1996 Congressional HearingsIntelligence and Security
1996 Congressional HearingsMuch has been accomplished since the Dayton accords were signed December 14th in Paris. Although progress has been better than expected, many hurdles still must be leaped before we can be assured of long-term peace in the region. THE ACHIEVEMENTS ARE LARGE IFOR's operations have gone surprisingly smoothly as the military deadlines stipulated by the agreement have generally been met. The cease-fire held through winter and into the spring and summer, ending the bloodiest fighting in Europe since World War II. The warring parties withdrew from the territory they lost at Dayton, the armies have been demobilized and the weapons moved to cantonment sites. True, the demining of the country has proceeded too slowly, partly because of inclement weather and the lukewarm attitude of the former warring parties to clearing areas they were withdrawing from anyhow. Most recently, in June, the arms-control agreement mandated by Dayton was signed in Florence after protracted negotiations. With the apparent end of fighting, people are beginning to rebuild their lives and return to peacetime activities, thanks to the combined effort of 32 nations in IFOR. -- New shops and cafes are springing up, goods are becoming widely available, people are repairing their houses, children will soon be returning to school. Tens of thousands of people, albeit temporarily, have crossed the line separating the Serbs from the Federation. -- The first round of elections were held in Mostar without violence, and preparations for the September elections are in full swing. Forty-eight parties have registered to participate in elections, as well as numerous independent candidates for local elections. Over 30,000 candidates will be running for local, regional, and national elections. Polling also shows that a sizable majority of people across Bosnia believe the elections are important and intend to vote. -- Even on the troubling issue of foreign forces, there has been substantial progress. After receiving the assurances of the Bosnian government that foreign forces it knows of have departed, President Clinton recently certified the Bosnian government in compliance. The Administration has worked closely with the Bosnian government on this issue and will continue to do so. MANY HURDLES REMAIN Freedom of Movement: This issue will have significant influence on elections in the short run and the prospects for a multi-ethnic society in the long run. There has been some gradual improvement as the various parties have become more willing to allow other nationalities to cross the inter-ethnic boundary line to visit former homes or grave sites of loved ones. The problems arise when there is an attempt at a permanent return. All of the formerly warring parties have been guilty of this, have destroyed homes of other ethnic groups, and otherwise harassed each other's nationals to discourage permanent returns. War Criminals: The failure of the Croat and Serb ethnic groups to cooperate with the War Crimes Tribunal continues to be a problem. The U.S. intelligence community continues to provide information through the Department of State to the War Crimes Tribunal to assist in identifying and bringing to justice the perpetrators of war crimes and atrocities in Bosnia. As of now, there are indictments against 75 (18 Croat, three Moslem and 54 Serbs), but The Hague only holds six of them. A particular problem is that some of them persist in trying to remain politically active in contradiction of Dayton, which clearly states that anyone indicted by the War Crimes Tribunal cannot hold public office. Karadzic and Mladic: They are the most dramatic illustrations of the problem. After Dick Holbrooke's mission last week, Karadzic on July 19 announced he was relinquishing the power of the presidency of both the government and the party and would end his public appearances. As of July 22, none of the media monitored by the FBIS (Foreign Broadcast Information Service) have carried any comments or reports on Karadzic since the July 19 agreement. This is a positive step, but he must go to The Hague. Moreover, Ratko Mladic still remains free and in control of the army, Karadzic and the nationalist SDS party he headed have clouded the prospects for free and fair elections and the long-term development of a democratic Bosnian state. The party leadership was used to intimidate potential opposition, such as the leaders of the Bosnian Serb Socialist Party, who have been purged from local government and state-run enterprises and whose homes have been vandalized. Predrag Radic, the Banja Luka mayor, was kicked out of the local party after he spoke against Karadzic and announced he would head the Democratic Patriotic Bloc. This created a climate in which potential opposition figures felt too intimidated to voice dissent. Elections: Even if his announced departure from the political scene announced last Friday is real, and it is too soon to tell, that is only the beginning of working for free and fair elections. New SDS party chief Buha in an interview published July 22 in Der Spiegel noted that Karadzic would still retain influence in his country's politics. In all of the camps, however, the forces of nationalism are still in the ascendancy. The departure of Karadzic and hopefully Mladic from the scene is not overnight going to build a Bosnian Serb desire to remain part of a multiethnic Bosnian state. Even the more moderate Bosnian Serbs prefer to be more closely aligned with Serbia than Bosnia. Moreover, lacking a democratic tradition, none of the leading parties for either the Serbs, Croats or Muslims are doing more than the minimal necessary to give their opposition parties an equal chance in the elections. Throughout Bosnia, denying access to the print and broadcast media is the norm as is intimidation of opposition elements. Moreover, the opposition parties lack the know-how to mount effective campaigns. -- The Federation: Here too, the tendency toward separation rather than integration, particularly among Bosnian Croats, remains strong. For example, the lengthy effort to arrive at a Federation defense law reflects the reluctance of the extremist elements on both sides to share power with the other ethnic group. The Federation defense law took months to reach despite offering the carrot of equip and train; even then, key issues of chain of command were left unresolved and kicked further down the road. -- Brcko -- a potential flash point. After the Dayton negotiations were unable to resolve the disposition of the Brcko corridor, the final agreement included provisions for its arbitration. This area is of vital strategic interest to both parties and was the scene of ethnic cleansing in the first part of the war. Both sides even differ over the scope of the arbitration, so finding a satisfactory resolution for all by the yearend deadline will be a challenge. LOOKING TO THE FUTURE In the short term the threat of war is low. Recent polling (USIA) reveals that the Bosnian people -- Serbs, Muslims and Croats -- are tired of war and are ready to rebuild their lives. Open confrontation and violent clashes have become the exception rather than the rule in resolving inter-community disputes -- as evidenced by the recent election in Mostar. Nonetheless, the Bosnian people face enormous challenges in devising ways to live with each other in peace and creating lasting democratic institutions, especially after IFOR has departed the scene. -- After the elections in September, new institutions will be tested as they attempt to define their roles in relations to other entities and organization. There is a legacy of bitterness and a lack of democratic traditions to overcome. A key post-election test will be what happens if the absentee refugee and displaced person vote elects candidates in areas where the other ethnic group is now dominant. Will these elected officials be allowed to take their seats on municipal councils or cantonal sub-assemblies, power or will they become governments-in-exile? -- Although an arms-control agreement was signed, the willingness of all sides -- both in Bosnia and the other involved states -- to comply with the agreement remain untested. As long as they distrust each other, compliance may be problem. -- The powers of hatred and the still-fresh memories of the horrors of the war will be hard to overcome. The trend toward separation among the Bosnian Serbs and Bosnian Croats remains strong and will be difficult to reverse in the near future. As in the case of Western European recovery after World War II, economic integration will be the key to long-term peace and regional stability. (End text) NNNN