FM 34-8 Chptr 2 - Intelligence and the Command Estimate Process

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CHAPTER 2

INTELLIGENCE AND THE COMMAND ESTIMATE PROCESS

By the word "information" we denote all the
knowledge which we have of the enemy and
his country, therefore, it is in part the foun-
dation of all our ideas and actions.

Clausewitz

The Intelligence Cycle is the process by which information is converted into intelligence. It has four phases: Directing, collecting, processing, and disseminating. Directing determines what intelligence is required and who should collect it. Collecting obtains combat information, intelligence, and targets by tasked organizations. Processing converts combat information into intelligence and targets through analysis, and determines how it fits into the situation. Disseminating passes the intelligence and targets to users when they need them.

The process described in this chapter shows how a unit plans and executes the intelligence effort to support an operation. The Command Estimate Process is used to show how the Intelligence BOS helps synchronize other BOSs. This example shows the intelligence process applied to a brigade, but the same fundamental process is applied at every echelon.

MISSION IS RECEIVED Intelligence Cycle Phase: Directing

Commander's Interaction with the Intelligence Cycle	Commander's Checklist
Begin the IPB process.	CHECK - Do you and your staff have the same perception of the upcoming fight?
You, the S3, the S2, and other key personnel discuss your common understanding of the battlefield. (See Figure 2-1, Common Understanding).
You and the S2 determine the extent of the area of interest (AI).
Identify all enemy units that you might engage.	CHECK - Does the S2 know all that you know about the enemy situation?
The S2 identifies gaps in knowledge.
You identify which uncertainties must be solved for this mission.
Give the S2 your initial guidance for intelligence. (Focus his IPB effort.) Usually, you have the S2 focus on analyzing COAs and reinforcements available to the enemy commander you're about to face.	CHECK - Does the S2 understand your initial guidance?

FACTS AND ASSUMPTIONS Intelligence Cycle Phase: Directing

Commander's Interaction with the Intelligence Cycle	Commander's Checklist
The S2 continues IPB to produce the intelligence estimate:	CHECK - Did the S2 discuss the kinds of operations the area of operations (AO) will support?
° The S2 analyzes the environmental effects on enemy COAs.	CHECK - Did the S2 cover what is known about the enemy YOU will face?
° The S2 researches the known enemy situation and how he normally fights in similar situations (situation map, doctrinal templates).
° The S2 generates situation templates for each of the enemy's COAs. He does this by integrating the IPB products.(See Figure 2-2, IPB.)	CHECK - Did the S2 focus the IPB per your guidance?
The S2 prepares most of the intelligence estimate at this point.	CHECK: - Do the situation templates make sense given the enemy's situation and your knowledge of his tactics
	- Did the S2 prioritize the enemy COAs logically (most likely, most dangerous, least likely)?
	- Ask yourself, "If I were the enemy S3/G3 for that mission, which COAs would I present to my commander?"

ANALYSIS OF HIGHER MISSION AND INTENT Intelligence Cycle Phase: Directing

Commanders Interaction with the Intelligence Cycle

Commander's Checklist

The S2 helps the rest of the staff conduct mission analysis. The S2 should analyze tasks from the enemy's perspective.

Except for paragraphs 5a (Effects of Intelligence on Friendly COAs) and 5b (Effects of Area of Operations on Friendly COAs), the S2 should brief the intelligence estimate before the S3/XO briefs the mission analysis. Paragraphs 5a and 5b require S3-developed friendly COAs and the S2 briefs these later as part of the staff recommendation.

CHECK - Did the S2 brief the status of the unit's collection assets?

COMMANDERS GUIDANCE Intelligence Cycle Phase: Directing

Commander's Interaction with the Intelligence Cycle	Commander's Checklist
In addition to other planning guidance, give the S2 instructions about aspects of the enemy that you're most concerned about. Provide your guidance on intelligence collection and target acquisition in terms of enemy, weather, and terrain. The S2 should make sure your concerns are adequately addressed in developing and analyzing friendly COAs.
Be sure to emphasize to the S2 how you intend to employ your assets so the S2 can anticipate the support you expect. For example, if you plan to use cross-FLOT aviation operations, the S2 should anticipate support to Suppression of Enemy Air Defense (SEAD).

