DATE=06/09/98
TYPE=U-S OPINION ROUNDUP
NUMBER=6-10755
TITLE=REPORTS FAULTS C-I-A ON INDIAN NUKES
BYLINE=ANDREW N. GUTHRIE
TELEPHONE=619-3335
DATELINE=WASHINGTON
EDITOR=ASSIGNMENTS
CONTENT=
INTRO: THE CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY -- C-I-A -- HAS SUFFERED
A NUMBER OF INTELLIGENCE FAILURES IN RECENT YEARS. THE MOST
RECENT IS THE FAILURE TO PROVIDE WARNING OF THE RECENT INDIAN
NUCLEAR TESTS.
THE AGENCY'S PROBLEMS WERE CANDIDLY DESCRIBED IN A
RECENTLY-COMPLETED REPORT FOR THE C-I-A BY A RETIRED ADMIRAL.
NOW, THE U-S PRESS IS HAVING ITS SAY ABOUT THE REPORT AND THE SPY
AGENCY. WE'RE JOINED BY __________________, WHO HAS SOME QUOTES
FROM SEVERAL EDITORIALS IN TODAY'S U-S OPINION ROUNDUP.
TEXT: LAST MONTH'S INDIAN NUCLEAR TESTS SHOCKED WASHINGTON.
ALTHOUGH THE NATION'S INTELLIGENCE AGENCIES HAVE YEARLY BUDGETS
OF MORE THAN 20-BILLION DOLLARS, AND GET INFORMATION FROM
NUMEROUS SATELLITES THAT CIRCLE THE EARTH DAILY, THE C-I-A
LEARNED OF THE INDIAN TESTS ONLY AFTER THEY HAPPENED.
RETIRED ADMIRAL DAVID JERMIAH WAS ASKED TO PREPARE A STUDY TO
FIND OUT WHAT WENT WRONG.
NOW THAT A SUMMARY OF HIS STILL-CLASSIFIED STUDY HAS BEEN
RELEASED, THE NATION'S PRESS IS ENTERING THE FRAY WITH SOME
COMMENTS OF ITS OWN. WE BEGIN IN CALIFORNIA, WHERE "THE LOS
ANGELES TIMES" SAYS IN ITS HEADLINE TO THE COMMENTARY THAT "SPIES
NEED A SHAKE-UP."
VOICE: WHY WERE AMERICA'S INTELLIGENCE AGENCIES, WITH THEIR
VAST ARRAY OF SATELLITES, COMMUNICATIONS INTERCEPTS AND
TRAINED AGENTS AND ANALYSTS, UNABLE TO DETECT INDIA'S
PREPARATIONS TO TEST NUCLEAR WEAPONS LAST MONTH? A
CRITQUE OF THE FAILURE FINDS THE EXPLANATION TO BE
SYSTEMIC RATHER THAN UNIQUE TO THIS ONE EVENT AND
POTENTIALLY AFFECTING MUCH OF WHAT THE INTELLIGENCE
AGENCIES EXIST TO DO. INDIA'S SURPRISE TESTS WERE A
POLITICAL EMBARRASSMENT TO AMERICA'S POLICYMAKERS BUT
NOT A NATIONAL SECURITY DEBACLE. NEXT TIME THINGS
COULD BE A LOT WORSE. .... AMONG THE MOST SIGNIFICANT
- - AND LEAST EXCUSABLE - - INTELLIGENCE BLUNDERS WAS
THE REFUSAL OF VETERAN C-I-A POLITICAL ANALYSTS TO TAKE
SERIOUSLY THE HINDU NATIONALIST BHARATIYA JANATA PARTY'S
[B-J-P] CAMPAIGN PROMISES TO CONDUCT TESTS. INSTEAD,
SAID [ADMIRAL] JEREMIAH, THE ANALYSTS ASSUMED THAT
INDIAN POLITICIANS, LIKE THEIR AMERICAN COUNTERPARTS,
USUALLY IGNORE THEIR PROMISES ONCE THEY ARE ELECTED.
SUCH CULTURAL MYOPIA IS HARDLY THE STARTING POINT FOR
PERCEPTIVE ANALYSIS. ..... THE PANEL'S REPORT HAS,
NATURALLY, BEEN CLASSIFIED BY THE C-I-A. ONLY SOME OF
ITS HIGH [MAIN] POINTS HAVE BEEN DISCLOSED BY [ADMIRAL]
JEREMIAH. THE CHAIRMAN AND VICE CHAIRMAN OF THE SENATE
INTELLIGENCE COMMITTEE THINK THE REPORT SHOULD BE MADE
PUBLIC. SO DO WE. THE AMERICAN PEOPLE HAVE A RIGHT
AND CERTAINLY A COMPELLING INTEREST TO KNOW WHAT'S WRONG
WITH THE INTELLIGENCE AGENCIES THAT COST THEM
27-BILLION-DOLLAR-A-YEAR.
TEXT: "THE CHRISTIAN SCIENCE MONITOR" SAYS SOMETHING GOOD MAY
COME OUT OF THIS INTELLIEGENCE LAPSE IF THE AGENCY MAKES THE
CHANGES ADVOCATED BY THE STUDY.
