Congressional Record: March 28, 2007 (Senate) Page S4059-S4061 STATEMENTS ON INTRODUCED BILLS AND JOINT RESOLUTIONS By Mr. DURBIN (for himself, Mr. Hagel, and Mrs. Feinstein): S. 1018. A bill to address security risks posed by global climate change and for other purposes; to the Select Committee on Intelligence. Mr. DURBIN. Mr. President, today, Senator Hagel and I introduced the bipartisan Global Climate Change Security Oversight Act. We were joined by Senator Feinstein. Our bill states that the consequences of global climate change represent a clear and present danger to the security of the United States. For years, many of us have examined global warming as an environmental or economic issue. We also need to consider it as a security concern. Our bill begins this process by requiring a National Intelligence Estimate to assess the strategic challenges presented by the world's changing climate. The National Security Strategy of 2006 stated that the United States now faces new security challenges, including ``environmental destruction, whether caused by human behavior or cataclysmic mega- disasters such as floods, hurricanes, earthquakes, or tsunamis. Problems of this scope may overwhelm the capacity of local authorities to respond, and may even overtax national militaries, requiring a larger international response. These challenges are not traditional national security concerns, such as the conflict of arms or ideologies. But if left unaddressed they can threaten national security.'' Global climate change represents one of the new environmental challenges outlined in the National Security Strategy that poses a threat to our national security. Failing to recognize and plan for the geopolitical challenges of global warming would represent a serious mistake. A National Intelligence Estimate is a comprehensive review of a potential security threat that combines, correlates and evaluates intelligence from all of the relevant U.S. intelligence agencies. Various intelligence agencies--the CIA, NSA, the Pentagon, FBI, etc. must pool data, share perspectives and work together to assemble an accurate picture of threats to U.S. security. Without an NIE, the various agencies may never have an opportunity to examine each other's data, and any differences or similarities between the reports could provide important information for policymakers. In this legislation, we ask for the intelligence community to provide a strategic estimate of the risks posed by global climate change for countries or regions that are of particular economic or military significance to the United States or that are at serious risk of humanitarian suffering. This NIE will assess the political, social, agricultural, and economic challenges for countries and their likely impact. Every region will be affected differently by global warming and it is critical that our intelligence and military communities are prepared to handle the situations most likely to arise. For example, rising sea levels will have a profound impact on low lying coastal areas, especially in the Asia-Pacific region. This region is home to 58 percent of the world's population and 57 percent of the world's poorest population. More than 5 million people live in major cities that are in low lying coastal areas. People in the Asia-Pacific region already endure coastal natural disasters, such as tsunamis, and inland flooding. Between 2001 and 2005, 62,273 people were killed annually by water related disasters in this region. This number is only going to increase as the world warms. Africa is a place where changes in precipitation patterns will be particularly devastating. Many areas are already under enormous stress from drought and hunger. In 2005, 30 million people in 34 countries confronted food shortages as a result of drought. It is estimated that the droughts will become more severe and impact more people if the temperature continues to rise. Environmental changes caused by global warming represent a potential threat multiplier for instability around the world. Scarce water, for example, may exacerbate conflict along economic, ethnic, or sectarian divisions. [[Page S4060]] Water shortages, food insecurity, or flooding all of which may occur as a result of rising global temperatures could also displace people, forcing them to migrate. Many of the most severe effects of global warming are expected in regions where fragile governments are least capable of responding to them. This NIE will examine these questions and more. It will also do something that we don't do often enough here in Congress: it will look beyond the near horizon of the next election or the next few years and require the intelligence community to think about these issues in the context of the next 30 years. The bill we introduced today will also fund additional research by the Department of Defense in order to examine the impact of climate change on military operations. Rising temperatures are altering the international environment. We need to be prepared for this new world. We hope that our colleagues will join us in this bipartisan effort to assess the strategic implications of climate change. The scientific community has demonstrated that the earth is growing warmer. We are asking the intelligence community to analyze the geopolitical implications of these changes. I ask unanimous consent that the text of the bill be printed in the Record. There being no objection, the bill was ordered to be printed in the Record, as follows: S. 1018 Be it enacted by the Senate and House of Representatives of the United States of America in Congress assembled, SECTION 1. SHORT TITLE. This Act may be cited as the ``Global Climate Change Security Oversight Act''. SEC. 2. FINDINGS. Congress makes the following findings: (1) According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, in 2007 the average annual temperature in the United States and around the global is approximately 1.0 degree Fahrenheit warmer than at the start of the 20th century, and the rate of warming has accelerated during the past 30 years, increasing globally since the mid-1970s. The fourth assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has predicted that the Earth will warm 0.72 degrees Fahrenheit during the next 2 decades with current emission trends. (2) The annual national security strategy report submitted pursuant to section 108 of the National Security Act of 1947 (50 U.S.C. 404a) for 2006 states that the United States faces new security challenges, including ``environmental destruction, whether caused by human behavior or cataclysmic mega-disasters such as floods, hurricanes, earthquakes, or tsunamis. Problems of this scope may overwhelm the capacity of local authorities to respond, and may even overtax national militaries, requiring a larger international response. These challenges are not traditional national security concerns, such as the conflict of arms or ideologies. But if left unaddressed they can threaten national security.''