL FACTIONS IN THE GOVERNMENT IS SAID TO BE BLURRED. THE MODERATES, ARRAYED BEHIND THE PRESIDENT, RELY ON BROAD-BASED PUBLIC SUPPORT WHILE THE CONSERVATIVES DERIVE POWER FROM THEIR CONTROL OF STATE INSTITUTIONS -- INCLUDING THE PARLIAMENT, THE JUDICIARY, THE ARMY AND THE SECURITY FORCES. OBSERVERS OF IRANIAN POLITICS EMPHASIZE WIDE DIVERSITY CHARACTERIZES THE COMPOSITION OF EACH CAMP, AND THEY NOTE DIFFERENCES OVER CRITICAL ISSUES CUT ACROSS FACTIONAL LINES. FOR EXAMPLE, NOT ALL MODERATE GROUPS FAVOR FREE-MARKET REFORM AND NOT ALL CONSERVATIVE FACTIONS OPPOSE OPENING THE COUNTRY TO THE WEST. THE RESULTING MUTLTI-LATERAL SCRIMMAGE, IN THE VIEW OF FRENCH AUTHOR AND ANALYST OLIVIER ROY, MOSTLY INVOLVES THE RULING ELITES AND SELDOM EXTENDS BEYOND THE GOVERNMENT STRUCTURE. // ROY ACT // THE POLARIZATION IS VERY INTENSE INSIDE THE STATE APPARATUS, INSIDE THE ADMINISTRATION, BUT ONE CAN NOT SAY THE SAME THING ABOUT THE POPULATION. APPARENTLY THE POPULARITY OF PRESIDENT KHATAMI IS AS HIGH, EVEN HIGHER THAN IT WAS AT THE TIME OF HIS ELECTION. SO, THERE IS NO TENSION IN THE FIELD, THE COUNTRY IS NOT DIVIDED INTO TWO FACTIONS. // END ACT // HE SAYS PUBLIC OPINION IN IRAN IS BEING CONSOLIDATED INTO A POWERFUL POLITICAL FORCE BOTH FACTIONS IN THE GOVERNMENT WILL HAVE TO RECKON WITH. VETERAN IRANIAN JOURNALIST ISMAIL POURVALI AGREES, SAYING THE POLITICAL INFLUENCE OF PUBLIC OPINION WILL HAVE A DECISIVE IMPACT ON THE OUTCOME OF THE POWER STRUGGLE IN IRAN. // POURVALI ACT IN FARSI -- FADE UNDER // HE SAYS MR. KHATAMI CAN MOVE LITTLE ON THE REFORM PATH IN THE FACE OF STRONG OPPOSITION FROM WITHIN THE ESTABLISHMENT, BUT THE PRESIDENT CAN TIP THE BALANCE IN HIS FAVOR BY MOBILIZING PUBLIC OPINION BEHIND HIS REFORM AGENDA. MANY OBSERVERS OF IRANIAN POLITICS AGREE A REFORM-ORIENTED PUBLIC MOVEMENT IS RISING ABOVE THE FACTIONAL BICKERING INSIDE THE GOVERNMENT. PROFESSOR AMIR-AHMADI SAYS THE MOVEMENT HAS BEEN PLAYING A BALANCING ROLE. // AMIR-AHMADI ACT // THE SOCIETY, AS A WHOLE, AT THIS POINT IS NOT PREPARED FOR RUPTURE OF A MAJOR PROPORTION IN ITS PROCESSES, AND THEREFORE THE GENERAL UNDERSTANDING AMONG THE RULING ELITE IS THAT WHATEVER STRUGGLE THEY ARE ENGAGED AGAINST ONE ANOTHER THAT STRUGGLE MUST REMAIN WITHIN A PARTICULAR BORDER OR FRAMEWORK, BUT SHOULD NOT SPILL OVER TO THE LARGER SOCIETY. AND IF IT DOES IT HAS TO BE IMMEDIATELY CONTAINED BY THE COOPERATION FROM ALL SIDES, PARTICULARLY THE TWO MAJOR FACTIONS WITHIN THE GOVERNMENT. // END ACT // LOUISIANA STATE UNIVERSITY PROFESSOR MARK GASIOROWSKI, WHO HAS RECENTLY VISITED IRAN AND TAUGHT IN TEHRAN UNIVERSITY, SAYS DESPITE THE LONG-TERM IRREVERSIBLE TRENDS FOR LIBERALIZATION IN IRAN, THE STRUGGLE FOR POWER WILL DOMINATE IRANIAN POLITICS IN THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE // GASIOROWSKI ACT // BOTH SIDES ARE LOOKING FOR GRADUAL INCREMENTAL GAIN THAT WOULD SLOWLY BREAK THE DEADLOCK AND BREAK INTO POWER. I THINK THIS IS THE MOST LIKELY WAY THAT THE CURRENT STALEMATE WILL END SOMETIME, SOMEHOW OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL YEARS. // END ACT // ANALYSTS LOOK FORWARD TO THE NEXT MAJLIS ELECTIONS, IN 18-MONTHS, FOR A BREAKTHROUGH IN THE DEADLOCK. (SIGNED) NEB/RAE 04-Aug-98 9:25 AM EDT (1325 UTC) NNNN Source: Voice of America .