DATE=06/09/98 TYPE=U-S OPINION ROUNDUP NUMBER=6-10755 TITLE=REPORTS FAULTS C-I-A ON INDIAN NUKES BYLINE=ANDREW N. GUTHRIE TELEPHONE=619-3335 DATELINE=WASHINGTON EDITOR=ASSIGNMENTS CONTENT= INTRO: THE CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY -- C-I-A -- HAS SUFFERED A NUMBER OF INTELLIGENCE FAILURES IN RECENT YEARS. THE MOST RECENT IS THE FAILURE TO PROVIDE WARNING OF THE RECENT INDIAN NUCLEAR TESTS. THE AGENCY'S PROBLEMS WERE CANDIDLY DESCRIBED IN A RECENTLY-COMPLETED REPORT FOR THE C-I-A BY A RETIRED ADMIRAL. NOW, THE U-S PRESS IS HAVING ITS SAY ABOUT THE REPORT AND THE SPY AGENCY. WE'RE JOINED BY __________________, WHO HAS SOME QUOTES FROM SEVERAL EDITORIALS IN TODAY'S U-S OPINION ROUNDUP. TEXT: LAST MONTH'S INDIAN NUCLEAR TESTS SHOCKED WASHINGTON. ALTHOUGH THE NATION'S INTELLIGENCE AGENCIES HAVE YEARLY BUDGETS OF MORE THAN 20-BILLION DOLLARS, AND GET INFORMATION FROM NUMEROUS SATELLITES THAT CIRCLE THE EARTH DAILY, THE C-I-A LEARNED OF THE INDIAN TESTS ONLY AFTER THEY HAPPENED. RETIRED ADMIRAL DAVID JERMIAH WAS ASKED TO PREPARE A STUDY TO FIND OUT WHAT WENT WRONG. NOW THAT A SUMMARY OF HIS STILL-CLASSIFIED STUDY HAS BEEN RELEASED, THE NATION'S PRESS IS ENTERING THE FRAY WITH SOME COMMENTS OF ITS OWN. WE BEGIN IN CALIFORNIA, WHERE "THE LOS ANGELES TIMES" SAYS IN ITS HEADLINE TO THE COMMENTARY THAT "SPIES NEED A SHAKE-UP." VOICE: WHY WERE AMERICA'S INTELLIGENCE AGENCIES, WITH THEIR VAST ARRAY OF SATELLITES, COMMUNICATIONS INTERCEPTS AND TRAINED AGENTS AND ANALYSTS, UNABLE TO DETECT INDIA'S PREPARATIONS TO TEST NUCLEAR WEAPONS LAST MONTH? A CRITQUE OF THE FAILURE FINDS THE EXPLANATION TO BE SYSTEMIC RATHER THAN UNIQUE TO THIS ONE EVENT AND POTENTIALLY AFFECTING MUCH OF WHAT THE INTELLIGENCE AGENCIES EXIST TO DO. INDIA'S SURPRISE TESTS WERE A POLITICAL EMBARRASSMENT TO AMERICA'S POLICYMAKERS BUT NOT A NATIONAL SECURITY DEBACLE. NEXT TIME THINGS COULD BE A LOT WORSE. .... AMONG THE MOST SIGNIFICANT - - AND LEAST EXCUSABLE - - INTELLIGENCE BLUNDERS WAS THE REFUSAL OF VETERAN C-I-A POLITICAL ANALYSTS TO TAKE SERIOUSLY THE HINDU NATIONALIST BHARATIYA JANATA PARTY'S [B-J-P] CAMPAIGN PROMISES TO CONDUCT TESTS. INSTEAD, SAID [ADMIRAL] JEREMIAH, THE ANALYSTS ASSUMED THAT INDIAN POLITICIANS, LIKE THEIR AMERICAN COUNTERPARTS, USUALLY IGNORE THEIR PROMISES ONCE THEY ARE ELECTED. SUCH CULTURAL MYOPIA IS HARDLY THE STARTING POINT FOR PERCEPTIVE ANALYSIS. ..... THE PANEL'S REPORT HAS, NATURALLY, BEEN CLASSIFIED BY THE C-I-A. ONLY SOME OF ITS HIGH [MAIN] POINTS HAVE BEEN DISCLOSED BY [ADMIRAL] JEREMIAH. THE CHAIRMAN AND VICE CHAIRMAN OF THE SENATE INTELLIGENCE COMMITTEE THINK THE REPORT SHOULD BE MADE PUBLIC. SO DO WE. THE AMERICAN PEOPLE HAVE A RIGHT AND CERTAINLY A COMPELLING INTEREST TO KNOW WHAT'S WRONG WITH THE INTELLIGENCE AGENCIES THAT COST THEM 27-BILLION-DOLLAR-A-YEAR. TEXT: "THE CHRISTIAN SCIENCE MONITOR" SAYS SOMETHING GOOD MAY COME OUT OF THIS INTELLIEGENCE LAPSE IF THE AGENCY MAKES