. (3) According to the fourth assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, average temperature increases of between 2 and 4 degrees Celsius over preindustrial levels are projected to cause the sea level to rise by between 2 and 4 meters by 2100 due to melting of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets. (4) In 2007, more than 200,000,000 people live in coastal floodplains around the world and 2,000,000 square kilometers of land and an estimated $1,000,000,000,000 worth of assets are less than a 1-meter elevation above sea level. (5) An estimated 1,700,000,000 people in the world live in areas where water is scarce and in 25 years that population is projected to increase to 5,400,000,000. Climate change will impact the hydrological cycle and change the location, time of year, and intensity of water availability. (6) The report of the World Health Organization entitled ``The World Health Report 2002: Reducing Risks and Promoting Healthy Life'' states that ``Effects of climate change on human health can be expected to be mediated through complex interactions of physical, ecological, and social factors. These effects will undoubtedly have a greater impact on societies or individuals with scarce resources, where technologies are lacking, and where infrastructure and institutions (such as the health sector) are least able to adapt.''. (7) Environmental changes relating to global climate change represent a potentially significant threat multiplier for instability around the world as changing precipitation patterns may exacerbate competition and conflict over agricultural, vegetative, and water resources and displace people, thus increasing hunger and poverty and causing increased pressure on fragile countries. (8) The strategic, social, political, and economic consequences of global climate change are likely to have a greater adverse effect on less developed countries with fewer resources and infrastructures that are less able to adjust to new economic and social pressures, and where the margin for governance and survival is thin. (9) The consequences of global climate change represent a clear and present danger to the security and economy of the United States. (10) A failure to recognize, plan for, and mitigate the strategic, social, political, and economic effects of a changing climate will have an adverse impact on the national security interests of the United States. SEC. 3. NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE ESTIMATE ON GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE. (a) Requirement for National Intelligence Estimate.-- (1) In general.--Except as provided in paragraph (2), not later than 270 days after the date of enactment of this Act, the Director of National Intelligence shall submit to Congress a National Intelligence Estimate on the anticipated geopolitical effects of global climate change and the implications of such effects on the national security of the United States. (2) Notice regarding submittal.--If the Director of National Intelligence determines that the National Intelligence Estimate required by paragraph (1) cannot be submitted by the date set out in that paragraph, the Director shall notify Congress and provide-- (A) the reasons that the National Intelligence Estimate cannot be submitted by such date; and (B) an estimated date for the submittal of the National Intelligence Estimate. (b) Content.--The Director of National Intelligence shall prepare the National Intelligence Estimate required by this section using the mid-range projections of the fourth assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change-- (1) to assess the political, social, agricultural, and economic risks during the 30-year period beginning on the date of enactment of this Act posed by global climate change for countries or regions that are-- (A) of strategic economic or military importance to the United States and at risk of significant impact due to global climate change; or (B) at significant risk of large-scale humanitarian suffering with cross-border implications as predicted on the basis of the assessments; (2) to assess other risks posed by global climate change, including increased conflict over resources or between ethnic groups, within countries or transnationally, increased displacement or forced migrations of vulnerable populations due to inundation or other causes, increased food insecurity, and increased risks to human health from infectious disease; (3) to assess the capabilities of the countries or regions described in subparagraph (A) or (B) of paragraph (1) to respond to adverse impacts caused by global climate change; (4) to assess the strategic challenges and opportunities posed to the United States by the risks described in paragraph (1); (5) to assess the security implications and opportunities for the United States economy of engaging, or failing to engage successfully, with other leading and emerging major contributors of greenhouse gas emissions in efforts to reduce emissions; and (6) to make recommendations for further assessments of security consequences of global climate change that would improve national security planning. (c) Coordination.--In preparing the National Intelligence Estimate under this section, the Director of National Intelligence shall consult with representatives of the scientific community, including atmospheric and climate studies, security studies, conflict studies, economic assessments, and environmental security studies, the Secretary of Defense, the Secretary of State, the Administrator of the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration, the Administrator of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration, the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency, the Secretary of Energy, and the Secretary of Agriculture, and, if appropriate, multilateral institutions and allies of the United States that have conducted significant research on global climate change. (d) Form.--The National Intelligence Estimate required by this section shall be submitted in unclassified form, to the extent consistent with the protection of intelligence sources and methods, and include unclassified key judgments of the National Intelligence Estimate. Such National Intelligence Estimate may include a classified annex. SEC. 4. RESPONSE TO THE NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE ESTIMATE. (a) Report by the Secretary of Defense.