13 March 1994
a. Lesson Tie
-In. As the third formal class in the Offensive Operations and Intelligence portion of Bde O&I, the Intelligence Estimate class will introduce you to the methods of tieing the steps of Intelligence Preparation of the Battlefield (IPB), Mission Analysis and the Intelligence Estimate together. As a decision making took, the Intelligence Estimate is an integral part of intelligence production. It does not matter if you are updating an existing OPLAN or developing intelligence for a new mission, the process remains the same. This class is presented at the beginning of Bde O&I so as to ensure that each and every one of you completely understands the process. Additionally you will be required throughout Bde O&I to develop and update your intelligence estimate.
b. Objective: As a result of this instruction, students will, in an all-source intelligence environment, be able to apply the principles of the intelligence Estimate to an offensive and defensive scheme of maneuver IAW the current graduation criteria.
c. Safety Considerations: IV, Low.
d. Purpose: You must be prepared to present intelligence information to the commander and the S3. One of the principle means of doing this is through the Intelligence Estimate, a decision making tool. This class is intended to assist you in being able to take information from various sources and develop a finished intelligence estimate. Additionally you will apply this technique in the first Practical Exercise.
e. Procedure: You will be given detailed instruction on how to develop an intelligence estimate. After the classroom instruction you will be required to develop an intelligence estimate.
a. The Intelligence Estimate is a tried and true tool for the Intelligence Officer and analyst at any echelon. As described in Annex A, FM 34-10, Division intelligence And Electronic Warfare Operations, dated November 1986, the format for this tool follows the standard five paragraphs shown here:
(1ST PAGE ADMIN)
As important as the body of the document you must ensure that the administrative data provided on the first page of the Intelligence Estimate is correct. Many times the Estimate will be published separately from the Intelligence Annex, therefore it is incumbent that this information not be neglected by the issuing S2/G2.
In the upper right hand corner list:
PARAGRAPH ONE: MISSION. You receive this from the S3/G3. This is the restated mission from mission analysis and approved by the commander. If you are publishing this document separately ensure you put in the mission statement. If the Estimate is to be an appendix to the Intelligence Annex of the OPORD/OPLAN then refer the user to the appropriate paragraph of the plan to find the mission.
Think RED/WHITE/BLUE. During the estimate process you must think as the ENEMY COMMANDER, YOUR COMMANDER AND NEUTRAL. During Paragraph two, Area of Operations, you must ensure that you look at the weather and terrain and how it will effect your specific unit and the enemy. Do not focus just on the enemy. Additionally look at the entire estimate process as your commander would, as the enemy commander would and how all aspects identified can effect each party equally.
PARAGRAPH 2. AREA OF OPERATIONS. This paragraph discusses the influence of the battlefield environment. It is based on the facts and conclusion of IPB and the analysis of the battlefield area. If you just received the mission for this area then conduct IPB concurrently with development of the Intelligence Estimate.
Much of this information found in this paragraph can be obtained from outside sources. The Staff Weather Officer, (SWO), and the Terrain Engineer Detachment, both found on the division staff. They are required to conduct the analysis of the battlefield. As a brigade or
battalion S2 you can take their products and tailor them to your unit. Additionally you can request specific items from them through the G2 at division. For example, the Terrain Detachment can assist you with line of sight overlays, bridge ratings, obstacle above ground level overlays and any others that you need specifically for your type unit.
Paragraph 2.a. Weather.
(1) Existing Situation. Include light data and either a weather forecast or climatic information. Use appendixes for detailed information.
(2) Effect on Enemy Courses of Action (ECOA). Describe the effects of weather on each broad course of action, such as attack or defend. Each description concludes with a statement of whether the weather favors the course of action. Among the COAs include use of NBC, special methods, techniques, equipment, procedures, or forces.
(3) Effect on own COA. Describe i the same manner as for (2) above, except exclude the use of biological agents.
Paragraph 2.b. Terrain.
(1) Existing Situation. Use IPB overlays were possible. Use annexes for detailed material. Include as much information as necessary for understanding of observation and fire, concealment and cover, obstacles, key terrain features, and avenues of approach. Include effects of nuclear fires, biological and chemical agents, and any other pertinent considerations on each of these factors.
(2) Effect on ECOA. Describe the effects of terrain on each broad COA, such as attack or defend. For defensive COA, state the best defense area and the best avenues of approach leading to it. For attack COAs, state the best avenues of approach.
(3) Effect on Own COA. Same as in (2) above.
Paragraph 2.c. Other Characteristics. The following additional characteristics considered pertinent are included in separate subparagraphs:
We will now look at some examples of the types products you should develop and the reasons why.
A Precipitation Overlay can be extremely useful especially if you are operating in an area prone to floods. Do not discount using this overlay in desert areas, especially during Monsoon times.
