DATE=5/21/98
TYPE=BACKGROUND REPORT
NUMBER=5-40448
TITLE=CHINA-BURMA-INDIA INTELLIGENCE
BYLINE=DOUGLAS BAKSHIAN
DATELINE=NEW DELHI
CONTENT=
VOICED AT:
INTRO: INDIAN DEFENSE ANALYSTS SAY CHINA IS DEVELOPING A
PRESENCE ON ISLANDS OFF BURMA FOR ACCESS TO THE INDIAN OCEAN AND
WHAT WILL BE A VITAL TRADE ROUTE IN THE 21ST CENTURY. NEW DELHI
CORRESPONDENT DOUGLAS BAKSHIAN TALKS WITH INDIAN DEFENSE EXPERTS
ABOUT THE MATTER.
TEXT: EARLIER THIS MONTH, INDIAN DEFENSE MINISTER GEORGE
FERNANDES SAID A MASSIVE ELECTRONIC SURVEILLANCE ESTABLISHMENT TO
MONITOR INDIA HAS BEEN BUILT BY CHINA ON BURMA'S COCO ISLANDS.
HE TOLD A PRIVATE INDIAN TELEVISION CHANNEL THERE ARE MOVES TO
CONVERT THAT FACILITY INTO A MAJOR NAVAL BASE.
IN RESPONSE TO THE DEFENSE MINISTER'S STATEMENTS, CHINA DENIED
INVOLVEMENT IN OTHER COUNTRIES -- BUT IT DID NOT SPECIFICALLY
NAME BURMA.
DESPITE THE CHINESE DENIAL, A SENIOR INDIAN DEFENSE ANALYST SAYS
THERE IS SUBSTANTIAL EVIDENCE OF CHINESE ACTIVITY IN THE COCO
ISLANDS. THE DEPUTY DIRECTOR OF NEW DELHI'S INSTITUTE FOR
DEFENSE STUDIES AND ANALYSIS, COMMODORE UDAY BHASKAR, SAYS
CHINESE INVOLVEMENT HAS BEEN UNDERWAY FOR SOME TIME.
// BHASKAR ACT //
SPECIFIC TO THE COCOS ISLANDS THERE HAS BEEN A FAIR
AMOUNT OF EVIDENCE BOTH HUMAN, SIGINT (ELECTRONIC) AND
OTHERWISE WHICH SUGGESTED THAT THEY WERE SETTING UP
CERTAIN MONITORING FACILITIES AS PART OF CHINA'S LARGER
SIGINT INTELLIGENCE. SIGINT, AS YOU KNOW, IS SIGNAL
INTELLIGENCE (ELECTRONIC). SO THAT IS WHERE IT IS AT
THE MOMENT, WHICH IS THAT THERE HAS BEEN EVIDENCE,
FAIRLY IRREFUTABLE EVIDENCE, BOTH OF CHINESE NAVAL AND
MILITARY PRESENCE, PERSONNEL, AND A CERTAIN DEGREE OF
INFRASTRUCTURE IN HYANGYI (PORT), AND IN THE COCOS
ISLANDS, APART FROM THE OVERALL CHINESE PRESENCE IN
MYANMAR.
// END ACT //
MEANWHILE, INDIA'S RESPECTED "PIONEER" NEWSPAPER RECENTLY RAN A
DETAILED ARTICLE SAYING CHINESE NAVAL OFFICIALS ARE WORKING ON A
NUMBER OF BURMESE NAVAL BASES. THE PAPER, QUOTING SENIOR INDIAN
GOVERNMENT OFFICIALS, SAYS CHINESE VESSELS ARE ALSO VISITING
CERTAIN ISLANDS CLOSE TO THE INDIAN COAST TO MONITOR
COMMUNICATIONS.
THERE ARE DIFFERING VIEWS OF THE ARTICLE. P-R CHARI OF NEW
DELHI'S INSTITUTE OF PEACE AND CONFLICT STUDIES, SAYS THE
"PIONEER" STORY IS POLITICALLY MOTIVATED AND LINKED WITH INDIA'S
RECENT NUCLEAR TESTS.
