DATE=4/1/98
TYPE=BACKGROUND REPORT
NUMBER=5-39443
TITLE=CUBA REPORT/REACT
BYLINE=BILL RODGERS
DATELINE=WASHINGTON
CONTENT=
VOICED AT:
INTRO: THE TINY, BUT INFLUENTIAL, GROUP OF CUBAN AMERICAN
LAWMAKERS IN CONGRESS IS REACTING ANGRILY TO A PENTAGON
ASSESSMENT THAT CUBA NO LONGER REPRESENTS A NATIONAL SECURITY
THREAT TO THE UNITED STATES. THE LAWMAKERS MAINTAIN CUBA'S
COMMUNIST GOVERNMENT CONTINUES TO POSE A SERIOUS DANGER, BUT
MILITARY EXPERTS DISAGREE. V-O-A'S BILL RODGERS TAKES A LOOK AT
THE ISSUE AND HAS THIS REPORT.
TEXT: THE DEFENSE DEPARTMENT'S ASSESSMENT ON CUBA, WHICH HAS
BEEN LEAKED TO THE PRESS, HAS ALREADY DRAWN A STRONG DENUNCIATION
FROM CUBAN-AMERICAN LAWMAKERS AND OTHER MEMBERS OF CONGRESS. THE
CLASSIFIED STUDY -- COMMISSIONED BY THE SENATE -- REPORTEDLY
CONCLUDES THAT CUBA DOES NOT REPRESENT A NATIONAL SECURITY
THREAT TO THE UNITED STATES. PENTAGON SPOKESMEN HAVE REFUSED
SPECIFIC COMMENT ON THE ASSESSMENT, BUT SAY EARLIER STUDIES HAVE
REACHED SIMILAR FINDINGS.
THE ASSESSMENT REPORTEDLY SAYS THAT CUBA'S MILITARY -- NUMBERING
SOME 100-THOUSAND MEN AND WOMEN -- IS SMALLER THAN DURING THE
COLD WAR AND IS NOW GEARED TOWARD A DEFENSIVE ROLE. THE STUDY
SAYS THE SERVICES -- ARMY, NAVY, AND AIR FORCE -- SUFFER FROM
SEVERE SHORTAGES OF FUEL AND SPARE PARTS.
BUT CUBAN-AMERICAN LAWMAKERS REJECT THESE CONCLUSIONS. FLORIDA
REPUBLICAN ILEANA ROS-LEHTINEN NOTES THAT DESPITE A SHORTAGE OF
SPARE PARTS, CUBAN MIGS WERE ABLE TO SHOOT DOWN TWO UNARMED
CIVILIAN PLANES IN 1996, KILLING THE FOUR CUBAN-AMERICAN PILOTS.
AT A NEWS CONFERENCE THIS WEEK, MS. ROS-LEHTINEN SHARPLY
CRITICIZED THE REPORT'S AUTHORS FOR NOT CONSIDERING OTHER FACTORS
IN MAKING THEIR ASSESSMENT.
/// ROS-LEHTINEN ///
HOW ABOUT THE DRUG TRAFFICKERS WE HAVE FILMED ACTUALLY
ENTERING INTO CUBAN WATERS TO EVADE OUR D-E-A PATROL
BOATS? AND ASK WHAT IS GOING ON WITH THE LOURDES (IN
CUBA) INTELLIGENCE CENTER THAT EVEN HAD OUR U-S MILITARY
PLANS ABOUT THE PERSIAN GULF MILITARY INVASION, AND WHAT
ABOUT ALL THE GUERRILLA GROUPS CASTRO HAS SUPPORTED IN
LATIN AMERICA -- AND STILL YOU WOULD CONCLUDE THAT THIS
NO LONGER POSES A THREAT TO THE UNITED STATES? SHAME ON
THOSE INDIVIDUALS (WHO WROTE THE REPORT) AND I WOULD
LIKE THEM TO MEET WITH THE FAMILIES OF THOSE FOUR FALLEN
PILOTS AND TELL THEM CASTRO IS NO THREAT TO THEIR
SAFETY.
/// END ACT ///
IN A LETTER TO DEFENSE SECRETARY WILLIAM COHEN, CONGRESSWOMAN
ROS-LEHTINEN AND EIGHT OTHER LAWMAKERS EXPRESSED CONCERN ABOUT
THE STILL-UNPUBLISHED PENTAGON ASSESSMENT. THEY WARNED THAT CUBA
COULD DEVELOP BIOLOGICAL AND CHEMICAL WEAPONS, IN ADDITION TO
POSING OTHER DANGERS FOR THE UNITED STATES.
