SLIDE 10: STEP 4 * 4. List Known Critical Events and Decision Points.

SLIDE 11: CRITICAL EVENTS Critical Events Include:

OFFENSE

Passage of Lines

Breaching of main obstacle belt

Penetration of defensive positions and/or belts

Reaction to counterattack forces

River Crossing

Seizing the objective

Use of Reserves

Deep Operations

DEFENSE

Deep Operations

Destruction of first-echelon forces

Destruction of follow-on forces

Commitment of counterattack forces or reserve

Battle Handover

Other critical events and decision points may be determined during the wargame. For instance, if we are defending, critical events we have listed for the offense when taken from the enemy perspective may be points of vulnerability for the enemy that are critical to us as well.

There will be times when the list of critical events and decision points may be too long to manage. The analyst must then reduce the list to one that is manageable in the time available for war gaming. This process requires military judgement to determine which have the highest probability of changing the outcome of the battle and then restricting the wargame to only those key critical events and decision points. The critical events are what we will wargame. The implication is that events in between critical events will work out well if the critical events are taken care of properly. These are the points at which we will focus our synchronization efforts.

SLIDE 12: STEP 5 * 5. Select a Wargame Method. In previous classes (Course of Action Development) we talked about the three methods:

2) Belt

3) Box

SLIDE 13: AVENUE IN DEPTH 1) Avenue-in-depth

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We use this method to look at all the forces that will attack our forces along a particular avenue of approach. This includes all reinforcements.

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SLIDE 14: BELT 2) Belt

We use the belt method to look at all the forces at a particular time in the battlefield. What is happening at H hour? What is the force ratio at H+1? This allows the commander to look at all the forces that will be moving into his sector at any time.

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SLIDE 15: BOX 3) Box

We use the Box method when we want to concentrate on a small portion of the battlefield. This allows the commander to look closely at individual critical events.

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SLIDE 16: STEP 6 * 6. Select a Technique to Record and Display the Results.

Narrative: Describes the sequence of events in sentence form.

Sketch: Describes the sequence of events in in a series of brief notes concerning critical locations, requirements, or tasks.

We are going to use the DST as our technique of recording and displaying results. To do that we will make some minor modifications. First, in order to be ready for the Wargame, the S2 should have the following posted to the DST:

• Time Phase Lines
  
  • Known Decision Points
  • The Enemy Situation
  • The Synchronization Matrix

  We will have him modify the synchronization matrix (prior to the wargame) by adding the following two lines to the top:
  

  • Enemy Reaction
  • Critical Events

  At the beginning of the wargame, the S3 will name the critical events to be wargamed. The recorder (Asst S3, or S2) will write the name of each critical event under the TPL the corresponds to when we expect that event to take place. The S3 will also name the wargaming method at this point.

  
  

SLIDE 17: STEP 7 (2) Wargaming: Wargaming consists of considering three elements:

• ACTION: Identify what friendly maneuver forces are doing: Attacking, defending with a certain number and type of companies.
• REACTION: Identify what the opposing force is doing in relation to the action above. Look at all of the opposing force's committed and reinforcing forces and consider all of his combat multipliers. Don't read "reaction" as things he is doing because we are taking the action above; read it "in relation to friendly action." In one sense reaction is action from the enemy standpoint.
  • COUNTERACTION: Identify those actions friendly forces will take in reaction to the enemy reaction. Ask, "What combat multipliers will we use to improve our force ratios?"
  • RESULTS OF THE WARGAME:
    • Refinements or modifications to the course of action. Changes in composition and location of main effort to improve force ratios. Changes in the use of reserves. Adjustments to control measures to focus combat power at critical points and times.
    • Tasks to subordinate units.
    • An estimate of battle duration at each critical event and for the entire battle.
    • Advantages and Disadvantages of a particular course of action.
    • An estimate of kilometer loss or gain.
    • A projection of the percentage of total enemy force defeated in each critical event and overall.
    • Additional critical events.
    • Identification of required use of other combat capabilities.
    • Nuclear and/or chemical effects.
    • Additional requirements for combat support.
    • Requirements for deception and surprise.

  • Branches: Branches result from wargaming a friendly course of action against other possible enemy courses of action.
    • Sequels: Sequels establish general dispositions, objectives and missions for subordinate units after the battle. They are arrived at by considering all reasonable outcomes of your course of action (victory, defeat, stalemate).

  Let's look at this in more detail.

