DATE= 12/3/97

TYPE=BACKGROUND REPORT

NUMBER=5-38276

TITLE=YEARENDER: MIDEAST TERROR '97

BYLINE=DOUGLAS ROBERTS

DATELINE=CAIRO

CONTENT=

VOICED AT:



INTRO:  ISLAMIST EXTREMISTS CONTINUED THEIR REIGN OF TERROR IN

ALGERIA IN 1997, AND THERE WERE ALSO BLOODY TERRORIST ATTACKS IN

EGYPT.  MIDDLE EAST CORRESPONDENT DOUGLAS ROBERTS REVIEWS THE

YEAR IN THIS REPORT FROM CAIRO.



TEXT:   /// ACT, MESSAOUD BAYESH, IN ARABIC -- ESTABLISH AND FADE

///



FORTY-FIVE-YEAR OLD ALGERIAN SCHOOLTEACHER MESSAOUD BAYESH SHOWS

A VISITOR THE RUBBLE OF HIS HOME IN THE FARMING VILLAGE OF SIDI

REIS, A FEW KILOMETERS SOUTH OF ALGIERS.  MR. BAYESH'S WIFE WAS

AMONG MORE THAN 500 VILLAGERS SLAUGHTERED THAT NIGHT IN AUGUST BY

ALGERIAN FANATICS CALLED THE ARMED ISLAMIC GROUP.



THE CASUALTY TOLL WAS THE HIGHEST FOR ANY SINGLE ATTACK SINCE THE

COUNTRY'S ISLAMIST INSURGENCY BEGAN MORE THAN FIVE YEARS AGO.

1997 WAS A PARTICULARLY BLOODY YEAR.



THE TERRORISTS STAGED DOZENS OF RAIDS IN THE FERTILE FARM BELT

SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL.  SOME OF THE TARGETS WERE WITHIN WALKING

DISTANCE OF POLICE AND ARMY BASES, OTHERS WITHIN SITE OF THE

ALGIERS' SKYLINE.  ALL WERE MARKED BY BRUTALITY; IN MOST CASES,

THE VICTIMS WERE HACKED, SLASHED OR STABBED TO DEATH.



ANALYSTS LIKE BRAD DILMAN, OF THE AMERICAN UNIVERSITY OF CAIRO,

WERE AT A LOSS TO EXPLAIN THE MOTIVE FOR SUCH SAVAGERY.



                       /// DILMAN ACT ///



         //OPT//  AND THAT FOR ME IS THE QUESTION I FIND

         DIFFICULT GETTING AN ANSWER TO, BECAUSE IT IS  NOT

         CLEAR.  //END OPT //

         IF ONE IS TRYING TO GAIN SUPPORTERS IN SOCIETY, THIS IS

         CERTAINLY  NOT  THE WAY TO DO IT.  IN FACT, THIS IS

         LIKELY TO ALIENATE POTENTIAL SUPPORTERS FOR THESE

         RADICAL ISLAMISTS.  OTHER THAN PERHAPS DEMONSTRATING

         THAT THE GOVERNMENT DOES  NOT  COMPLETELY CONTROL

         SECURITY IN THE SOCIETY, I DO  NOT  SEE WHAT IS TO BE

         GAINED BY SUCH BRUTALITY.



                         /// END ACT ///



PROFESSOR DILMAN SPECULATES THE TERRORISTS WERE SIMPLY INTENDING

TO SHOCK ALGERIANS, IN A BID TO POLARIZE SOCIETY AND ERODE

SUPPORT FOR THE GOVERNMENT.



ANALYSTS SAW SIMILAR MOTIVES BEHIND WHAT PROVED TO BE THE WORST

SINGLE TERRORIST ATTACK IN EGYPT.  IT HAPPENED IN NOVEMBER AT THE

PHARAONIC TEMPLE OF QUEEN HATSHEPSUT IN THE NILE-SIDE TOWN OF

LUXOR.



SIX GUNMEN OPENED FIRE ON GROUPS OF TOURISTS PREPARING TO ENTER

THE ANCIENT TEMPLE.  FIFTY-EIGHT FOREIGNERS AND FOUR EGYPTIANS

WERE KILLED.  THE SIX GUNMEN WERE LATER KILLED BY EGYPTIAN

SECURITY FORCES.



THE MASSACRE IN LUXOR AND A SEPTEMBER ATTACK OUTSIDE THE CAIRO

MUSEUM THAT LEFT NINE GERMAN VISITORS DEAD PROVED A DEATH BLOW

FOR EGYPT'S TOURISM INDUSTRY.



EGYPTIAN ACADEMIC SAAD EL-DIN IBRAHIM BELIEVES THAT MAY HAVE BEEN

ONE OF THE AIMS OF THE FANATICS OF EGYPT'S ISLAMIC GROUP, AND IT

WAS ACHIEVED AT RELATIVELY LOW COST.



                      /// IBRAHIM ACT ///



         SO SIX PEOPLE MANAGED TO KILL 60 PEOPLE.  PROBABLY WITH

         A COUPLE-OF-THOUSAND DOLLARS COST OF FIREARMS AND

         MACHINE GUNS AND KNIVES, THEY WILL COST EGYPT

         ONE-BILLION DOLLARS IN TOURIST REVENUES IN THE NEXT

         THREE MONTHS, THAT IS THE HEIGHT OF THE SEASON.



                         /// END ACT ///



THE EGYPTIAN AND ALGERIAN GOVERNMENTS RESPONDED TO THE YEAR'S

TERRORIST OUTRAGES WITH STEPPED-UP SECURITY MEASURES AND AN

INTENSIFIED MANHUNT FOR THE ISLAMIST FANATICS.



PROFESSOR DILMAN SEES  NO  EARLY END TO THE VIOLENCE IN ALGERIA,

BUT HE BELIEVES THE EGYPTIAN GOVERNMENT WILL BE MORE SUCCESSFUL,

AT LEAST IN THE SHORT TERM.



                    /// SECOND DILMAN ACT ///



         THE GOVERNMENT IN EGYPT IS MUCH MORE STABLE, IF YOU

         WILL, AND EXERCISES A GREAT DEAL MORE CONTROL OVER THE

         NATION'S TERRITORY.  AND I THINK FIGHTING TERRORISM IN

         EGYPT IS MUCH DIFFERENT FROM FIGHTING A CIVIL WAR OR

         MASS CIVIL UNREST IN ALGERIA.  SO I THINK THE TASK THAT

         THE EGYPTIAN GOVERNMENT FACES IS MUCH LESS DAUNTING THAN

         IN ALGERIA.



                         /// END ACT ///



PROFESSOR DILMAN AND MANY OTHER ANALYSTS IN THE REGION BELIEVE

BOTH THE ALGERIAN AND EGYPTIAN GOVERNMENTS MUST DO MORE TO

RESOLVE THE UNDERLYING POLITICAL, ECONOMIC, AND SOCIAL PROBLEMS

THAT BREED SUPPORT FOR THE ISLAMIST EXTREMISTS.  THESE ANALYSTS

SAY IF THE PROBLEMS REMAIN, IT IS NOT A QUESTION OF WHETHER THERE

WILL BE MORE TERRORIST INCIDENTS; IT IS ONLY A QUESTION OF WHEN.

(SIGNED)



NEB/DBR/PCF/RAE



03-Dec-97 7:47 AM EST (1247 UTC)

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Source: Voice of America

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