THE CHANGES ADVOCATED BY THE STUDY. VOICE: ADMIRAL JEREMIAH FOUND DEEP SEATED SYSTEMIC PROBLEMS WITHIN THE INTELLIGENCE COMMUNITY THAT GO FAR BEYOND THE FAILURE IN INDIA. [MR.] JEREMIAH TOLD REPORTERS ... THE CIA HAD EFFECTIVELY NO SPIES IN INDIA, THAT ITS ABILITY TO GET INFORMATION FROM PEOPLE WORLDWIDE IS WEAK, AND THAT OVERWORKED ANALYSTS ARE OVERWHELMED BY THE AMOUNT OF DATA FROM U-S SPY SATELLITES. .....HE FOUND, BOTH ADMINISTRATION POLICY MAKERS AND INTELLIGENCE ANALYSTS WHO SERVE THEM HAD ACCEPTED AN 'UNDERLYING MIND-SET' THAT INDIA WOULD NOT TEST ITS NUCLEAR WEAPONS AGAIN. SO THEY DID NOT RECOGNIZE THE SEA CHANGE WHEN THE NEW HINDU-NATIONALIST GOVERNMENT TOOK OFFICE WITH A PROMISE TO DEPLOY NUCLEAR WEAPONS. SENATOR BOB KERREY OF NEBRASKA, TOP DEMOCRAT ON THE SENATE INTELLIGENCE COMMITTEE, ADVOCATES A NUMBER OF USEFUL REFORMS. AMONG THEM: GIVE THE DIRECTOR OF CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE MORE AUTHORITY TO MANAGE THE WHOLE INTELLIGENCE COMMUNITY, SPREAD OVER SEVERAL AGENCIES. GIVE THE DIRECTOR CONTROL OVER THE ENTIRE INTELLIGENCE BUDGET AND MORE AUTHORITY TO SELECT INTELLIGENCE-AGENCY DIRECTORS. CREATE AN ASSISTANT DIRECTOR OF CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE FOR COLLECTION AND ANOTHER FOR ANALYSIS AND PRODUCTION, SUBJECT TO SENATE CONFIRMATION. RIGHT NOW, NO ONE IS IN CHAGE OF COORDINATING THE EFFORTS OF THE VARIOUS AGENCIES ....... BRING IN OUTSIDE ANALYSTS TO REVIEW C-I-A OPERATIONS, AS BUSINESSES DO WHEN THEY FIND THEMSELVES IN A RUT. STRIP SOME OF THE SECRECY FROM THE INTELLIGENCE EFFORT SO THAT AMERICANS KNOW BETTER WHAT THEY ARE PAYING FOR. BEGIN BY DECLASSIFYING THE JEREMIAH REPORT AND CONTINUE BY DECLASSIFYING THE ANNUAL INTELLIGENCE BUDGET. TEXT: "THE MONITOR" SAYS THE C-I-A MUST ENSURE THAT THERE IS NEVER ANOTHER SUPRISE NUCLEAR BLAST. "USA TODAY" SAYS THE AGENCY NEEDS BETTER MANAGEMENT, IN ORDER TO AVOID A SIMILAR FIASCO IN THE FUTURE. VOICE: THE AGENCY'S FUMBLING IN THESE MATTERS ISN'T ALL ITS OWN FAULT. THE C-I-A'S DIRECTORSHIP HAS BECOME A TURNSTILE, WITH FIVE DIRECTORS IN EIGHT YEARS, NONE LASTING LONG ENOUGH TO SEE ANY REFORM PROGRAM THROUGH. A BIG REASON FOR THE RAPID CHANGES IS THE FIGHTING BETWEEN CONGRESS AND THE WHITE HOUSE OVER WHO SHOULD BE IN CHARGE. NEITHER HAS MADE PROFESSIONAL MANAGEMENT ... A TOP PRIORITY. ..... THE INDIAN OVERSIGHT EXPOSED THE AGENCY'S ANALYSTS AS UNDERTRAINED, UNINCISIVE AND JUST PLAIN BLIND. THE ... ALDRICH AMES ....[RUSSIAN SPY] SCANDAL EXPOSED ASTONISHING BUNGLING IN THE MANAGEMENT OF SPIES. SO THE AGENCY HAS NOW PROVED INEPT BOTH AT GATHERING INTELLIGENCE AND AT ANALYZING IT. WHAT ELSE IS THERE? ... IT'S TIME THE AGENCY GOT REAL MANAGEMENT. TEXT: ON THAT NOTE, WE CONCLUDE THIS SAMPLING OF COMMENT ON THE FAILURE OF THE C-I-A TO PREDICT THE INDIAN NUCLEAR TEST PROGRAM, AND WHAT THE GOVERNMENT PROPOSES TO DO ABOUT IT. NEB/ANG/GE 09-Jun-98 3:00 PM EDT (1900 UTC) NNNN Source: Voice of America .