VOICE: ADMIRAL JEREMIAH FOUND DEEP SEATED SYSTEMIC PROBLEMS
WITHIN THE INTELLIGENCE COMMUNITY THAT GO FAR BEYOND THE
FAILURE IN INDIA. [MR.] JEREMIAH TOLD REPORTERS ... THE
CIA HAD EFFECTIVELY NO SPIES IN INDIA, THAT ITS
ABILITY TO GET INFORMATION FROM PEOPLE WORLDWIDE IS
WEAK, AND THAT OVERWORKED ANALYSTS ARE OVERWHELMED BY
THE AMOUNT OF DATA FROM U-S SPY SATELLITES. .....HE
FOUND, BOTH ADMINISTRATION POLICY MAKERS AND
INTELLIGENCE ANALYSTS WHO SERVE THEM HAD ACCEPTED AN
'UNDERLYING MIND-SET' THAT INDIA WOULD NOT TEST ITS
NUCLEAR WEAPONS AGAIN. SO THEY DID NOT RECOGNIZE THE
SEA CHANGE WHEN THE NEW HINDU-NATIONALIST GOVERNMENT
TOOK OFFICE WITH A PROMISE TO DEPLOY NUCLEAR WEAPONS.
SENATOR BOB KERREY OF NEBRASKA, TOP DEMOCRAT ON THE
SENATE INTELLIGENCE COMMITTEE, ADVOCATES A NUMBER OF
USEFUL REFORMS. AMONG THEM: GIVE THE DIRECTOR OF
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE MORE AUTHORITY TO MANAGE THE WHOLE
INTELLIGENCE COMMUNITY, SPREAD OVER SEVERAL AGENCIES.
GIVE THE DIRECTOR CONTROL OVER THE ENTIRE INTELLIGENCE
BUDGET AND MORE AUTHORITY TO SELECT INTELLIGENCE-AGENCY
DIRECTORS. CREATE AN ASSISTANT DIRECTOR OF CENTRAL
INTELLIGENCE FOR COLLECTION AND ANOTHER FOR ANALYSIS AND
PRODUCTION, SUBJECT TO SENATE CONFIRMATION. RIGHT NOW,
NO ONE IS IN CHAGE OF COORDINATING THE EFFORTS OF THE
VARIOUS AGENCIES ....... BRING IN OUTSIDE ANALYSTS TO
REVIEW C-I-A OPERATIONS, AS BUSINESSES DO WHEN THEY FIND
THEMSELVES IN A RUT. STRIP SOME OF THE SECRECY FROM THE
INTELLIGENCE EFFORT SO THAT AMERICANS KNOW BETTER WHAT
THEY ARE PAYING FOR. BEGIN BY DECLASSIFYING THE
JEREMIAH REPORT AND CONTINUE BY DECLASSIFYING THE ANNUAL
INTELLIGENCE BUDGET.
TEXT: "THE MONITOR" SAYS THE C-I-A MUST ENSURE THAT THERE IS
NEVER ANOTHER SUPRISE NUCLEAR BLAST. "USA TODAY" SAYS THE AGENCY
NEEDS BETTER MANAGEMENT, IN ORDER TO AVOID A SIMILAR FIASCO IN
THE FUTURE.
VOICE: THE AGENCY'S FUMBLING IN THESE MATTERS ISN'T ALL ITS OWN
FAULT. THE C-I-A'S DIRECTORSHIP HAS BECOME A TURNSTILE,
WITH FIVE DIRECTORS IN EIGHT YEARS, NONE LASTING LONG
ENOUGH TO SEE ANY REFORM PROGRAM THROUGH. A BIG REASON
FOR THE RAPID CHANGES IS THE FIGHTING BETWEEN CONGRESS
AND THE WHITE HOUSE OVER WHO SHOULD BE IN CHARGE.
NEITHER HAS MADE PROFESSIONAL MANAGEMENT ... A TOP
PRIORITY. ..... THE INDIAN OVERSIGHT EXPOSED THE
AGENCY'S ANALYSTS AS UNDERTRAINED, UNINCISIVE AND JUST
PLAIN BLIND. THE ... ALDRICH AMES ....[RUSSIAN SPY]
SCANDAL EXPOSED ASTONISHING BUNGLING IN THE MANAGEMENT
OF SPIES. SO THE AGENCY HAS NOW PROVED INEPT BOTH AT
GATHERING INTELLIGENCE AND AT ANALYZING IT. WHAT ELSE
IS THERE? ... IT'S TIME THE AGENCY GOT REAL MANAGEMENT.
TEXT: ON THAT NOTE, WE CONCLUDE THIS SAMPLING OF COMMENT ON THE
FAILURE OF THE C-I-A TO PREDICT THE INDIAN NUCLEAR TEST PROGRAM,
AND WHAT THE GOVERNMENT PROPOSES TO DO ABOUT IT.
NEB/ANG/GE
09-Jun-98 3:00 PM EDT (1900 UTC)
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Source: Voice of America
.