DATE=7/15/98
TYPE=CORRESPONDENT REPORT
NUMBER=2-235527
TITLE= CONGRESS - MISSILE THREAT (L ONLY)
BYLINE= PAULA WOLFSON
DATELINE= CAPITOL HILL
CONTENT=
VOICED AT: 

INTRO:      A NEW REPORT SAYS THE BALLISTIC MISSILE THREAT FACING
THE UNITED STATES IS GROWING...AND WEAPONS CAPABLE OF HITTING 
AMERICAN SOIL COULD BE DEPLOYED WITH LITTLE WARNING.   THE REPORT
WAS COMPILED BY A COMMISSION OF AMERICAN DEFENSE EXPERTS THAT WAS
GIVEN UNUSUAL ACCESS TO CLASSIFIED INFORMATION.  V-O-A'S PAULA 
WOLFSON HAS DETAILS.

TEXT:       MEMBERS OF THE COMMISSION SAW SECRET DATA FROM A WIDE
RANGE OF SOURCES.   THEY SAY THOSE PIECES OF INFORMATION FORMED 
ONE DISTURBING PICTURE.

THE COMMISSION CHAIRMAN IS FORMER DEFENSE SECRETARY DONALD 
RUMSFELD. HE SAYS TRADE AND TECHNOLOGY TRANSFERS AROUND THE GLOBE
ARE FUELING MISSILE DEVELOPMENT IN THE POST COLD WAR WORLD.

                      ////RUMSFELD ACT////

         WE LIVE IN A WORLD THAT IS VERY VERY DIFFERENT.  PEOPLE 
         WHO WANT THESE THINGS CAN GET THESE THINGS.  AND THEY 
         ARE GETTING THEM.

                        ////END ACT/////

THE COMMISSION LOOKED AT MISSILE PROGRAMS IN RUSSIA, CHINA, 
INDIA, PAKISTAN AND THREE COUNTRIES HOSTILE TO THE UNITED STATES:
IRAN, IRAQ AND NORTH KOREA.   THE COMMISSIONERS STUDIED THE 
INTRICATE LINKS THAT HAVE FORMED BETWEEN COUNTRIES THAT HAVE 
BALLISTIC MISSILES...AND THOSE THAT WANT THEM.

THE PANEL SAID THE INTELLIGENCE COMMUNITY IN THE UNITED STATES 
HAS UNDERESTIMATED THE POTENTIAL THREAT.  IT SAID SOME EMERGING 
NUCLEAR POWERS COULD CONCEIVABLY DEVELOP A MISSILE CAPABLE OF 
HITTING AMERICAN SOIL IN JUST FIVE YEARS.   MR. RUMSFELD SAID, OF
GREAT CONCERN, IS THE FACT NATIONS ARE INCREASINGLY ABLE TO 
CONCEAL IMPORTANT ELEMENTS OF THEIR MISSILE PROGRAMS.

                       ////RUMSFELD ACT///

         THE MAJOR IMPLICATION OF OUR CONCLUSIONS IS THAT WARNING
         TIME IS REDUCED. INDEED, WE SEE AN ENVIRONMENT OF LITTLE
         OR NO WARNING OF BALLISTIC MISSILE THREATS TO THE UNITED
         STATES FROM SEVERAL EMERGING POWERS.

                        /////END ACT/////

CONGRESSIONAL LEADERS WHO SAW THE FULL CLASSIFIED REPORT CALLED 
IT "IMPRESSIVE" AND "THE MOST SERIOUS WARNING SINCE THE END OF 
THE COLD WAR."    THE REPORT DOES NOT LIST OPTIONS FOR DEALING 
WITH THE PROBLEM.  INSTEAD IT URGES GOVERNMENT OFFICIALS TO SIT 
DOWN, AND RETHINK THEIR ANTI-MISSILE STRATEGY.  HOUSE SPEAKER 
NEWT GINGRICH PROMISED ACTION.

                       ///GINGRICH ACT////

         THIS REPORT SAYS -- UNANIMOUSLY -- WE NEED TO ASSUME 
         THAT THERE MAY BE NO STRATEGIC WARNING ABOUT THE 
         DEVELOPMENT OF A CAPABILITY TO HIT THE UNITED STATES. 
         AND THAT REQUIRES US TO REVIEW EVERYTHING ABOUT 
         INTELLIGENCE AND DEFENSE WITHIN THIS NEW ASSUMPTION.

                         ////END ACT////

THE NINE-MEMBER COMMISSION WAS SET UP BY CONGRESS SIX MONTHS AGO 
AS A BIPARTISAN BODY, WORKING IN COOPERATION WITH THE CENTRAL 
INTELLIGENCE AGENCY.   IN A LETTER TO THE HOUSE INTELLIGENCE 
COMMITTEE, C-I-A DIRECTOR GEORGE TENET CALLED THE THREAT POSED BY
DEVELOPMENT OF INTERCONTINENTAL BALLISTIC MISSILES "COMPLEX, 
SERIOUS AND GROWING." BUT HE ADDED THE AGENCY BELIEVES THE THREAT
TO U-S INTERESTS FROM MEDIUM RANGE MISSILES IS OF MORE IMMEDIATE 
CONCERN.   (SIGNED)

NEB/PW/PLM

15-Jul-98 6:27 PM EDT (2227 UTC)
NNNN

Source: Voice of America
.