(TANK IN SNOW)
As the S2 at Bn/Bde it is extremely important that you inform the Cdr of upcoming adverse weather. You must inform him of the weathers' effects on your weapons systems to include the main guns, sights, crew-served and dismounted troops.
(TENTS IN SNOW)
For example if you were operating in this environment how would you keep your soldiers from getting frostbite, batteries from dying, equipment from freezing? You as the S2 must be able to make informed suggestions to the Cdr. BE PREDICTIVE!
(TANKS IN FIELD)
Your analysis of the weather formations provided to you by the SWO can mean the difference between successful combined arms warfare and ...
Unsuccessful warfare, which could leave your unit susceptible to enemy actions and unable to complete assigned missions.
If you are assigned to an ADA or Aviation unit a CLOUD COVER OVERLAY is a very useful tool. This overlay allows you to predict visibility rates and observation from the ground and sky. You will then be able to inform the Cdr as to whether the enemy or you will be able to fly during a given period.
As you can see here this OV-1D has unlimited visibility, thus allowing him to conduct reconnaissance flights at will.
(HELO IN FOG)
On the other hand this pilot is flying in limited visibility. In this type of weather flying, ordnance release, and reconnaissance become very difficult. Granted there are all-weather A/C in most militaries but the majority of A/C in the world are older versions that do not possess all-weather capabilities. You must tell your CDR of the impact of the weather on current and future operations.
Now let us discuss a few items that you should consider during your analysis of the terrain. TOPOGRAPHY IS NOTHING MORE THAN RELIEF AND DRAINAGE.
When you conduct your analysis of the terrain look at the following factors. Again do not forget to think Red, White, and Blue and be predictive.
-Soils, will they support your equipment? is it hard packed? has it been tilled recently? are there crops planted?
-DZs, where are they? can they impact you?
-LZs, where are they? can they impact you?
-LOs, (log obstacles), can you use them? where are they? do they help/hinder your operations?
-% Slope, can you maneuver? is it an obstacle? can you use it to your benefit?
-Fording Sites, are they prepared? will you have to prepare them? can they support your type equipment? how fast is the water flowing? can you swim it?
-CCM (dry), countermobility, can you with engineer support? will the terrain support it w/o water?
-CCM (wet), countermobility, can you with engineer support? how can you use water obstacles to your benefit?
-MCOO, show everything, key terrain, water, built-up areas, vegetation density, ave of app, air ave of app.
-Hydrology, how does water effect your plan? is it an obstacle? a benefit? can it be bridged? forded?
-Built-up areas, can you go around? through? can you tie your defenses to it? is it protected? is it a church, hospital, historical area? can it be bombed? are there chemical plants or nuclear power stations?
-Vegetation Density, 6" or larger with 20" spacing? can you maneuver? can you dismount and maneuver? does it provide concealment? is it deciduous? is it coniferous? is it mixed? composition of the soil, packed or tilled?
Trafficability is nothing more than THE CAPABILITY OF TERRAIN TO BEAR TRAFFIC. As the S2 you must be able to advise the Cdr as to whether or not he will be able to maneuver in a given area and the impact the terrain will have on his enemy. Do not forget to include the impact weather will have on a given type of terrain.
You must look at the vegetation in your AO/AI and determine if it will offer your force concealment from ground and aerial observation. Are the forests deciduous or coniferous or both? What is the spacing of the forests? Can you maneuver mounted or dismounted? is the area predominately cultivated? Can you maneuver in the fields? Will they support your equipment.
(RELIEF & DRAINAGE)
Look at all terrain for % of slope. Can you maneuver on it? Is it no-go or slow-go? Will you have to prepare roadbeds? Can your equipment maneuver on the terrain with little or no difficulty? Great difficulty?
Here is a view of Germany. As you can see the forests will afford concealment from aerial and ground observation as long as they are in leaf. The fields which are untilled should support all types of traffic, the tilled fields will possibly support light wheeled traffic and limited heavy/armor traffic. The village nestled in the center of the alley will have to be bypassed as the small lanes will not support large armored and support vehicles.
A totally different type of terrain is shown here. This large rock formation will not allow any type of mounted maneuver. However, you will have to develop dismounted maneuver lanes. The vegetation present will not provide concealment from ground or aerial observation. Although this terrain is severely restricted
it does allow for very slow dismounted operations and cannot be totally discounted during your terrain analysis.
At this point you should have developed your COMBINED OBSTACLES OVERLAY. Ensure that you have included No-go, Slow-go, water obstacles, man-made obstacles, and % Slope. You will use this document to develop your mobility corridors and avenues of approach, both ground and air.
The widths of MOBILITY CORRIDORS as shown here are planning guides for developing them from the COO. The terrain analysis previously conducted allows for easy identification of mobility corridors and avenues of approach.
