Central Intelligence Agency
Washington, DC 20505

8 April 2002

The Honorable Bob Graham
Select Committee on Intelligence
United States Senate
Washington, D.C. 20510

Dear Mr. Chairman:

Enclosed are the unclassified responses to the Questions for the Record from the Worldwide Threat Hearing on 6 February 2002.

Should you have any questions regarding this matter, please do not hesitate to call me or have a member of your staff contact Jeff Powell of my staff at (703)482-7642.

An original of this letter is also being sent to Vice Chairman Shelby.


The Intelligence Community's Ability to Monitor Terrorist Activity

1) What are the Intelligence Community's greatest strengths and deficiencies in monitoring terrorism? What lessons have you learned from September 11 to address any shortcomings? Do you all believe that you have sufficient resources to light the war on terrorism?

"The Axis of Evil"

2) In his recent State of the Union message, the President described an "Axis of Evil" consisting of Iran, Iraq and North Korea warranting continued U.S. action. What is the basis for assessing the threat associated with these three countries? From a counterterrorism standpoint, what is more threatening about these countries than others?

Measuring Success In the War on Terrorism

3) What is the analytic assessment of the relationship between the current war on terrorism and the level of threat from terrorism? Is the war successful, if success is measured in lowered threat levels?

The Continuing Threat Posed by Al-Qa'ida

4) What is the status of our efforts against suspected al-Qa'ida cells worldwide? How would you characterize the level of cooperation with the US from foreign intelligence services and law enforcement agencies with the al-Qa'ida target? With respect to cooperation with foreign law enforcement agencies, are we hampered by any lack of legal authorities or agreements? How much information has the Intelligence Community obtained on al-Qa'ida from US military operations in Afghanistan? How long will it take all this information to be translated and analyzed? Please characterize the nature and extent of this information. What, ft any, information have you obtained regarding possible future terrorist attacks or al-0a'ida possession of and ability to use weapons of mass destruction?

Bin Ladin's Whereabouts

5) What is the Intelligence Community's assessment of whether Usama Bin Ladin is alive and where he might be located?

Status of U.S. Objectives in Afghanistan

6) President Bush has indicated that among U.S. objectives in Afghanistan are the following: deliver to the U.S. all the leaders of al-0a'ida who hide in Afghanistan; release all foreign nationals, including U. S. citizens, who have been unjustly imprisoned; closing every terrorist training camp in Afghanistan, and handing over every terrorist, and every person in their support structure, to appropriate authorities; and give the U.S. full access to terrorist training camps, so we can make sure they are no longer operating. Please provide an overview of the status of compliance with these demands. What level of commitment will need to be made to Afghanistan to prevent it from once again becoming a breeding place for international terrorism?

Duration of the War on Terror

7) In his speech to the Joint Session Of Congress last September 20, President Bush said of the war on terror that "...[I]t will not end until every terrorist group of global reach has been found, stopped and defeated." In your opinion, how long will it take to obtain this objective?

Nations Supporting Terrorism

8) In his Speech to a Joint Session of Congress last September 20, President Bush stated that "from this day forward, any nation that continues to harbor or support terrorism will be regarded by the United States as a hostile regime." The Secretary of State maintains a list of countries that have "repeatedly provided support for acts of international terrorism." Currently there are seven countries on the State Department's list of state sponsors of terrorism--Iran, Iraq, Syria, Libya, North Korea, Cuba, and Sudan. How good is our intelligence on the terrorist activities of these countries? Has the Intelligence Community noted any increase or diminution of these countries' support to terrorism since September 11, 2001?

Tracking and Freezing Terrorist Assets

9) A major area of U.S. focus has been tracking and freezing the finances of al-Qa'ida and other terrorist groups. What have you learned about the nature and extent of terrorist financing that we did not know prior to September ll, 2001? Where are our most important information gaps when it comes to terrorist financing?

The Threat of Cyber-terrorism

1O) The FBI has issued a nationwide alert to law enforcement agencies and the private sector to prepare for the possibility of attacks against critical infrastructure facilities. Do we have any information that al-Qa'ida had the interest or ability to conduct cyberterrorist operations against the US? What terrorist groups are the likeliest to conduct such operations?