--Not later than 270 days after the date that the National Intelligence Estimate required by section 3 is submitted to Congress, the Secretary of Defense shall submit to the Committee on Appropriations, the Committee on Armed Services, and the Select Committee on Intelligence of the Senate and the Committee on Appropriations, the Committee on Armed Services, and the Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence of the House of Representatives a report on-- (1) the projected impact on the military installations and capabilities of the United States of the effects of global climate change as assessed in the National Intelligence Estimate; (2) the projected impact on United States military operations of the effects of global climate change described in the National Intelligence Estimate; and [[Page S4061]] (3) recommended research and analysis needed to further assess the impacts on the military of global climate change. (b) Sense of Congress on the Next Quadrennial Defense Review.--It is the sense of Congress that the Secretary of Defense should address the findings of the National Intelligence Estimate required by section 3 regarding the impact of global climate change and potential implications of such impact on the Armed Forces and for the size, composition, and capabilities of Armed Forces in the next Quadrennial Defense Review. (c) Report by the Secretary of State.--Not later than 270 days after the date that the National Intelligence Estimate required by section 3 is submitted to Congress, the Secretary of State shall submit to the Committee on Appropriations, the Committee on Foreign Relations, and the Select Committee on Intelligence of the Senate and the Committee on Appropriations, the Committee on Foreign Affairs, and the Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence of the House of Representatives a report that addresses-- (1) the potential for large migration flows in countries of strategic interest or humanitarian concern as a response to changes in climate and the implications for United States security interests; and (2) the potential for diplomatic opportunities and challenges facing United States policy makers as a result of social, economic, or political responses of groups or nations to global changing climate. SEC. 5. AUTHORIZATION OF RESEARCH. (a) In General.--The Secretary of Defense is authorized to carry out research on the impacts of global climate change on military operations, doctrine, organization, training, material, logistics, personnel, and facilities and the actions needed to address those impacts. Such research may include-- (1) the use of war gaming and other analytical exercises; (2) analysis of the implications for United States defense capabilities of large-scale Arctic sea-ice melt and broader changes in Arctic climate; (3) analysis of the implications for United States defense capabilities of abrupt climate change; (4) analysis of the implications of the findings derived from the National Intelligence Estimate required in section 3 Act for United States defense capabilities; (5) analysis of the strategic implications for United States defense capabilities of direct physical threats to the United States posed by extreme weather events such as hurricanes; and (6) analysis of the existing policies of the Department of Defense to assess the adequacy of the Department's protections against climate risks to United States capabilities and military interests in foreign countries. (b) Report.--Not later than 2 years after the date that the National Intelligence Estimate required by section 3 is submitted to Congress, the Secretary of Defense shall submit to Congress a report on the results of the research, war games, and other activities carried out pursuant to subsection (a). SEC. 6. AUTHORIZATION OF APPROPRIATIONS. There is authorized to be appropriated such sums as may be necessary to carry out this Act. Mr. HAGEL. Mr. President. I rise today to join Senator Durbin in introducing the Global Climate Change Security Oversight Act. Global climate change has implications beyond economic, environmental and energy policies. It has the potential to affect every aspect of our daily lives. It is because of the possible broad impact on U.S. interests at home and abroad that I have agreed to be the lead Republican co-sponsor on the Global Climate Change Security Oversight Act. Senator Durbin and I differ on policy initiatives designed to reduce the impact of climate change. We do agree, however, on the need to assess potential impacts of the changing climate on U.S. national security interests so that our Nation can develop responsible, forward- thinking policies that ensure the continued safety and prosperity of the American people. There will always be uncertainties and incomplete information in climate science. This is the nature of scientific discovery; it is constantly evolving, constantly gaining new insights and explanations of our natural world. National policy must be crafted based on what is known, but also must be able to incorporate the uncertainties of what is yet to be learned. Our bill provides a foundation for future policy options. It instructs the Director of National Intelligence to conduct a National Intelligence Estimate to assess the potential geopolitical effects of global climate change and the implications for U.S. national security. It asks for a risk assessment of a broad array of impacts based on current scientific understanding. This bill is intended to gather information about the national security implications of projected climate change, so that in the future, Congress can develop policies that protect U.S. interests around the world. I have said that the debate is not about whether we should take action, but rather what kind of action we should take. It would be irresponsible to attempt to develop a response to the physical effects of climate change without knowing what the potential consequences are. Our actions should always be based on a comprehensive base of scientific information and knowledge. Without this kind of information, we cannot effectively determine what the risks to U.S. national security will be. We cannot realistically design policies that mitigate these risks without this information. General Charles F. ``Chuck'' Wald, USAF, ret., former Deputy Commander, Headquarters U.S. European Command, has stated, ``This bipartisan legislation takes on an important emerging policy issue--the impact of climate change and national security. I support its call for a national intelligence estimate of the topic and authorizing the Secretary of Defense to conduct further research on the military impact of climate change.'' As I have said for many years, the way forward is to responsibly address the issue of climate change with a national strategy that incorporates economic, environmental and energy priorities. These issues are inextricably linked and changes to one will effect the other two. These priorities are also an integral part of U.S. national security. Risk assessment is essential to putting our national resources in the places where they will be most effective. This is even more important when assessing risk to national security. This legislation will provide information we need to continue to help make our country secure in the years to come. ____________________