  • ACTION: We will define this as friendly Maneuver action. The S3 will explain what maneuver forces are doing at this critical event. The statement should be simple: "I am attacking (or defending) with 2 M2 and 1 M1 Company." At the time corresponding to the critical event in the synchronization matrix, the recorder records "2 M2, 1 M1 Co".
  • REACTION: Reaction is what the enemy is doing about the friendly action. It is always enemy action. The S2 provides this information. It may be looked on as a list of HVTs that the enemy has in use at this point in the battle. Be sure to cover all battlefield operating systems from the enemy's standpoint. In another sense, this also corresponds to a paragraph 3 and 5c and d of the intel estimate specific to this critical event. The S2's response might look like this:

  "S3, within the box you have defined at this critical event the enemy will be defending with 1 MR Co and a tank platoon both at 50% strength and a BRDM2-AT5 platoon; 1 mortar battery 120mm, 1 D-30 battalion and 2 2S5 Bns will fire for him; he will have 4 SA-7s and 2 ZSU 23-4 air defending; 6 HIND-Es are available to reinforce his defense; he is likely to use chemical weapons as soon as we penetrate his first obstacle belt; his engineers will have minefields and anti-tank ditches at these points on the map."

  In the Enemy Reaction line at the appropriate time, the recorder records the HVTs:

  1 MR CO, 1 TNK PLT, AT5 50%
  

  1 MTR BTY, 1 D-30 BN, 2 2S5 BN
  

  4 SA-7, 2 ZSU 23-4
  

  6 HIND-E
  

  CHEMICAL
  

  GMZ, IMR

  At this point the S2 and S3 should stop to figure the correlation of forces; relative combat power on each side. The ratio will also be recorded.

  • COUNTERACTION: Counteraction consists of the staff presenting what they can do to neutralize, limit or delay the enemy's reaction. They are in response to the reactions the S2 has presented. The S2 and the S3 will have additional input but initially we will look to the rest of the staff. Counteractions will be recorded at the point they will have to begin in order to be complete/or have their effect at the critical event. For instance, the Chemical Officer says: "If the enemy is going to use chemical, we need to raise our MOPP from MOPP 0. I recommend MOPP I at LD/LC, and since it will take five minutes to go from MOPP I to IV and we don't want to make the change under fire, that we go to MOPP IV 20 minutes prior to the critical event."

  If this is accepted, the recorder, records MOPP I under the TPL the corresponds to the LD/LC on the Mobility, Countermobility, Survivability line and MOPP IV at a point on that line corresponding to 20 minutes prior to the critical event.

  On the other hand, the commander might say: "I don't want my troops in MOPP IV unnecessarily; S2, can you determine with certainty when and where he will use chemical?" In the matrix we record at 20 minutes prior to the event: "ANS PIR 1." The S2 notes that PIR 1 is "When and where will the enemy use chemical?" The recorder puts DP 1 (a numbered star in the DST) and records on the M/CM/S line "DP 1 CHG MOPP IV."

  The FSO says that he can limit enemy direct fire weapons with Smoke and WP. We determine that we will be within the enemy's direct fire range fan 15 minutes prior to the critical event. The S2 notes where the principle weapons systems will be and we record these as TAI 1 thru 6. This is where the FSO will shoot 15 minutes prior. On the
  

The FSO also notes that the lead company, Co A, our main attack, will be in the best position to direct artillery fires. So we also record "PRIORITY OF FIRES TO CO A."

We continue until we have suppressed, limited or delayed all of the enemy's reaction or as much as we can.

• MODIFYING THE COURSE OF ACTION: If we don't reach a point where we feel we can defeat the enemy as a result of our action and counteraction, we may at this point abandon our course of action, or more likely if time is short modify it to provide more focused combat power or more combat multipliers.
• COMPLETE THE WARGAME: Complete the wargame by gaming the remaining critical events in the same manner.
• WARGAME AGAINST OTHER ENEMY COAs: A friendly course of action may have been created to defeat a specific enemy course of action, but in order for us to select a course of action to turn into an order it should be capable of defeating all probable enemy courses of action. To determine this we wargame all enemy courses of action against our friendly course of action. The simplest way to do this is to retain the DST we used for the first wargame and record the results of the second wargame in a different color: say black for the first wargame and blue or red for the second and third.

You will find that subsequent wargames go much faster than the first. Many actions and reactions will be the same or very similar. There will be no need to record a change since there is none. You will also find that the new enemy course of action may force the commander to make decisions: Do we send the reserve to point A or point B? Some of these will become adjustments that we make to the course of action; many others will require decisions during the battle. These will be reflected with decision points in the DST and matrix. They will result in BRANCHES.

The S2 must also remember the enemy equivalent of branches. If we neutralize, delay or limit some of the enemy's HVTs, we must remember that he has FAILURE OPTIONS. These will result in

• PREPARATION: When preparing the synchronization matrix and aligning it with the time phase lines, leave one third of the space in the matrix to the side of your TPL corresponding to H hour for actions taking place prior to the start of the battle. This will allow you to conveniently record actions that must be taken prior to the beginning of the battle. The S2 and S3 must be prepared to Wargame.
  • S2 Prep:
    

• S3 Prep
  

• FOCUS: Stay focused on the event not on time. Do not try to fill out what each BOS is doing at the time cooresponding to a critical event. Note instead what the BOS's in use are doing at various times to have an effect at the time of the critical event.

BEGIN PE

3. SUMMARY