Nuclear Terrorism

11) Perhaps the most frightening terrorist tools are nuclear weapons--including radiological weapons which would disperse hazardous radioactive isotopes. What is the Intelligence Community's assessment of the likelihood that terrorists already possess such weapons? How confident are you that terrorists have not been able to successfully smuggle such nuclear devices into the U.S. already? (U)

Trying Terrorists by Military Tribunals
(for DCI, DIA, and FBI)

12) On November 13, 2001, President Bush signed a Military Order pertaining to the detention, treatment, and trial of certain non-citizens in the current war against terrorism. Please describe how the Intelligence Community is involved in this process, including the interrogation of prisoners.

Leaks About the Intelligence Community's Role in the War on Terrorism

13) Since September 11, 2001, there has been a significant amount of information in the press regarding the Intelligence Community's work on the war on terrorism -- particularly Afghanistan. How damaging have these public revelations been to the Intelligence Community's effort and what is being done to plug these leaks?

Possible Terrorist Use of "Conflict Diamonds"

14) The mining and sales of diamonds by parties to armed conflicts-- particularly Angola, Sierra Leone, and the Democratic Republic of the Congo-- are regarded as a significant factor fueling such hostilities. These diamonds, known as "conflict diamonds," comprise an estimated 3.7 percent to 15 percent of the value of the global diamond trade. Do you have any information that "conflict diamonds" are being used to subsidize the activities of terrorist groups, including al-Qa'ida?

The Situation in Iraq

15) What is the likelihood that Saddam Husayn will be in power one year from now? How good is the Intelligence Community's ability to ascertain what is going on in Iraq? What is the likeliest scenario for Iraq when Saddam is removed from the scene? How will Iraq and othe rneighboring countries react to Saddam's departure? What evidence does the Intelligence Community have that Iraq may have been involved in the 11 September 2001 terrorist attacks? If the US were to take military action to remove Saddam from power, what would be the likely reaction to this from US allies as well as other countries in the region? Is the Iraqi military's readiness at a high enough level to pose a significant threat to neighboring countries? What is the status of Iraq's weapons of mass destruction capability?

The Situation in Iran

16) What is the status of President Khatami's hold on power? To what extent has he been an agent for democratic reform? Would it be accurate to characterize Iran as being as democratic a government as any other nation in the Islamic world? What is your assessment of the nature and extent of Iran's support for international terrorism? Does Iran continue to provide assistance to Hizaballah in Lebanon and to Islamic-oriented Palestinian groups that oppose the Arab - Israeli peace process, such as Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ)? To what extent has the Iranian government provided support to the effort against al-0a'ida and the Taliban since September 11, 2001? Does Iran continue to receive weaponry & WMD-related technology from China, Russia, and North Korea?

Iranian Missile Capabilities

17) Last December's NIE on the ballistic missile threat states that "Iran is pursuing short- and long-range missile capabilities. Iran has one of the largest missile inventories in the Middle East. The Iranian missile program is designed to confront what specific security threats? Under what circumstances, if any, would Iran be likely to curtail its missile program?

Stability of the Jordanian Regime

18) How stable is the Jordanian regime of King Abdullah? What threats does King Abdullah face from Islamic fundamentalists? What is the likelihood that resurgent Palestinian nationalism will destabilize Jordan?

Saudi Arabia

19) How stable is the Saudi government? What factors would be most likely to bring about change in that country? To what extent are the Saudi government and public supportive of the US-led campaign against Usama Bin Ladin and terrorism? To what extent would the removal of US military forces from Saudi Arabia diminish anti-US sentiment both within Saudi Arabia and throughout the Islamic world?

Stability of the Syrian Regime

20) How stable is the regime of President Bashar el Asad of Syria? What are the most significant threats to his regime? What is the status of Syria's WMD infrastructure, as well as its support for international terrorism?

Qadhafi's Hold on Power in Libya

21) What is your assessment of Qadafi's hold on power in Libya? What is your assessment of Qadafi's ability to both further and frustrate Western policy objectives in the region? What is the status of Libya's weapons of mass destruction infrastructure, as well as its support for international terrorism?