COA DEVELOPMENT Intelligence Cycle Phase: Directing

Commander's Interaction with the Intelligence Cycle	Commander's Checklist
The S2 helps develop friendly COAs. He analyzes COAs from the enemy's perspective and ensures that each friendly COA is valid against all enemy COAs in terms of force ratios, tactics, and common sense.	CHECK - Is each friendly COA valid against each enemy COA?
The S2 refines initial IPB:
° The S2 develops named areas of interest (NAIs), event templates, and event analysis matrices to confirm or deny each enemy COA. The event template shows how to quickly confirm or deny the situation templates. It will become the basis for the collection or reconnaissance and surveillance (R&S) plan.	CHECK - Is the S2 developing indicators for each NAI?
° The S2 identifies enemy high value targets (HVTs) for each enemy COA.

COA ANALYSIS (Wargaming) Intelligence Cycle Phase: Directing

Commander's Interaction with the Intelligence Cycle	Commander's Checklist

The S2 role-plays the enemy commander during wargaming. The S2 makes sure the staff fully addresses friendly responses for each enemy COA by trying to "win" the wargame for the enemy. Each response is tied to an enemy action. The friendly action will be translated to an "ON ORDER" or "BE PREPARED" task in the operation order (OPORD) or fragmentary order (FRAGO). (See Figure 2-3, Wargaming.)	CHECK - Has the S2 logically presented probable enemy reactions to friendly maneuver and targeting?
As the unit's collection manager, the S2 wargames the R&S plan to make sure tasked collection assets are available to report activity in the designated NAIs.	CHECK - Do you agree with the assets tasked by the S2? Do you or your S3 have conflicting requirements for your scouts or cavalry which will preclude the S2 from properly executing his R&S plan?
	CHECK - Has the S2 covered NAIs and target areas of interest (TAIs) adequately?
The S2 develops and recommends a set of Intelligence Requirements, or (IRs), for each friendly COA that is wargamed.	CHECK - Are all IRs linked to specific enemy actions or reactions that require a friendly response?
The S2 continues to refine the initial IPB:
° The S2 completes the event templates and event analysis matrices to anticipate key enemy decisions for each friendly COA.
° An event template or analysis matrix represents the enemy's decision support template (DST) synchronization matrix for a given friendly COA.
The XO directs the staff to record the wargaming results into both a DST and a BOS synchronization matrix for each friendly COA that is wargamed. (See Figure 2-4, DST and BOS synchronization matrix.)	CHECK - Did the staff wargame against each of the possible enemy COAs?
	CHECK - Is each friendly response associated with a clearly defined IR?

COA ANALYSIS (Targeting) Intelligence Cycle Phase: Directing

Commander's Interaction with the Intelligence Cycle	Commander's Checklist
The FSO chairs a targeting session for each friendly COA.
The S2, S3, and FSO choose a set of HPTs for each friendly COA from the HVT list.	CHECK - Do the identified HPTs attack an enemy weakness that will further the success of the friendly COA? Do they support your concept of the operation and your priorities?
The targeting team develops the HPT list.
The targeting team develops the attack guidance matrix.	CHECK - Did the S2 validate "immediate" and "planned" targets? Has he identified appropriate TAIs and tasked collection assets to locate targets when and where you need them attacked?
	CHECK - Did the S2 validate target categories marked as "destroy?"
The Intelligence and Electronic Warfare Support Officer (IEWSO) at brigade (or EW officer at division and corps) recommends appropriate integration of communications jamming into the fire support plan.	CHECK - Does the planned jamming further the maneuver plan and complement the lethal fire plan?

