ACCESSION NUMBER:00000
FILE ID:96020501.POL
DATE:02/05/96
TITLE:05-02-96  NEW REPORT SAYS INTELLIGENCE GATHERING REMAINS CRITICAL NEED

TEXT:
(Still required by policymakers, military operations) (760)
By Jacquelyn S. Porth
USIA Security Affairs Writer

Washington -- In a major post-Cold War review of the U.S. intelligence
community, a key task force finds that effective intelligence
gathering "will continue to prove critical in helping government
officials fashion and implement policy in non-military realms that
affect national security."

The independent task force, sponsored by the non-profit Council on
Foreign Relations, concluded that however "the ultimate personality of
the current phase of international relations" plays out, the future
"will not be an age of global peace and security." Effective
intelligence, therefore, will be essential for the U.S. military to
cope with challenges resulting not only from aggression but from "the
breakdown of empires and states."

The task force, composed of 25 former administration and military
officials as well as academics and business leaders, will release its
findings February 12 in a report entitled: "Making Intelligence
Smarter: The Future of U.S. Intelligence." A pre-publication version
was made available to USIA.

The report says the need for intelligence has not disappeared with the
advent of new sources of open information, intelligence being rarely
available through either the "information superhighway" or via
commercial satellite imagery.

It is still important to learn about "the intentions and capabilities
of rogue states and terrorists, the proliferation of unconventional
weapons, and the disposition of potentially hostile military forces,"
the report asserts, all of which "can only be identified, monitored,
and measured through dedicated intelligence assets." Intelligence
exists "to enhance U.S. national security by informing policymakers
and supporting military operations," it says.

The need to collect and assess information isn't fading, the task
force members concluded after meeting throughout most of 1995.
"Accurate intelligence significantly enhances the effectiveness of
diplomatic and military undertakings; while good intelligence cannot
guarantee good policy, poor intelligence frequently contribute to
policy failure."

The report also argues that covert action "is an important national
security tool" that can give policymakers "a valuable alternative or
complement to other policies, including diplomacy, sanctions and
military intervention." Nurturing that clandestine capability should
be one of the intelligence community's "highest priorities," it says.

The report says support for military operations "drives current
intelligence policy more than any other single factor." Intelligence
can affect weapons procurement, military planning, training and
deployment, as well as target planning.

"The devotion of intelligence to military uses also reflects the
increasing frequency with which the military is being called upon by
policymakers, in situations ranging from countering classic aggression
to dealing with the humanitarian problems caused by failed states and
civil war," the report notes.

At the same time the study warns of the danger that spending on
intelligence to support military operations "will take priority over
other important or even vital national security" requirements. Two
task force members, for example, footnoted the report by observing
that "the U.S. military has increasingly dominated the intelligence
process."

Identifying likely future intelligence collection priorities the
report lists:

-- the status of nuclear weapons and materials throughout the former
Soviet Union;

-- political and military developments in Iraq, Iran and North Korea;

-- potential terrorist threats against U.S. targets domestically and
abroad;

-- unconventional weapons proliferation; and

-- political-military developments in the People's Republic of China.

In a less pressing category, it says the intelligence community should
focus on:

-- political developments in Russia and its relations with other
former Soviet Republics;

-- the stability of Mexico, Egypt and Saudi Arabia;

-- Indo-Pakistan relations;

-- developments tied to the Middle East peace process;

-- political and military activities in Bosnia and the Balkans; and

-- the activities of international criminal activities.

The report, of which Council on Foreign Relations director of national
security programs Richard Haass is a co-author, stresses that the
leadership of the intelligence community "should reinforce the ethic
that speaking the truth to those in power is required" and that they
should defend anyone who is criticized for doing so.

In addition, the task force describes congressional oversight of the
intelligence community as "essential in a democracy." The report
argues for making parts of the annual intelligence budget request --
as well as an outline of the basic elements of the broad intelligence
program -- public.

The report concludes that there will not be a large financial
post-Cold War "peace dividend" in the field of intelligence because
modern systems for intelligence gathering are expensive and "the
demands on the intelligence community from policymakers and the
military to collect and assess information for a wide array of tasks
are growing."
NNNN