Possibility of Support to Terrorists by the Palestinian Authority

22) Is there any evidence to suggest that the Palestinian Authority (PA) has been involved with or supported terrorist activities in the last year? Who would be the likely successor to Arafat as head of the Palestinian Authority? What is the likelihood that the Palestinian leadership will become more radical after Arafat leaves the scene?


23) What is your assessment of Vietnam's record on human, religiousand labor rights?

The Situation in Georgia

24) How strong is Edward Shevardnadze's hold on power? To what extent is he making a serious effort to end corruption and strengthen Georgia's economy? What is the status of Georgia's relationship with Russia?

Security of the Russian Nuclear Stockpile

25) What is your assessment of the safety and security of the Russian nuclear stockpile (including weapons grade material)? How does the security of the Russian nuclear stockpile compare to the security of the US nuclear stockpile?

Russia's Closure of Intelligence Facilities in Cuba and Vietnam

26) On October 17, 2001, Russia announced that it will close its large electronic intelligence base in Lourdes, Cuba, as well as its naval base in Cam Ranh Bay, Vietnam. What is the status of the closure of these facilities? What will be the impact of the closure of these facilities on Russia's relations with Cuba and Vietnam?

Chechnya and Russia

27) What is the status of Russia's effort against Chechen guerrillas? Do we have information about a Chechen connection to Usama Bin Ladin?

Russian Military Capabilities

28) If present trends continue, what will be the Russian military's capability to conduct operations 5 years from now? Do these trends indicate the possibility that Russia may soon have insufficient military force to retain order within Russia?

Transfer of Technology From Russia

29) What general trends has the Intelligence community noticed of scientists, technology, and conventional and unconventional military sales from Russia to other nations? What trends have you detected that Russian nuclear materials, BW, CW, or ballistic missile-related materials or technology, have found their way to the International black market? What is the current state of transfers of technology from Russia?

The India Pakistan Conflict

30) What is the likelihood that India and Pakistan will go to war within the next year? What is the likelihood that such a conflict would result in an exchange of nuclear weapons? Which nation would likely prevail in such a conflict? Why? What is the likelihood that both India and Pakistan will ultimately agree to accept the Line of Control in Kashmir as their international border?

The Situation in North Korea

31) What is the likelihood that North and South Korea will unify within the next five years? What is the likelihood that unification between North and South Korea will be a peaceful process? Under what circumstances would a war be likely? How strong is Kim Chong-Il's hold on power? Who will likely succeed him?

Cuba After Castro

32) What is the Intelligence Community's current assessment of what will happen in Cuba after Castro passes from the scene? Does the Intelligence Community believe that the resumption of U.S. trade with Cuba could hasten economic and political reform in Cuba?


33) To what extent is Colombia's weak economy--falling exports, lack of progress on fiscal reforms, high unemployment--having an impact on Colombia's government reform initiatives? What is the likelihood that President Pastrana will be able to reach a final settlement with the FARC within the next year?


34) Aristide has been confronting growing dissent. At what point will his hold on power be jeopardized? What is the likelihood that we will see an increase in Haitian migrants sailing for the US in the next year?


35) In the year since his inauguration, how successful has Mexico's President Fox been in bringing about an end to corruption, stepping up the fight against illicit narcotics, focusing more on human rights and generally bringing effective governance to his country?

Implications of US Withdrawal from the ABM Treaty

36) On December 12, 2001, President Bush notified Russia that the US intends to withdraw from the ABM Treaty - the withdrawal to be completed in June of this year. How will Russia react militarily to the US withdrawal from the ABM Treaty? What is the likelihood that the deployment of a U.S. ballistic missile defense will lead to the escalation of ballistic missile and tactical missile defense systems by other countries, as well as a commensurate increase in the number of ballistic and tactical missiles to overwhelm these defensive systems?

Surprise Missile Attacks

37) In his State of the Union speech, the President alluded to missile defense, noting a threat from surprise missile attacks. What is the basis for assessing this threat? What is the analytic assessment of the effect on threat levels if missile defense is implemented?