// CHARI ACT //
THIS PIONEER REPORT, CAME OUT, AS I HEARD YOU, ON THE
10TH OF MAY, THE NUCLEAR EXPLOSIONS TOOK PLACE A DAY
LATER, AND I WOULD LIKE TO SEE THESE REPORTS AS PART OF
A CONCERTED EFFORT WHICH WAS BEING MADE BY THE
GOVERNMENT OF INDIA TO PLAY UP THE CHINESE THREAT.
// END ACT //
INDIA HAS MENTIONED SECURITY CONCERNS OVER CHINA AS ONE OF THE
REASONS CONTRIBUTING TO THE DECISION TO TEST NUCLEAR DEVICES.
INDIAN GOVERNMENT OFFICIALS WOULD NOT CONFIRM OR DENY THE
"PIONEER" STORY, BUT OTHER SOURCES LINKED TO THE INDIAN DEFENSE
ESTABLISHMENT SAY THE ACCOUNT IS ACCURATE.
MEANWHILE, CHINA IS PLAYING DOWN THE ARTICLE. A SPOKESMAN FOR
THE CHINESE EMBASSY IN NEW DELHI SAYS THE STORY IS NOTHING BUT
RUMORS.
// SPOKESMAN ACT //
ALL THE RUMORS CREATED BY THE INDIAN MEDIA SAYING CHINA
HAS GOT TROOPS IN BURMA, THAT IS TOTAL RUMOR.
// END ACT //
PUTTING RECENT EVENTS ASIDE, BOTH MR. CHARI AND COMMODORE BHASKER
SAY THE CHINESE, STARTING IN THE LATE 1980'S, DEVELOPED AN
INTEREST IN THE WATERS OFF BURMA AS THEY EXPANDED THEIR GLOBAL
INFLUENCE.
COMMODORE BHASKAR, WHO IS AN INDIAN NAVAL OFFICER ON ASSIGNMENT
TO THE DEFENSE INSTITUTE, SAYS THE CHINESE ACTIONS ARE NOT AIMED
AT INDIA ALONE, BUT ARE PART OF A REGIONAL STRATEGY. HE SAYS
CHINA WANTS ACCESS TO THE INDIAN OCEAN AND SURROUNDING WATERS
BECAUSE THE REGION PROVIDES A KEY OIL SUPPLY ROUTE TO EAST ASIA
-- AN AREA THAT IS BOOMING ECONOMICALLY AND WILL PLAY A KEY ROLE
IN THE 21ST CENTURY.
// BHASKAR ACT //
CHINA HAS, WHAT TO MY MIND IS AN OVERALL STRATEGIC GAME
PLAN, WHICH IS TO ENHANCE CHINESE PRESENCE, QUOTE
UNQUOTE, IN AREAS THAT IT DEEMS TO BE OF STRATEGIC
IMPORTANCE. AND TODAY IF YOU LOOK, CHINA LOOKING AT THE
WORLD FROM BEIJING, THERE ARE TWO AREAS THAT ARE OF
ENORMOUS STRATEGIC IMPORTANCE IN THE POST COLD-WAR
SCENARIO. ONE IS THE PERSIAN GULF BECAUSE OF ITS ENERGY
RESOURCES AND THE OTHER IS THE MALACCA STRAIGHTS (BY
MALAYSIA) BECAUSE THEY PROVIDE THE MARITIME CONDUIT FOR
ENERGY SUPPLIES TO COME OUT OF THE MIDDLE EAST AND
TRAVEL THE STRAIGHTS OF MALACCA AND GET INTO EAST ASIA.
// END ACT //
COMMODORE BHASKAR SAYS WHATEVER THE REASONS FOR THE CHINESE
PRESENCE IN THE AREA, THE DEVELOPMENT STILL HEIGHTENS INDIAN
CONCERNS. WHILE INDIA AND CHINA HAVE BEEN ON PEACEFUL TERMS IN
RECENT YEARS, THEY FOUGHT A BRIEF BORDER WAR IN 1962 IN WHICH
INDIA WAS BADLY DEFEATED. ANALYSTS SAY THE CONFLICT REMAINS
ETCHED IN THE INDIAN MEMORY AND FEARS OF CHINESE MILITARY MIGHT
PERSIST. (SIGNED)
NEB/DB/CB/RAE
21-May-98 8:38 AM EDT (1238 UTC)
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Source: Voice of America
.