(AVE OF APP)
When developing your Ground avenues of approach from your COO use the provided mobility corridor planning tables and determine the size units which can use these areas. If you have analyzed the terrain correctly you will be able to almost eye-ball the mobility corridors. Indicate the size force which can maneuver in each and label them. When developing mobility corridors and avenues of approach remember to develop one up and two down. For example if you are a Bn S2 then develop bde to Plt sized mobility corridors.
(AIR AVE OF APP)
An aspect of IPB which is commonly overlooked by S2s is the Air Avenue of Approach. You must develop these as a part of your complete analysis. Failure to do so can leave your command open to surprise attack from threat air assets.
When developing AAAs you must remember the following rules:
-Fixed-Wing CAS A/C and Attack R/W A/C are employed as flying artillery and are employed directly along the avenues of approach that the ground force commander uses.
-F/W and R/W transport A/C have no means of protection and will use terrain to protect themselves. Thus their AA will predominately lie along hill masses and or behind them to protect themselves from ADA.
Upon identification of the ground and air avenues of approach you have completed the development of your
MODIFIED COMBINED OBSTACLES OVERLAY and finished paragraph 2.
PARAGRAPH 3. ENEMY SITUATION. This paragraph gives information on the enemy which will permit later development of enemy capabilities and vulnerabilities and refinement of these into a specific COA and its relative probability of adoption.
3.a. Disposition. Give the current laydown of the enemy that you are facing.
3.b. Composition. Summarize EOB that can influence your ability to complete the mission. Reference previously published documents. List units capable of EW, OOTW, and other special operations. Key on enemy maneuver and other BOS units that can severely impact your units mission. For example, an ADA S2 needs to know the F/W and R/W AOB more so than the engineer EOB.
3.c. Strength. Enemy strength is listed as committed forces, reinforcements, air assets, nuclear weapons, and chemical and biological agents. Include other BOS units as necessary. The purpose of this listing is to assist in developing enemy capabilities and vulnerabilities for use by the Cdr and staff in selecting COAs. Your unit mission, location of the enemy, enemy doctrine, and the level of command at which the estimate is being prepared are factors to be considered.
(1) Committed forces. List those enemy ground maneuver units in contact and those units with which imminent contact can be expected, regardless of FCOA. Designation of enemy forces as committed forces depends on disposition, location, controlling HQs and doctrine. This is normally done by accounting for committed forces based on the size unit doctrinally used to oppose the friendly unit, for example a Bde counts companies, a division G2, battalions and a corps G2, in terms of regiments. If you cannot identify a unit as committed then carry it as reinforcements.
(2) Reinforcements. Include unit designation and location. Reinforcements are those enemy units that may or may not be employed against us, depending on our COA and enemy plans.
Reinforcements are not committed in our AO/AI but can be subject to time and distance considerations.
Imminent contact is not expected.
(3) Air. List AOB by numbers and types within operational radius. Include number of sorties per day, by type of a/c. A good planning factor is as follows:
(4) NBC. Estimate number, type, yield, and delivery means for nuclear and type agent for chemical.
(5) Other BOS as required. List those enemy units that can severely limit and or degrade your units ability to perform assigned missions. For example attack helicopter units are particularly interested in enemy ADA.
3.d. Recent and Present Significant Activities. List items of information to provide a basis for analysis to determine relative probability of adoption of specific COAs and enemy vulnerabilities. List failures as well as successes.
3.e. Peculiarities and Weaknesses. Are based on the knowledge of enemy tactical doctrine, practices, principles of war, the AO/AI. List each peculiarity and weakness and describe how each one may make the enemy vulnerable and how they influence FCOA. Group under the following headings and only use those you need.
-Personnel: % Strength
-Personalities: capabilities/weaknesses of
enemy Cdr, principal staff
Let us now look at some procedures and items that you need to consider when developing paragraph 3.
Begin with the doctrinal template. If there is not one for this enemy then take what you know and develop one. Tell your Cdr how the enemy would like to operate if he could.
(EX DOC TEMP)
Here is another example of a completed doctrinal template.
Once you begin to receive information about the enemy, then post it and develop yourself a situational template. You can compare the doctrinal and situational templates to determine how the threat Cdr has adjusted the way he likes to fight to the way the terrain and weather make him fight.
(6 ID (L))
When you are evaluating information about the enemy for paragraph 3, look at whether he is properly equipped for the environment. If he isn't how will it impact his ability to conduct his mission.
Is the enemy equipped with old weapons and clothing? Is he still capable of performing his mission?
Does he have older main battle tanks with upgraded tubes and target acquisition systems?
Or is he equipped with state of the art MBTs? How well is he trained? Does he have sufficient support for these weapons systems?