WMD Delivery Systems

38) What is the most likely delivery system of weapons of mass destruction (WMD) to be delivered by terrorists or states against the U.S.? Are the most likely adversaries of the U.S. acquiring weapons of mass destruction and missiles as deterrence or as an offensive military capability to use against the U.S. or its allies?

ICBM Threats to the US

39) Last December, the Intelligence Community released an unclassified version of the National Intelligence Estimate (NIE) which states that before 2015 the United States most likely will face ICBM threats from North Korea and Iran, and possibly from Iraq, barring significant changes in their political orientations, in addition to the longstanding missile forces of Russia and China. Please elaborate on the nature and scope of the ICBM threats to the U.S. from these nations. What is the Intelligence Community's assessment of the likelihood that there will be "significant changes" in the political orientations of these nations by 2015 to diminish the ICBM threat to the U.S.?

North Korea's Taepo Dong-2

40) Last December's NIE on the ballistic missile threat states that "North Korea's multiple-stage Taepo Dong-2, which is capable of reaching parts of the United States with a nuclear weapon-sized (several hundred kilogram) payload, may be ready for flight=testing." What will be the impact of the continuation of the North's flight test moratorium on the development of this missile? Under what circumstances would North Korea be likely to use its missile capability against the US? What is the current estimate of the size of North Korea's nuclear weapon arsenal? How confident are we that the North is complying with the terms of the 1994 Agreed Framework regarding plutonium production activities in Yongbyon?

Nonmissile Means for Delivering Weapons of Mass Destruction

41) Last December's NIE on the ballistic missile threat states that "[s]everal countries could develop a mechanism to launch SRBMs [short-range ballistic missiles], MRBMs (medium-range ballistic missiles], or land-attack cruise missiles from forward-based ships or other platforms; a few are likely to do so - more likely for cruise missiles - before 2015." Which countries have the capability to threaten U.S. territory with missiles from ships or other platforms? Which nations are the likeliest to do so? What is the Intelligence Community's ability to monitor this threat and provide early warning against an attack?

Foreign Countries Spying on the US

42) An area of concern is what other countries do to spy on US companies. Are more countries getting into the business of using their intelligence services to engage in economic espionage? How do you balance the benefits that come from collecting intelligence on economic issues against the risk that such collection - or even the mere allegation of it - could prompt other countries to retaliate by increasing their defensive measures, by spying in turn on US companies, or by becoming anti-American in policy discussions?

The Impact of HIV/AIDS and Other Infectious Diseases

43) What will be the impact of HIV/AIDS on Africa and other countries 10 years from now? Upon which countries is HIV/AIDS affecting the military and economy the most? Where do these trends seem to be heading in the long term? What other infectious diseases-such as tuberculosis, malaria, and hepatitis-will have the most impact over the next 10 years?

Assessing Environmental Change

44) How will global warming and other environmental factors impact the world's economy over the next decade? To what extent does the Intelligence Community monitor and analyze environmental changes in the world?

Public Disclosure of the Aggregate Intelligence Budget

45) For a number of years, individuals have advocated the public disclosure of the aggregate intelligence budget. In your opinion, what would be the specific threat to U.S. national security from publicly disclosing the aggregate intelligence budget?

Criminal Organizations and Networks

46) What is the likelihood that criminal organizations and networks will expand the scale and scope of their activities over the next 10 years? What is the likelihood that such groups will traffic in nuclear, biological, or chemical weapons?

47) Where will the Administration be taking the war against terrorism next?

Upon what criteria were the decisions made to expand the efforts to those particular countries?

What will be the anticipated effect on the countries in the coalition of these choices? (Explain each coalition country's reaction to each choice - Iran, Iraq, North Korea, other)

Criminal Organizations and Networks

48) With respect to each country that we believe is seeking to acquire weapons of mass destruction and the means to deliver them (intercontinental missiles), what intelligence do you have that shows what each of these countries believes will be the response of the United States if they were to launch against us? What are the US strategies to mitigate the WMD threat in each of these countries? What do we know about the likelihood that these countries would be deterred from using WMD against the U.S. it they knew they had a low chance of success, and that there would be a massive US response? How confident are we in the intelligence we have to answer that question? If we do not have a high level of confidence, how do you plan to acquire that information?