RECOMMENDATION

Intelligence Cycle Phase: Directing

Commander's Interaction with the Intelligence Cycle	Commander's Checklist
The S2 participates in developing the staff recommendation.	CHECK - Have each COA's strengths and weaknesses been adequately addressed in terms of the enemy?
The S2 also completes the intelligence estimate: paras 5a and 5b.
The S2 recommends for your approval certain IR to become PIR.	CHECK - Do they address your priority concerns about the enemy? Are the recommended PIR consistent with PIR guidance in Appendix A?
	CHECK - Have you told the S2 when the PIR must be satisfied?

DECISION Intelligence Cycle Phase: Directing

Commander's Interaction with the Intelligence Cycle	Commander's Checklist
Choose a COA.
° The S2 should highlight the intelligence requirements for each friendly decision on the DST.
Resolve with the S2 and IEWSO the "price" for answering each IR.
° Will you have to depend upon higher headquarters?
° Will you have to task a line unit?
Give S2 final approval for PIR and the collection or R&S plan.

ISSUE THE OPORD/FRAGO Intelligence Cycle Phase: Directing

Commander's Interaction with the Intelligence Cycle	Commander's Checklist
Once you approve the targeting priorities established in the attack guidance matrix, the FSO develops a detailed fire support plan to include a schedule of fires. The S2 should help the FSO identify known HPTs and HVTs that require intelligence support to locate. The FSO, S2, and S3 should all discuss the amount of damage each target requires to support the overall plan.	CHECK - Has the S2 identified the intelligence required to support the schedule of fires? Does the S2 understand the level of damage each target requires? Does the S2 understand when the BDA for each target needs to be determined to support the schedule of fires?
The S2 develops for your approval:
° Finalized PIR (detailed and specific).	CHECK - Has the S2 covered all NAIs, TAIs, and DPs with appropriate collection (R&S) assets?
° The intelligence synchronization matrix. This matrix links the PIRs and IRs with the associated DPs from the DST as well as a specific collection strategy. (See Figure 2-5, Intelligence Synchronization Matrix.)	CHECK - Does the intelligence synchronization matrix get you the intelligence you need when you need it?
	CHECK - Does the intelligence synchronization matrix support your targeting effort to the degree you require? Have BDA requirements been incorporated into the collection or R&S plan?
° Collection or R&S plan with detailed taskings and requirements reflecting the collection strategy on the intelligence synchronization matrix.	CHECK - Is the S2 tasking all available organic and attached collection assets including engineer, aviation, artillery, etc?
° Detailed taskings and requests that "Flesh Out" the synchronization matrix.	CHECK - Can the collection assets deliver the intelligence the S2 is tasking? (Ask the MI unit commander or his IEWSO.)
° An intelligence annex, including the collection plan.	CHECK - Does higher headquarters clearly understand your priorities and when you must have the intelligence and targets?

SUPERVISE Intelligence Cycle Phase: Collecting

Commander's Interaction with the Intelligence Cycle	Commander's Checklist
The S2 receives and consolidates all subordinates R&S overlays ensure they adequately support his collection plan.	CHECK - Is the S2 tracking upcoming dead-lines for intelligence requirements via the intelligence synchronization matrix?
Collection assets conduct collection operations.	CHECK - Is he prompting collection assets to meet taskings?
The S2 receives reports and redirects taskings.	CHECK- Are the MI unit and other tasked assets meeting their intelligence taskings? - Are the S2 and the IEWSO apprising you of the status of intelligence requests to division? - Is the S2 apprising you of collection problems?

