Congressional Record: March 2, 2004 (Senate)
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IRAQ INTELLIGENCE
Mr. LEVIN. Mr. President, the question of whether or not the
intelligence was flawed which was used so forcefully by the
administration prior to going to war as the reason for going to war is
a question which is going to consume the time of this body and a number
of our committees for some time to come. It is a critically important
question as to whether or not the intelligence was flawed, not just in
terms of the accountability--which is so important if mistakes were
made, if exaggerations were undertaken in order to advance the decision
to go to war--but also in terms of the future security of this Nation.
This country went to war, we were told, because Iraq had weapons of
mass destruction. That was the reason that was given over and over
again by the administration. Whether or not there were other reasons,
and there surely were, for that decision, which could be argued as a
basis for the decision, the facts are that the American people were
told it was the presence in Iraq of weapons of mass destruction which
was the basis for attacking that country.
When a decision is made to go to war based on intelligence, it is a
fateful decision. It has ramifications and impacts way beyond the
current months and years. If the intelligence is as flawed as this
intelligence was, we should find out why.
Whether people are glad we went to war or are not glad we went to
war, whether history will prove we should have waited until we had
greater support through the United Nations in order to avoid the kind
of aftermath which we have seen, or not--we don't know what history is
going to show in that regard--but regardless of the arguments back and
forth as to the timing of it, the way in which it was handled, the
failure to galvanize the international community so we had a broad
array of countries with us, including Muslim nations so we would not be
there as a Western occupying power with other Western nations after the
military success; whether or not there was adequate planning for the
aftermath, and I think it is obvious that there was not adequate
planning, but regardless of what position one takes on all of those
issues, it is incumbent upon us to find out how in Heaven's name the
intelligence could be so far off.
How could we have 120 top suspect sites for the presence of weapons
of mass destruction that were high-level to medium-level sites, where
there was confidence that there were weapons of mass destruction either
being stored or produced, and we batted zero for 120? How could we be
so far off?
How is it possible that the CIA could tell us, as they did in their
assessments, that there were chemical weapons and biological weapons
and that a nuclear program was being undertaken again when, in fact,
that apparently is not the case? How is it possible that intelligence
can be as flawed as is this intelligence?
Again, regardless of what the arguments are on any side or any issue,
I don't think any of us should be in the position of arguing that it is
irrelevant to the future security of this Nation whether or not the
intelligence upon which the decision to go to war was based is
important. It is critically important.
Does North Korea have nuclear weapons or doesn't it have nuclear
weapons? Should we put some credibility in the intelligence community's
assessment of that? Where is Iran along the continuum of obtaining
nuclear weapons? What are their intentions? Should we put confidence in
the intelligence community's assessment of that?
Whether or not we place confidence or make decisions based upon the
intelligence community's assessment is critically important. The lives
of young men and women, perhaps the life of this Nation, could be
dependent upon intelligence which is being assessed by the intelligence
community. Life and death decisions are being made by the President of
the United States based on decisions and assessments and appraisals of
the intelligence community. When it is as wildly off as this
intelligence community's assessments apparently were, then it seems to
me we better find out for the future health of this country, not just
in terms of trying to assess the accountability for past assessments.
Something happened to the intelligence after 9/11. The pre-2002
intelligence assessments relative to nuclear programs and biological
programs and chemical programs were different from the October 2002
National Intelligence Estimate. Some of this has been set forth in the
Carnegie Endowment's recent report. There are so many examples of where
the intelligence shifted on these critical issues after 9/11.
A few examples: On the reconstitution of the nuclear program after
1998, the pre-2002 intelligence assessment was that Iraq had probably
not continued their research and development program relative to
reconstituting a nuclear program after 1998. Yet in October 2002, the
intelligence community said, yes, it has restarted its nuclear program
after the United Nations left in 1998. What happened between the pre-
2002 intelligence assessment and the post-9/11 assessment?
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What about enriching uranium for use in nuclear weapons? Prior to
2002, the assessment was that Baghdad may be attempting to acquire
materials that could be used to reconstitute a nuclear weapons program.
But after 9/11, in the October 2002 National Intelligence Estimate, we
have, yes, Iraq has imported aluminum tubes and high-strength magnets.
The Department of Energy's disagreement with this conclusion was set
forth, but the assessment of the intelligence community shifted after
9/11.
Whether they attempted to purchase uranium from abroad, the same kind
of shift in the intelligence assessment, there were no reports
mentioning any attempts to acquire uranium prior to that 2002
assessment, but in 2002, October, suddenly the National Intelligence
Assessment says Iraq has been trying to procure uranium ore and yellow
cake. Again, disagreement from the Department of State, but that was
the assessment of the intelligence community, and on and on. We have
this kind of change that occurred in the intelligence assessments.
What is the explanation for that? What happened? There is no
evidence, as the President has mentioned; there is no evidence that
Saddam Hussein was part of the attack of 9/11, so what happened that
caused the intelligence community to shift its assessment of chemical,
biological, and nuclear programs after the 9/11 attack on us? That is
something which we must find out.
