DATE=8/3/98 TYPE=BACKGROUND REPORT NUMBER=5-41071 TITLE=KHATAMI ANNIVERSARY -- P 1: REFORMS BYLINE=ALI JALALI DATELINE=WASHINGTON CONTENT= NOT VOICED: INTRO: ONE YEAR AGO THIS WEEK (AUGUST 3), THE REFORM-MINDED IRANIAN PRESIDENT MOHAMMAD KHATAMI BEGAN HIS TERM IN OFFICE FOLLOWING A LANDSLIDE ELECTION VICTORY OVER HIS HARDLINE OPPONENT. THE SHIFT HAS BEEN SEEN AS A TURNING POINT IN IRAN'S ISLAMIC REVOLUTION. (IN THIS FIRST OF A FOUR-PART SERIES), V-O-A'S ALI JALALI REVIEWS THE RECORD OF MR. KHATAMI DURING HIS FIRST YEAR IN OFFICE. TEXT: PRESIDENT KHATAMI HAS BEEN ONE OF THE MOST CLOSELY WATCHED LEADERS IN IRAN AND FAR BEYOND ITS BORDERS. HIS LANDSLIDE ELECTION ON A REFORM MANDATE RAISED EXPECTATIONS FOR FUNDAMENTAL CHANGES IN IRAN AND OPENING UP OF THE COUNTRY TO THE OUTSIDE WORLD. NOW, ONE YEAR AFTER HIS INAUGURATION, MR. KHATAMI FINDS HIMSELF HAMSTRUNG (CRIPPLED) BY A SYSTEM WHERE THE PRESIDENT HOLDS THE TOP ELECTED POST BUT NOT THE HIGHEST EXECUTIVE POWER. HE IS OUT-MATCHED IN AUTHORITY BY THE SUPREME RELIGIOUS LEADER, AYATOLLAH ALI KHAMENEI, WHO ALONG WITH HIS CONSERVATIVE ALLIES CONTROLS MOST OF THE LEVERS OF POWER INCLUDING THE PARLIAMENT, THE JUDICIARY, THE ARMY AND THE SECURITY FORCES. MEANWHILE, THE CHANGE-SEEKING POPULAR MOVEMENT THAT BROUGHT MR. KHATAMI TO POWER REMAINS ACTIVE AND VOCAL. CAUGHT BETWEEN PUBLIC DEMANDS FOR CHANGE AND THE ANTI-REFORM POSTURE OF THE CONSERVATIVE CLERGY, MR. KHATAMI, IN THE VIEW OF WESTERN OBSERVERS, HAS OPTED FOR A SLOW BUT STEADY MOVE TOWARD HIS CAMPAIGN GOALS. PROFESSOR HOSHANG AMIR-AHMADI OF RUTGERS UNIVERSITY, WHO VISITED IRAN LAST MONTH, SAYS THE OUTCOME HAS BEEN MIXED. // AMIR-AHMADI ACT // PRESIDENT KHATAMI HAD A PLAN FOR POLITICAL DEVELOPMENT THAT FOCUSED ON A FREER PRESS AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF POLITICAL PARTIES, THE RULE OF LAW AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF CIVIL SOCIETY INSTITUTIONS. IN THIS AREA, THE RESULT OVER THE YEAR HAS BEEN MIXED. BY THAT I MEAN THERE ARE AREAS WHERE THERE HAS BEEN SIGNIFICANT CHANGE, AND THERE ARE AREAS WHERE THE CHANGES HAVE NOT BEEN SO IMPORTANT. // END ACT // MR. AMIR-AHMADI SAYS NO REAL OPPOSITION PARTIES HAVE EMERGED SO FAR AND NO MAJOR IMPROVEMENT HAS BEEN ACHIEVED IN THE RULE OF LAW. BUT, HE SAYS, SIGNIFICANT STEPS HAVE BEEN TAKEN TOWARD LIBERALIZING THE MEDIA AND RELAXING CERTAIN SOCIAL AND CULTURAL RESTRICTIONS. ANOTHER RECENT VISITOR TO IRAN, FRENCH AUTHOR AND ANALYST DR. OLIVIER ROY, SAYS THE IMPROVEMENT IN PRESS FREEDOM HAS FOSTERED PUBLIC DEBATE ON ISSUES THAT AFFECT THE LIVES OF INDIVIDUALS AND THE SOCIETY AS A WHOLE. // ROY ACT // WHAT IS STRIKING TO ME IS THE IMPORTANCE OF THE PUBLIC DEBATE. EVERYBODY IS NOW TALKING ABOUT POLITICS. THERE IS A LARGE FREEDOM OF PRESS -- EVEN IF, OF COURSE, THERE IS STILL SOME CENSORSHIP. FOR EXAMPLE, THE TRIAL OF THE MAYOR OF TEHRAN WAS BROADCAST EVERY EVENING AND LARGE CROWDS OF POPULATION WERE WATCHING THE BROADCAST. // END ACT // MR. ROY SAYS THE RELATIVE OPENNESS IS PREPARING FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF CIVIL SOCIETY WHICH CONTINUES TO BE A MAJOR THEME IN PRESIDENT KHATAMI'S CAMPAIGN. HOWEVER, PROFESSOR MARK GASIOROWSKI OF LOUISIANA