SUPERVISE Intelligence Cycle Phase: Processing

Commander's Interaction with the Intelligence Cycle	Commander's Checklist
The S2 records each intelligence message into a general database. He ensures that no message gets lost, and that each message is quickly retrievable.	CHECK - Can you get immediate answers to questions you have on reported enemy activities, cross-referenced by time, location, or subject?
The S2 evaluates each report for pertinence, reliability, accuracy, and timeliness.
The S2 analyzes each report and updates the common understanding of the battlefield. He places special emphasis on the confirmation or denial of situation templates (filling the high priority gaps in knowledge). He uses the event template or analysis matrix to anticipate enemy decisions and confirm enemy COA.	CHECK - Are situation templates being confirmed or denied in a timely manner?
The S2 continually analyzes combat information and raw data to develop situations, develop or identify targets, assess battle damage, and give indications and warning (I&W) of hostilities.	CHECK - Is the S2 fully exploiting IPB and collection efforts? Do you have a good picture of the battlefield? Do you have enough confirmed intelligence to execute your concept of the operation as planned during wargaming? Do you have enough intelligence to properly issue "ON ORDER" and "BE PREPARED" missions to allow for contingencies identified during wargaming? - Is the S2 informing you of potential new enemy actions not anticipated during IPB or wargaming? Is the S2 preparing you to change your concept of the operation based upon these unexpected enemy actions? - Is the S2 analyzing the reports and telling you what they mean or merely conducting battlefield "beancounting?" - Is combat information being reported in a timely manner?

SUPERVISE Intelligence Cycle Phase: Dissemination

Commander's Interaction with the Intelligence Cycle	Commander's Checklist
The S2 keeps key personnel within the unit abreast of the general situation via intelligence briefings (usually best) and intelligence reports. The technique of using a graphic intelligence report (status at a glance) is usually optimal in dynamic situations. (See Figure 2-6, Graphic Intelligence Report.)	CHECK - Are all intelligence requirements identified in the BOS synchronization matrix being met in an adequate manner? Are decision makers getting the intelligence in a timely manner?
A written intelligence report may be more appropriate for static situations.
During wargaming, the S2 and the IEWSO contract to deliver specific intelligence to specific decision makers at specific times during the battle.
Reports are event or requirement driven. They are not time oriented. The key is to give you intelligence you need when you need it or, not every 4, 6, or 12 hours?	CHECK - Is your S2 producing intelligence reports when you need them?
The S2 always keeps personnel abreast of the status of confirming or denying enemy COAs and answering PIRs on time.
During the battle, the S2 tracks the intelligence synchronization matrix to identify when decisions need to be made, by whom, and what intelligence the decision maker needs. Then the S2 provides the needed intelligence to those who need it.	CHECK - Are intelligence reports keeping key personnel abreast of the enemy situation? Are they well written? Do they answer PIRs or otherwise explain why the information is important? Rule of thumb: Can an alert combat arms soldier understand them quickly without explanation?
Also during the battle, the S2 uses the intelligence synchronization matrix to make sure collection assets are collecting on the proper PIR at the proper time and will meet deadlines required by the primary synchronization matrix. The S2 resolves collection problems in a timely manner to support timely dissemination.	CHECK - Do all key personnel know about the current status of confirming or denying situation templates (enemy COAs)? - Is the intelligence available whenever you or one of your staff officers needs to make an informed decision?

RECEIVE MISSION (Again) Intelligence Cycle Phase: Directing (Again)

Commander's Interaction with the Intelligence Cycle	Commander's Checklist
The intelligence cycle is dynamic, and you need to refocuse it as the battle changes and your requirements for intelligence and targets change.	CHECK - Is the S2 apprising you of anticipated situations on the battlefield?
Continue to discuss the common understanding of the battlefield with the S2, S3, and other staff officers.	CHECK - Does the S2 use PIRs to refocus the collection effort to address new gaps in knowledge?
	CHECK - Does the S2 ask you to approve the new PIRs before implementing them?
Different IRs will become PIRs to address new (or newly important) gaps in knowledge. Likewise, PIRs may be downgraded to IRs. The collection plan and taskings are modified to meet new requirements.	CHECK - Can the S2 and IEWSO estimate the impact on collection assets associated with each change in the PIRs?
If necessary, new intelligence may require reinitiation of all (or parts) of the command estimate process.	CHECK - Is the S2 prompting you and the S3 to modify the plan ?