DATE=4/14/98
TYPE=BACKGROUND REPORT
NUMBER=5-40045
TITLE=CIA/ENVIRONMENT
BYLINE=GREG FLAKUS
DATELINE=LOS ANGELES
CONTENT=
VOICED AT:
INTRO: AT THE RECENT SYMPOSIUM ON U-S MILITARY INVOLVEMENT IN
HUMANITARIAN ASSISTANCE AT CAMP PENDLETON MARINE BASE IN
CALIFORNIA, AN ANALYST FROM THE U-S CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY,
OR C-I-A, ARGUED THAT MANY OF THE THREATS TO WORLD PEACE TODAY
STEM FROM ENVIRONMENTAL PROBLEMS. V-O-A'S GREG FLAKUS HAS MORE
FROM OUR WEST COAST BUREAU.
TEXT: THE JOB OF THE C-I-A IS TO GATHER INFORMATION FROM AROUND
THE WORLD TO HELP POLICY MAKERS AND MILITARY PLANNERS IN
WASHINGTON. WHILE MOST OF THE SPY AGENCY'S FOCUS IS ON
POLITICAL AND ECONOMIC ISSUES, THERE IS AN INCREASING EMPHASIS ON
THE ENVIRONMENT.
TERRY FLANNERY WORKS AT THE C-I-A'S ENVIRONMENTAL CENTER NEAR
LANGLEY, VIRGINIA. HE TOLD THE CAMP PENDLETON HUMANITARIAN
ASSISTANCE CONFERENCE THAT INDONESIA IS A NATION WITH ECONOMIC
AND SOCIAL TENSIONS THAT COULD BE MADE WORSE BY CURRENT DROUGHT
CONDITIONS AND WIDESPREAD FIRES.
/// FLANNERY ACT ///
OUR CONCERNS ARE THAT WITH THE ENVIRONMENTAL PROBLEMS
THEY HAVE HAD, WITH THE FIRES WHICH ARE STILL GOING, THE
ECONOMIC PROBLEMS WHICH ARE NOW FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT--
THAT THESE THINGS WILL EXACERBATE SOME UNDERLYING
PROBLEMS WITH RELIGIOUS DIFFERENCES AND A SENSE THAT THE
OUTLYING ISLANDS ARE NOT REALLY PART OF THE CENTRAL
GOVERNMENT AND THAT KIND OF TENSION CAN QUICKLY
DETERIORATE INTO CONFLICT, EVEN CIVIL WAR. WHEN THOSE
KINDS OF THINGS HAPPEN, THEN THE U-S MILITARY GETS
INVOLVED, PARTICULARLY, IN THIS CASE, IF SHIPPING WERE
THREATENED.
/// END ACT ///
MR FLANNERY SAYS JAPAN AND CHINA BOTH CONSIDER THE SHIPPING
THROUGH THE STRAITS NEAR INDONESIA VITAL TO THEIR INTERESTS AND
WOULD LIKELY CALL ON THE UNITED STATES FOR HELP IF A THREAT TO
SHIPPING SHOULD OCCUR. HE DID NOT PREDICT THAT SUCH A CRISIS
WOULD DEVELOP, BUT HE SAID THE SITUATION REQUIRES CLOSE
ATTENTION.
AN EVEN GREATER THREAT, LONG TERM, MAY BE POSED BY CHINA'S
GROWING POPULATION AND RAPIDLY EXPANDING ECONOMY, ACCORDING TO
THE CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY ANALYST. TERRY FLANNERY SAYS THE
MASSIVE BURNING OF FOSSIL FUELS IN INEFFICIENT PLANTS IS A SOURCE
OF IRRITATION FOR ITS NEIGHBORS AND AN EVENTUAL PROBLEM FOR THE
WORLD'S ECOLOGY AS A WHOLE.
/// FLANNERY ACT # 2 ///
CHINA RIGHT NOW USES COAL FOR ABOUT 75 PERCENT OF ITS
ENERGY. THEY ARE INDUSTRIALIZING, THEY ARE MODERNIZING,
THEY ARE GROWING AND WE SEE NO NEAR-TERM SOLUTIONS TO
THEIR ENVIRONMENTAL PROBLEMS. THAT IS, THEY ARE GOING
TO HAVE TO USE COAL (AS AN ENERGY SOURCE) AND WITH THIS
USE OF COAL THEY ARE GOING TO POLLUTE A LOT. THAT
POLLUTION AFFECTS NOT JUST THE HEALTH OF THEIR PEOPLE,
WHICH IS SIGNIFICANT, BUT IT ALSO DECREASES THEIR
AGRICULTURE AND IT IS GOING TO CAUSE, AT SOME POINT,
TENSION WITH THEIR NEIGHBORS.
/// END ACT ///
MR FLANNERY SAYS U-S INTELLIGENCE ANALYSTS ARE NOT MONITORING
ENVIRONMENTAL PROBLEMS AROUND THE WORLD SIMPLY AS PASSIVE
OBSERVERS. HE SAYS U-S POLITICAL AND MILITARY LEADERS CAN PLAY
A ROLE IN PREVENTING CRISES CAUSED BY ENVIRONMENTAL PROBLEMS IN
CHINA AND ELSEWHERE.
/// FLANNERY ACT #3 ///
THE GOOD NEWS IS WE CAN HELP. I THINK THE BEST WAY WE
CAN HELP IS BY MAKING THEM AWARE OF THE PROBLEMS THEY
HAVE. I THINK IF THE UNITED STATES AND ITS ALLIES
PRESENT TO THEM WHAT WE THINK THEIR PROBLEMS ARE AND
SHOW THEM THE THINGS THAT WORK AND DO NOT WORK FOR US,
THEY ACTUALLY DO PAY ATTENTION. WE ARE NOT VIEWED AS
HOSTILE, NECESSARILY.
/// END ACT ///
MR FLANNERY SAYS THE INCREASING EVIDENCE OF GLOBAL WARMING IS
ALSO DRIVING WORLD LEADERS TO SEEK SOLUTIONS TO AIR POLLUTION
PROBLEMS IN PARTICULAR. HE SAYS THE ENVIRONMENTAL CHALLENGES
FACING HUMANKIND WILL REQUIRE AN ENORMOUS COOPERATIVE EFFORT ON
THE PART OF GOVERNMENTS WORLDWIDE IN THE YEARS TO COME. (SIGNED)
NEB/PT
14-Apr-98 4:33 PM EDT (2033 UTC)
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Source: Voice of America
.