STATE UNIVERSITY, WHO ALSO RECENTLY VISITED IRAN AND TAUGHT IN TEHRAN UNIVERSITY, TAKES EXCEPTION TO SUCH OPTIMISTIC INTERPRETATION. HE SAYS WESTERN ANALYSTS READ TO MUCH INTO THE CHANGES IN SOCIAL AND CULTURAL AREAS. // GASIOROWSKI ACT // THERE HAS BEEN CONSIDERABLE LIBERALIZATION ON THE SOCIAL AND CULTURAL ISSUES. I THINK BECAUSE OF THIS CONSIDERABLE LIBERALIZATION IN THIS AREA, A LOT OF WESTERN OBSERVERS HAVE MISTAKENLY COME TO THE CONCLUSION THAT THERE HAS BEEN A LOT OF CHANGE IN IRAN -- CHANGE OVERALL. I THINK A LOT OF PEOPLE HAVE BEEN MISLED BY PAYING TOO MUCH ATTENTION TO THESE SOCIO-CULTURAL ISSUES. // END ACT // DR. GASIOROWSKI SAYS WHAT HAS BEEN ACHIEVED IN SOCIAL AND CULTURAL AFFAIRS HAS NOT BEEN EXTENDED TO THE MOST IMPORTANT AREAS OF POLITICAL DEVELOPMENT AND ECONOMIC REFORM. GIVEN THE COUNTRY'S CONSTITUTION AND ALIGNMENT OF FORCES, HE SAYS HE DOES NOT EXPECT TO SEE MAJOR CHANGES IN IRAN IN THE NEAR FUTURE. HOWEVER HE AGREES THAT LONG-TERM SHIFTS IN THE COUNTRY MAY BECOME INEVITABLE. // OPT // DESPITE HIS STUMBLING PROGRESS IN MAKING GOOD ON HIS CAMPAIGN PLEDGES, PRESIDENT KHATAMI CONTINUES TO ENJOY A HIGH LEVEL OF POPULARITY. IRANIAN OBSERVERS ATTRIBUTE THE MOOD MOSTLY TO WHAT MR. KHATAMI STANDS FOR, RATHER THAN WHAT HE DELIVERS. // OPT // MS. SIMIN BEHBAHANI, A HIGHLY RESPECTED IRANIAN POET AND ONE OF THE MOST OUTSPOKEN DEFENDERS OF WOMEN'S RIGHTS INSIDE IRAN, SAYS MR. KHATAMI'S WIDE PUBLIC APPROVAL STEMS FROM HIS ASSOCIATION WITH AN ANTI-ESTABLISHMENT POPULAR MOVEMENT. // OPT // BEHBAHANI ACT IN FARSI -- FADE UNDER // // OPT // SHE SAYS THE REFORM UNDER PRESIDENT KHATAMI IS IN FACT THE CONTINUATION OF A TREND OF SOCIAL AND POLITICAL SHIFTS THAT ACTUALLY PRODUCED MR. KHATAMI AS A POLITICAL ENTITY AND HELPED HIM WIN HIS SWEEPING VICTORY OVER THE ESTABLISHMENT CANDIDATE IN LAST YEAR'S PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS. // OPT // BUT ANALYSTS SAY, INSTEAD OF LEADING THIS MOVEMENT AND TURNING IT INTO AN ORGANIZED POLITICAL POWER TO FORCE REFORM, MR. KHATAMI HAS BEEN TRYING TO EFFECT CHANGES FROM WITHIN THE ESTABLISHMENT. PROFESSOR AMIR-AHMADI SAYS THE MOVE BROUGHT HALFWAY RESULTS. // OPT // AMIR-AHMADI ACT // HE (PRESIDENT KHATAMI) TRIED TO USE THE MOVEMENT TO BRING CHANGES IN THE SOCIETY, BUT HE IMMEDIATELY FOUND OUT THAT THERE WAS NO CONSENSUS WITHIN THE RULING ELITE ON THE EXTENT OF THE CHANGE, AND AS A RESULT HE HAS SLOWED DOWN AND TAKEN BACK STEPS IN THE DIRECTION OF GETTING CLOSER TO THE CORE ELITE GROUP, TRYING TO MAKE COMPROMISES SUCH THAT THE CORE ELITE WILL ACCEPT CERTAIN LEVEL OF CHANGES IN THE SOCIETY. // END ACT // // OPT // MR. AMIR-AHMADI AGREES WITH MANY OTHER OBSERVERS THAT PRESIDENT KHATAMI IS STILL COMMITTED TO REFORMS, BUT IS WAITING FOR BETTER POLITICAL CONDITIONS TO PUSH HARDER. // END OPT // ANALYSTS SAY MR. KHATAMI SEEMS TO BE TRYING TO OUTWAIT THE CONSERVATIVE DOMINATION EXPECTED TO LAST AT LEAST UNTIL THE NEXT PARLIAMENT (MAJLIS) ELECTIONS, ABOUT ONE-YEAR-AND-HALF YEARS AWAY. THEY SAY HE HOPES THE POLITICAL ORIENTATION OF THE NEXT MAJLIS WILL FOSTER DEEPER TRANSFORMATION THROUGH CONSTITUTIONAL AMENDMENTS. (SIGNED) NEB/AJ/MMK 03-Aug-98 10:35 AM EDT (1435 UTC) NNNN Source: Voice of America .