BUT MANY MILITARY EXPERTS AND CUBA SPECIALISTS DISAGREE.
RECENTLY RETIRED MARINE GENERAL JOHN SHEEHAN WAS IN CUBA LAST
MONTH AND SAYS NOTHING HE SAW CAUSED HIM CONCERN.
///SHEEHAN ACT///
THEIR STRATEGY, THEIR ORGANIZATION, THEIR WHOLE THEORY
IS A DEFENSIVE CONCEPT.
///END ACT///
//OPT// GENERAL SHEEHAN, WHO UNTIL LAST SEPTEMBER WAS HEAD OF THE
U-S SOUTHERN COMMAND, ALSO TOLD REPORTERS HE HAS SEEN NO EVIDENCE
-- EITHER ON THE GROUND OR FROM INTELLIGENCE REPORTS -- THAT CUBA
IS WORKING ON BIOLOGICAL WEAPONS. //END OPT//
A SPECIALIST ON THE CUBAN MILITARY, FORMER NAVAL WAR COLLEGE
PROFESSOR RAYMOND DUNCAN, NOTES THAT CUBA'S MILITARY CAPABILITIES
ALSO ARE HAMPERED BY THE POOR STATE OF THE ECONOMY.
///DUNCAN ACT///
THE ECONOMY IS NOT THERE TO SUPPORT THEM. IN OTHER
WORDS, YOU NEED A STRONG INDUSTRIAL BASE TO SUPPORT A
MILITARY AND THEY DON'T HAVE IT.
///END ACT///
BUT CUBAN-AMERICAN LAWMAKERS AND OTHERS ON CAPITOL HILL CONTINUE
TO WARN AGAINST ANY PENTAGON REVISION OF CUBA'S MILITARY THREAT.
CONGRESSMAN LINCOLN DIAZ-BALART TOLD REPORTERS THIS WEEK HE
BELIEVES THE PENTAGON ASSESSMENT IS PART OF AN OVERALL STRATEGY
BY THE CLINTON ADMINISTRATION TO SOFTEN U-S POLICY TOWARD CUBA.
/// DIAZ-BALART SPANISH ACT ///
SPECIALISTS LIKE RAYMOND DUNCAN AGREE THE NEW PENTAGON REPORT MAY
HAVE BROADER POLICY IMPLICATIONS -- AND EVENTUALLY HAVE AN IMPACT
ON THE LONGSTANDING U-S ECONOMIC EMBARGO AGAINST CUBA.
///DUNCAN ACT///
IF THE PENTAGON MAKES A NATIONAL SECURITY ASSESSMENT AND
SAYS THAT CUBA IS NO LONGER A SECURITY THREAT, THEN WHY
HAVE AN ECONOMIC EMBARGO LAW? IT WOULDN'T MAKE A LOT OF
SENSE, IT WOULDN'T SEEM. THAT (THE EMBARGO) IS IN PLACE
BECAUSE OF THE UNDERLYING ASSUMPTION THAT IT IS A
SECURITY THREAT, SO YOU NEED AN EMBARGO TO KIND OF
CONTAIN IT.
///END ACT///
CLINTON ADMINISTRATION SAYS THE ECONOMIC SANCTIONS AGAINST CUBA
ARE PART OF A BROADER POLICY TO ENCOURAGED DEMOCRACY THERE.
THE DEFENSE DEPARTMENT WAS SCHEDULED TO RELEASE ITS ASSESSMENT ON
TUESDAY. BUT THE WASHINGTON POST NEWSPAPER REPORTS IT WAS
DELAYED SO THAT STRONGER LANGUAGE COULD BE ADDED TO BRING IT IN
LINE WITH THE TOUGH U-S POLICY AGAINST CUBA. PENTAGON SPOKESMEN
HAVE DENIED THIS.
///REST OPT///
MEANWHILE, CUBA'S TOP DIPLOMAT IN WASHINGTON, FERNANDO REMIREZ,
SAYS HIS COUNTRY IS NOT A THREAT TO THE UNITED STATES. HE TOLD
REPORTERS THIS WEEK THAT IF THE PENTAGON REPORT REACHES THIS
CONCLUSION -- IT WILL REFLECT REALITY. (SIGNED)
NEB/WFR/JO
01-Apr-98 4:35 PM EST (2135 UTC)
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Source: Voice of America
.