DATE= 12/3/97

TYPE=BACKGROUND REPORT

NUMBER=5-38276

TITLE=YEARENDER: MIDEAST TERROR '97

BYLINE=DOUGLAS ROBERTS

DATELINE=CAIRO

CONTENT=

VOICED AT: 



INTRO:  ISLAMIST EXTREMISTS CONTINUED THEIR REIGN OF TERROR IN 

ALGERIA IN 1997, AND THERE WERE ALSO BLOODY TERRORIST ATTACKS IN 

EGYPT.  MIDDLE EAST CORRESPONDENT DOUGLAS ROBERTS REVIEWS THE 

YEAR IN THIS REPORT FROM CAIRO.



TEXT:   /// ACT, MESSAOUD BAYESH, IN ARABIC -- ESTABLISH AND FADE

///



FORTY-FIVE-YEAR OLD ALGERIAN SCHOOLTEACHER MESSAOUD BAYESH SHOWS 

A VISITOR THE RUBBLE OF HIS HOME IN THE FARMING VILLAGE OF SIDI 

REIS, A FEW KILOMETERS SOUTH OF ALGIERS.  MR. BAYESH'S WIFE WAS 

AMONG MORE THAN 500 VILLAGERS SLAUGHTERED THAT NIGHT IN AUGUST BY

ALGERIAN FANATICS CALLED THE ARMED ISLAMIC GROUP.



THE CASUALTY TOLL WAS THE HIGHEST FOR ANY SINGLE ATTACK SINCE THE

COUNTRY'S ISLAMIST INSURGENCY BEGAN MORE THAN FIVE YEARS AGO.  

1997 WAS A PARTICULARLY BLOODY YEAR.



THE TERRORISTS STAGED DOZENS OF RAIDS IN THE FERTILE FARM BELT 

SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL.  SOME OF THE TARGETS WERE WITHIN WALKING 

DISTANCE OF POLICE AND ARMY BASES, OTHERS WITHIN SITE OF THE 

ALGIERS' SKYLINE.  ALL WERE MARKED BY BRUTALITY; IN MOST CASES, 

THE VICTIMS WERE HACKED, SLASHED OR STABBED TO DEATH.



ANALYSTS LIKE BRAD DILMAN, OF THE AMERICAN UNIVERSITY OF CAIRO, 

WERE AT A LOSS TO EXPLAIN THE MOTIVE FOR SUCH SAVAGERY.



                       /// DILMAN ACT ///



         //OPT//  AND THAT FOR ME IS THE QUESTION I FIND 

         DIFFICULT GETTING AN ANSWER TO, BECAUSE IT IS  NOT  

         CLEAR.  //END OPT //  

         IF ONE IS TRYING TO GAIN SUPPORTERS IN SOCIETY, THIS IS 

         CERTAINLY  NOT  THE WAY TO DO IT.  IN FACT, THIS IS 

         LIKELY TO ALIENATE POTENTIAL SUPPORTERS FOR THESE 

         RADICAL ISLAMISTS.  OTHER THAN PERHAPS DEMONSTRATING 

         THAT THE GOVERNMENT DOES  NOT  COMPLETELY CONTROL 

         SECURITY IN THE SOCIETY, I DO  NOT  SEE WHAT IS TO BE 

         GAINED BY SUCH BRUTALITY.



                         /// END ACT ///



PROFESSOR DILMAN SPECULATES THE TERRORISTS WERE SIMPLY INTENDING 

TO SHOCK ALGERIANS, IN A BID TO POLARIZE SOCIETY AND ERODE 

SUPPORT FOR THE GOVERNMENT.



ANALYSTS SAW SIMILAR MOTIVES BEHIND WHAT PROVED TO BE THE WORST 

SINGLE TERRORIST ATTACK IN EGYPT.  IT HAPPENED IN NOVEMBER AT THE

PHARAONIC TEMPLE OF QUEEN HATSHEPSUT IN THE NILE-SIDE TOWN OF 

LUXOR.



SIX GUNMEN OPENED FIRE ON GROUPS OF TOURISTS PREPARING TO ENTER 

THE ANCIENT TEMPLE.  FIFTY-EIGHT FOREIGNERS AND FOUR EGYPTIANS 

WERE KILLED.  THE SIX GUNMEN WERE LATER KILLED BY EGYPTIAN 

SECURITY FORCES.



THE MASSACRE IN LUXOR AND A SEPTEMBER ATTACK OUTSIDE THE CAIRO 

MUSEUM THAT LEFT NINE GERMAN VISITORS DEAD PROVED A DEATH BLOW 

FOR EGYPT'S TOURISM INDUSTRY.



EGYPTIAN ACADEMIC SAAD EL-DIN IBRAHIM BELIEVES THAT MAY HAVE BEEN

ONE OF THE AIMS OF THE FANATICS OF EGYPT'S ISLAMIC GROUP, AND IT 

WAS ACHIEVED AT RELATIVELY LOW COST.



                      /// IBRAHIM ACT /// 



         SO SIX PEOPLE MANAGED TO KILL 60 PEOPLE.  PROBABLY WITH 

         A COUPLE-OF-THOUSAND DOLLARS COST OF FIREARMS AND 

         MACHINE GUNS AND KNIVES, THEY WILL COST EGYPT 

         ONE-BILLION DOLLARS IN TOURIST REVENUES IN THE NEXT 

         THREE MONTHS, THAT IS THE HEIGHT OF THE SEASON.



                         /// END ACT ///



THE EGYPTIAN AND ALGERIAN GOVERNMENTS RESPONDED TO THE YEAR'S 

TERRORIST OUTRAGES WITH STEPPED-UP SECURITY MEASURES AND AN 

INTENSIFIED MANHUNT FOR THE ISLAMIST FANATICS.



PROFESSOR DILMAN SEES  NO  EARLY END TO THE VIOLENCE IN ALGERIA, 

BUT HE BELIEVES THE EGYPTIAN GOVERNMENT WILL BE MORE SUCCESSFUL, 

AT LEAST IN THE SHORT TERM.



                    /// SECOND DILMAN ACT ///



         THE GOVERNMENT IN EGYPT IS MUCH MORE STABLE, IF YOU 

         WILL, AND EXERCISES A GREAT DEAL MORE CONTROL OVER THE 

         NATION'S TERRITORY.  AND I THINK FIGHTING TERRORISM IN 

         EGYPT IS MUCH DIFFERENT FROM FIGHTING A CIVIL WAR OR 

         MASS CIVIL UNREST IN ALGERIA.  SO I THINK THE TASK THAT 

         THE EGYPTIAN GOVERNMENT FACES IS MUCH LESS DAUNTING THAN

         IN ALGERIA.



                         /// END ACT ///



PROFESSOR DILMAN AND MANY OTHER ANALYSTS IN THE REGION BELIEVE 

BOTH THE ALGERIAN AND EGYPTIAN GOVERNMENTS MUST DO MORE TO 

RESOLVE THE UNDERLYING POLITICAL, ECONOMIC, AND SOCIAL PROBLEMS 

THAT BREED SUPPORT FOR THE ISLAMIST EXTREMISTS.  THESE ANALYSTS 

SAY IF THE PROBLEMS REMAIN, IT IS NOT A QUESTION OF WHETHER THERE

WILL BE MORE TERRORIST INCIDENTS; IT IS ONLY A QUESTION OF WHEN. 

(SIGNED)



NEB/DBR/PCF/RAE



03-Dec-97 7:47 AM EST (1247 UTC)

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Source: Voice of America

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