We must make a determination--hopefully someday there will be an
outside commission which will make a comprehensive review of this whole
matter--but, in any event, we must do the best we can through the
Intelligence Committee.
I am making an effort, the Armed Services Committee, my staff, to
look into these issues, particularly as they relate to the question of
how intelligence affected the operations and the planning relative to
our military effort in Iraq.
But we must make that decision. We have an obligation. This is not a
partisan issue and it makes no difference to me whether this assessment
is finished before the election or after the election. It must be made
for the health of this Nation, as to how our intelligence community,
No. 1, could be so totally wrong relative to the presence of weapons of
mass destruction on Iraqi soil immediately prior to the war; and, No.
2, how and why did the intelligence community shift its assessments so
significantly after 9/11 from the assessments that occurred before 9/
11?
There is another aspect of this which relates to the way in which
intelligence was used or exaggerated by the policymakers. Here we have
another issue--an issue which is going to be looked at by the
Intelligence Committee at least as far as the use of the intelligence
is concerned up to the point where the war began. There are some recent
statements that I think also require explanation.
I have tried a number of times to find out how the Vice President
could have, about a month ago, made a statement relative to the vans
that were found in Iraq, that those vans were part of a mobile
biological weapons program. For the life of me, I do not understand how
the Vice President can make that statement when Dr. Kay who has looked
at the van has said that there is a consensus in the intelligence
community--and I am now reading from Dr. Kay's answer to my question in
the Armed Services Committee--that the consensus opinion is that those
two trailers were not intended for the production of biological
weapons.
How is it that the Vice President of the United States at about the
same time that statement was made before the Armed Services Committee
by the chief weapons inspector--that some trailers which were found in
Iraq are unrelated to a biological weapons program--would say the
opposite in a very public forum? What is the basis for the Vice
President's statement? I tried to find out. In fact, I wrote the Vice
President the other day asking him: What is the basis for your
statement?
We should know. The American people should know when the Vice
President says something as significant as that, that these particular
vans which we have now gotten in our possession are, in fact,
biological weapons laboratories. In fact, what the Vice President said
on January 22 on NPR was:
I would deem that--
Here he is referring to those two vans--
conclusive evidence that Saddam did in fact have programs for
weapons of mass destruction.
Again, this is so totally opposite from what our chief weapons
inspector has decided and said the consensus opinion is--that surely
the American public is entitled to an explanation from the Vice
President.
What is the basis for his statement of January 22 on national radio?
What is the basis, Mr. Vice President, for your statement? The American
public is entitled to know that. This is not some assistant secretary
of some agency sitting in the bowels of the Pentagon or the bowels of
some other building. This is the Vice President of the United States
who is saying on national radio that we believe, in fact, that those
semitrailers were part of the biological weapons program, that they
were biological weapons vans. There is no explanation forthcoming, just
sort of silence from the Office of the Vice President. We are entitled
to more than that.
One possibility which the CIA's Director suggested when I asked him
the question was that, well, maybe the Vice President was using old
information when he said that. If the Vice President of the United
States is making statements of significance based on old information,
first, it seems to me he ought to say so and then say, Too bad that
happened, I will make sure it doesn't happen again.
But it is also kind of discouraging, if that is true. There are daily
briefings which I assume he is a part of--at least weekly briefings on
these critical issues. We have a chief weapons inspector who says those
vans, according to the consensus opinion, are not part of and were not
part of the production of biological weapons.
But what all this is part of is kind of what is going to be phase 2
of the Intelligence Committee's investigation which is the use of
intelligence by the policymakers. Here the statements of our top
leadership go beyond the intelligence in a number of ways. They are
much more certain than the intelligence communities' assessments were.
For instance, the Vice President, on August 2002, said the following:
There is no doubt that Saddam Hussein now has weapons of
mass destruction. There is no doubt that he is amassing them
to use against our friends and against our allies and against
us.
We have this additional aspect which is now being looked into by the
Intelligence Committee and again by my staff on the Armed Services
Committee as to how the administration could take the intelligence that
was given and then turn those less certain findings into certainties.
Our friend from Arizona, Senator Kyl, made the point earlier tonight
that there is a lot of uncertainty in intelligence, and he surely is
right. But wow. It sure doesn't sound that way coming from the
administration prior to the war.
Vice President Cheney told Tim Russert: We know with absolute
certainty that Saddam is using his procurement system to acquire the
equipment he needs in order to enrich uranium to build a nuclear
weapon.
Secretary of State Colin Powell--and this will be my last comment--
said at the U.N.: There can be no doubt that Saddam Hussein has
biological weapons.
The list of these statements where there is no doubt and there is
absolute certainty that the administration says exists about these
programs goes beyond what the intelligence communities' assessments
were. It is those statements of absolute certainty which, it seems to
me, require an explanation as to what was the basis of those statements
of absolute certainty and there being no doubt, particularly in light
of the fact Senator Kyl pointed out that intelligence is, indeed, very
uncertain and should be treated that way.
I yield the floor.
The PRESIDING OFFICER. Under the previous order, the Senator from
Rhode Island is recognized for 30 minutes.
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