Is he relying on triple AAA with little or no acquisition radars?
Or does he have Surface to Air missiles?
Is his airforce equipped with 1960s attack helicopters, which are very capable weapons or ....
Does he have true attack helicopters? Many nations are not wealthy enough to buy true attack helicopters but for a small price they can upgrade their helicopters with add-on weapons pods, missiles, and avionics.
Can your enemy organically bridge water obstacles?
Must he use established bridgeheads to move his maneuver forces?
Can he communicate with his forces via modern communications? Is he relying on antiquated equipment? Can we intercept his communications thus effecting his COAs?
Are his forces trained to fight in urban warfare?
How well indoctrinated are his soldiers? Will they fight when called upon?
Are his forces physically and mentally fit? Are they prepared to fight? Will their will for war crumble like the Iraqi's or will they be able to sustain it to the bitter end like the German forces in WWII?
Does the threat have nuclear weapons? Is the country powered by nuclear plants? Do they have the technology to produce weapons of mass destruction?
Are his soldiers prepared and trained to fight in a contaminated battlefield? Does he have overprotection suits, systems for his fighting vehicles?
Have you told your Cdr everything you can find out about the enemy? ARE YOU SURE?
PARAGRAPH 4. ENEMY CAPABILITIES. Based on all the previous information and analysis, develop and list enemy capabilities. This list will become the basis for the enemies capabilities to adopt specific COAs and their relative probability of adoption.
a. Enumeration. State what, when, where, and in what strength for each capability.
b. Analysis and Discussion. To further your analysis and conclusions of the enemy capabilities and their relative probability of adoption, list each capability or combination of capabilities and discuss in separate subparagraphs. Consider enemy deception measures. All previous information either supports or rejects the enemies ability to adopt a COA. After listing each piece of evidence, judge it from the enemy point of view
as to whether the adoption of the capability is advantageous to the enemy. Judgments need not be made if the conclusion is obvious or if there is no evidence that the enemy will adopt the capability, except when the capability is one that will make the accomplishment of the friendly mission highly doubtful or impossible. This exception is to focus your attention on dangerous threats to your command.
REMEMBER WHEN WRITING PARAGRAPH 4, BE PREDICTIVE. TEACH YOUR SUBORDINATES TO BE PREDICTIVE. PEOPLES LIVES DEPEND ON YOUR ANALYSIS.
PARAGRAPH 5. CONCLUSIONS. Based on all the previous information and analysis, conclusions are stated concerning the total effects of the AO/AI of FCOA, ECOA most likely to be adopted, and the effects of enemy vulnerabilities that we can exploit. These conditions assist in the selection of a friendly COA.
a. Effects of Intelligence Consideration on Operations. Indicate whether the mission in paragraph 1, can be supported by intelligence. Indicate which COA you can support best.
b. Effects of the AO on Own COA. For attack COA, indicate the best avenues of approach. For defensive COA, indicate the best defense areas and the best avenues of approach leading to and into the defense areas.
c. Probable ECOA. List COA in order of relative probability of adoption. A listed COA may include several subordinate COAs that can be executed concurrently. Usually, no more than two or three COA, in order of probability of adoption, can be justified by the available evidence.
d. Enemy Vulnerabilities. List the effects of peculiarities and weaknesses that result in vulnerabilities that are exploitable at own, higher, or lower levels of command. The order of listing has no significance.
(LAST PAGE ADMIN
The last page of the estimate has administrative data that must be properly filled out. Just like the first page it is important to the users of your document to know where it came from. On the last page, you as the S2/G2 will sign this document. List all annexes that
should accompany it and or will be published in the future. Finally list all users of this document. At a minimum you should list those units that are found in Annex A, Operations to the current OPLAN.
(INTEL EST PRODUCTS)
We have concluded with the formal discussion of the contents of the Intelligence Estimate and will now discuss the products you will develop or need to write the estimate.
Para 1 - Restated mission.
Para 2 - AO/AI/Battlespace.
Effects on ECOA/FCOA.
Para 3 - OB (Electronic/Air/Ground/Naval)
Para 4 - COA.
Para 5 - Effects on intel ops.
Effects on FCOA.
a. Review of Main Points. During this class we have discussed the intelligence estimate. How this document is a decision making took, produced by the S2, and used by the Cdr. It assists the Cdr and S3 in determining which FCOA to adopt. We have discussed the five paragraphs of the Intelligence Estimate:
-Area of operations
Additionally we have discussed how the processes of IPB and TDP facilitate the development of the Intelligence Estimate.
b. What are your questions and comments?
c. Tie-in. This class is the first of many in-depth classes you will receive on intelligence products which are developed by the S2 as decision making tools for the Cdr. During the first Practical Exercise of Bde O*I you will develop and brief an Intelligence Estimate.